College Football

Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction, Odds, Expert Pick

Updated Sep. 26, 2024 4:29 p.m. ET

The No. 19 Illinois Fighting Illini (4-0) are 17.5-point underdogs in a road Big Ten matchup against the No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions (3-0) on Saturday, September 28, 2024 at Beaver Stadium. The over/under is set at 47.5 points for the outing.

The Nittany Lions won versus the Kent State Golden Flashes in their most recent game, 56-0. In their last game, the Fighting Illini won against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, 31-24.

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Penn State tight end Tyler Warren throws touchdown pass to Nicholas Singleton to extend lead over Kent State

Penn State Nittany Lions' tight end, Tyler Warren, threw a touchdown pass to Nicholas Singleton to take a 14-0 lead over Kent State.

Penn State vs. Illinois Game Information & Odds

When: Saturday, September 28, 2024 at 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: Beaver Stadium in University Park, Pennsylvania
TV: NBC
Live Box Score on FOX Sports

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Penn State vs Illinois Betting Information updated as of September 26, 2024, 2:47 p.m. ET.
Favorite	Spread (Odds)	Favorite Moneyline	Underdog Moneyline	Total	Over Moneyline	Under Moneyline
Penn State	-17.5 (-115)	-1020	+645	47.5	-112	-108

Pick by FOX Sports Betting Analyst Chris Fallica:

My tour of the Big Ten ends in State College, where the Nittany Lions are a bigger-than-expected favorite over 4-0 Illinois. This is one of those classic games that James Franklin will cover. He's 17-0-1 against the spread (ATS) since 2000 when favored between seven and 24 points. But on the field, I think they can have success throwing the ball and forcing the Illini to play from behind — something they really haven’t had to do this year. Nebraska had opportunities to get a stop and get up multiple scores on the Fighting Illini but just couldn’t do it. I think the talent level at Penn State is much better than that of Nebraska and expect the Nittany Lions to win by three touchdowns.

PICK: Penn State (-18) to win by more than 18 points

Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction

Pick ATS: Illinois (+17.5)
Pick OU: Over (47.5)
Prediction: Penn State 31, Illinois 18

Predictions are made by the Data Skrive betting model.

Learn more about the Penn State Nittany Lions vs. the Illinois Fighting Illini game on FOX Sports!

Penn State vs. Illinois Betting Insights

Per the spread and over/under, the implied score for the tilt is Nittany Lions 32, Fighting Illini 15.
The Nittany Lions have a 91.1% chance to win this contest based on the moneyline's implied probability. The Fighting Illini have a 13.4% implied probability.
Penn State has covered twice in three matchups with a spread this season.
Illinois has covered twice in three games with a spread this season.

Penn State vs. Illinois: Head-to-Head

Penn State and Illinois have been matched up evenly over their last two matchups, sharing the same 1-1 record.
The Nittany Lions and the Fighting Illini have been an even matchup over their last two games, sporting a split 1-1 record against the spread. In those two head-to-head matchups, the two squads have yet to go over the total.
In their last two head-to-head matchups, Penn State has racked up 48 points against Illinois, while giving up only 33 points.

Penn State vs. Illinois: 2024 Stats Comparison

	Penn State	Illinois
Off. Points per Game (Rank)	41.3 (51)	32.3 (41)
Def. Points per Game (Rank)	13 (11)	12.5 (19)
Turnovers Allowed (Rank)	3 (26)	3 (26)
Turnovers Forced (Rank)	5 (58)	10 (5)

Penn State 2024 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Drew Allar	QB	729 YDS (70.7%) / 8 TD / 1 INT 77 RUSH YDS / 2 RUSH TD / 25.7 RUSH YPG
Nicholas Singleton	RB	314 YDS / 2 TD / 104.7 YPG / 8.5 YPC 4 REC / 49 REC YDS / 2 REC TD / 16.3 REC YPG
Tyler Warren	TE	16 REC / 226 YDS / 2 TD / 75.3 YPG
Omari Evans	WR	8 REC / 205 YDS / 2 TD / 68.3 YPG
Jaylen Reed	DB	22 TKL / 1 TFL
Tony Rojas	LB	13 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 INT / 1 PD
Abdul Carter	DL	12 TKL / 2 TFL / 1 SACK
Dani Dennis-Sutton	DL	5 TKL / 0 TFL / 1 SACK

Illinois 2024 Key Players

Name	Position	Stats
Luke Altmyer	QB	862 YDS (71.4%) / 10 TD / 0 INT 58 RUSH YDS / 0 RUSH TD / 14.5 RUSH YPG
Pat Bryant	WR	20 REC / 309 YDS / 6 TD / 77.3 YPG
Kaden Feagin	RB	242 YDS / 3 TD / 60.5 YPG / 4.5 YPC
Zakhari Franklin	WR	21 REC / 243 YDS / 0 TD / 60.8 YPG
Xavier Scott	DB	10 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK / 3 INT
Gabe Jacas	LB	11 TKL / 1 TFL / 2 SACK
Dylan Rosiek	LB	14 TKL / 1 TFL / 1 SACK
Miles Scott	DB	10 TKL / 0 TFL / 2 INT / 2 PD