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Predicting the Rest of the 2016 Auburn Football Schedule
Sep 24, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Auburn football Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn calls a play during the fourth quarter against the LSU Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium. The Auburn Tigers beat the LSU Tigers 18-13. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Here we take a look at who is left on the Auburn football schedule and predict how the Tigers will fair against them as the season progresses.
Auburn football has survived the first month of the season with a couple of wins and losses, but now we predict how they will do the rest of the way.
We have a good idea of what the identity of this Auburn football team will be in 2016, and surprisingly enough it’s the defense that will determine the success of this team.
That’s hard to imagine after how poor Auburn defenses have played over the past two seasons. We now have a strong and healthy defensive line, and a solid secondary with a shutdown cornerback.
The defense is giving up just 18.8 points per game so far this season, and 385.2 yards per game. And those numbers come against three ranked teams and two very good offenses.
It seems like the Gus Malzahn and the coaching staff has finally realized that the best thing about this team is the defense, and they are game planning around them.
Against LSU they played conservatively on offense and milked the clock, which gave the defense time to rest and play effectively. That’s not something we’re used to seeing under Gus Malzahn, but it’s the best way for us to win in 2016.
Keeping that style of play in mind, we’ll take a look at how we matchup against the rest of the opponents on the schedule this season.
We’re going to skip over the ULM game as I’ve already preview that for you here.
I think Auburn has a very good chance of reaching eight or nine wins if they can do a better job of reaching the endzone on offense.
So let’s get into the previewing the rest of the season.
Sep 26, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs head coach Dan Mullen shakes hands with Auburn Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn after the game at Jordan Hare Stadium. The Bulldogs beat the Tigers 17-9. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Mississippi State
To me this might be the most crucial game of the season, or at least it will be up to this point.
The Bulldogs are a rebuilding team this year and they’ve already suffered a horrible loss to South Alabama. This is not a game that Auburn can be sluggish in and expect to win.
Mississippi State seems to have found a quarterback in Nick Fitzgerald who threw for over 300 yards and rushed for over 100 yards in their game against UMASS.
Auburn has faced plenty of duel-threat quarterbacks already this season, so I expect them to be ready for Fitzgerald.
They lost to LSU by just three points, and that’s after being down 23-3 at halftime.
I think Mississippi State is in the bottom tier of the SEC this year if you look at my power rankings, so this is a game where Auburn needs to separate themselves from that tier with a convincing win.
You never want to take these games for granted, especially considering that this game is in Starkville and will be Auburn’s first road game of the year.
However, I expect this to be an easy win for Auburn. Assuming they beat ULM, this will give Auburn their fourth win of the season and third in a row.
It’s possible Auburn could find themselves in the top 25 after a win on the road to Mississippi State.
Oct 24, 2015; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks defensive lineman Tevin Beanum (97) pressures Auburn Tigers quarterback Sean White (13) during the second half at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Arkansas
Going into the season I was counting this game as an easy win for Auburn after all the Razorbacks were losing on offense.
After four weeks it looks like Arkansas is among the top tier of teams in the SEC. Despite a loss to Texas A&M in week four, I think Arkansas played really well for three quarters of that game.
Austin Allen and Rawleigh Williams III are picking up right where Brandon Allen and Alex Collins left off last year.
Austin has thrown for 1,026 yards and 9 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions with a completion percentage of 66.9. Williams has rushed for 433 yards and 4 touchdowns with an average of 4.9 yards per carry.
The defense is a bit concerning for the Hogs though as they’ve given up 38 (two overtimes) and 45 points to the two power five teams that they’ve played.
If they’re going to have a good year in Fayetteville they have to do better defensively.
I still think Arkansas is in a rebuilding mode as they’re very close to being a 1-3 team instead of a 3-1 team. You still have to give them credit for winning those close games against Louisiana Tech and TCU.
Despite the fast start for Arkansas, I think Auburn matches up well with them defensively. I like our chances of keeping them at or below 20 points.
Our offense should be good enough at this point in the season to score at least 30 points on that Arkansas defense.
Oct 31, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Ole Miss Rebels Quincy Adeboyejo (8) and Auburn Tigers defensive back Jonathan Ford (23) battle for a pass during the fourth quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. The Rebels beat the Tigers 27-19. Mandatory Credit: John Reed-USA TODAY Sports
Ole Miss
I thought this game would be one that Auburn needed to win in order to get eight wins this year, but I think Georgia is the easier target now.
The Rebels have looked like the best team in the country at times having huge leads against Florida State and Alabama, but their secondary has let them down.
I thought this would be a difficult year for Ole Miss, and there was a chance they would shut things down after blowing a huge lead to Alabama. However, they showed some fight by coming out and destroying Georgia at home in week four.
That makes this a very scary team going forward as they possess the best quarterback in the country in Chad Kelly. He’s thrown for 1,235 yards and 12 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in 130 attempts. He’s averaging over 300 yards passing per game.
He’s also second on the team in rushing with 124 net yards.
Akeem Judd has been solid at running back averaging 4.7 yards per carry, but he’s not a vital part of their offense.
Evan Engram is a nightmare to cover as he’s already caught 26 passes for 397 yards and 3 touchdowns this year, averaging almost 99.2 yards per game.
Damore’ea Stringfellow is another excellent wide out with 14 catches for 211 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Despite how good the Auburn defense has been, they’ll have to be on their A-game to stop this Ole Miss offense that is averaging 40 points a game.
Ole Miss has a very strong front seven on defense as well with DeMarquis Gates leading the way. He leads the team with 30 tackles and 2 sacks. Marquis Haynes is a beast up front with 3 tackles for a loss and 2 sacks this season.
Auburn will have a difficult time running the ball against Ole Miss, and I’m not sure Sean White has the capability of taking advantage of their secondary.
I don’t like how Auburn matches up in this game, and I’m not sure we come away with a win on the road in this one.
Sep 10, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores running back Ralph Webb (7) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Middle Tennessee Blue during the first half at Vanderbilt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports
Vanderbilt
At the beginning of the season many people thought Vanderbilt would be a trap game for Auburn coming off a difficult game against Ole Miss with Georgia looming.
However, after four weeks it looks like Vanderbilt could be the worst team in the SEC. The Commodores have not taken a step forward this year like many people thought they would.
Last year they at least had a good defense that kept them in games, but they’ve been terrible in the past three games.
I don’t see their offense, which basically consists of running back Ralph Webb, having much success against Auburn’s defense.
I could see this being a low-scoring game in which Vanderbilt sticks around for a half, but I think Auburn will pull away in the second half for a comfortable victory.
Auburn’s defense is way too good to allow Vanderbilt to score enough points to put much of a scare into Auburn. The Tigers would have to completely fall apart in order to lose this game.
If Auburn did somehow lose this game I’d be OK with Gus Malzahn being let go immediately afterwards, but I don’t think either of those happens.
If this goes as planned, this would give Auburn their sixth win of the season, which would make them bowl eligible with three games left to play.
Nov 14, 2015; Auburn, AL, USA; Georgia Bulldogs running back Sony Michel (1) runs the ball as Auburn Tigers defensive back Carlton Davis (18) defends during the fourth quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Georgia won 20-13. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
Georgia
If Auburn does slip up and lose another game before now, that will magnify this Georgia game even more.
I still believe Gus Malzahn needs to get to eight wins in order to save that job, and he may need to beat Georgia.
Kirby Smart’s team is lucky to be 3-1 at this point in the season, and they do not look like a good football team.
They came from behind to beat a North Carolina team that hasn’t looked great this year. Then they hung on to beat Nicholls state in week two 26-24. Then it took a last second touchdown and five turnovers from Missouri to win that game.
They were finally humbled by Ole Miss in week four as they were blown out on the road 45-14.
This team will be really good next year and the years to follow, but this year’s team is not very good and we need to beat them.
So far they’re giving up 30 points per game, while only scoring 25.2 points per game. How is that even possible for a team that is 3-1?
If Auburn’s defense can slow down Nick Cubb and get some pressure on Jacob Eason, I think this will be a pretty easy win for Auburn.
The only scary thing is that this Georgia team will get better as the season goes on, and Auburn has to face them in November. If Auburn were to play them right now I think the Tigers win by two touchdowns.
However, it could be a different story come week 11.
Auburn and Gus need this game, and I think they get the win on the road.
Alabama A&M
I’m not going to go into too much detail here other than to say that this will be an easy win for Auburn the week before playing Alabama.
This will be the easiest game of the year, and our offense needs to score at least 50 points.
I would also love to see our defense pitch a shutout in this game to get everyone pumped up for the Iron Bowl.
This should be Auburn’s eighth win of the season and guarantee another year for Gus Malzahn at Auburn.
Feb 27, 2016; Tuscaloosa, AL, USA; View of the trophy as Alabama Crimson Tide football head coach Nick Saban and his team accept it during halftime against the Auburn Tigers at Coleman Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
Alabama
I would love to tell you that I feel confident about this game, but unless our offense improves drastically, I don’t see how we can score enough points against Alabama to win.
I think our defense is good enough to slow down Alabama’s offense. Their running game is not as good as it has been in the past.
Jalen Hurts is a dynamic play-maker, but he’s still a freshman. I think our defensive line will make him uncomfortable enough to make a few mistakes.
That Alabama defense has given up just 14.75 points per game so far this season though. Much like Ole Miss, it will be difficult to run on them, but if you have a quarterback who can throw you can beat them.
Unfortunately, Sean White has not proven to me that he can throw for 300 yards in a game. In order to beat Alabama you have to possess a quarterback that is capable of throwing for close to 300 yards and running for 100 yards.
I don’t want to say it’s out of the question that Auburn can come away with a victory in this game as there are plenty of times when the underdog in this series exceeded expectations.
My main reason for saying that I don’t think Auburn wins this game is because of our inability to score touchdowns on offense. You can’t field goal Alabama to death like you did LSU, you have to score touchdowns.
If Gus Malzahn and the staff can come up with a great offensive game plan, then I think Auburn can beat Alabama.
However, I’ve yet to see a great offensive game plan from Auburn this year.
Dec 30, 2015; Birmingham, AL, USA; Auburn Tigers head coach Gus Malzahn along with his team hold up the Birmingham Bowl trophy after they defeated Memphis Tigers 31-10 in the 2015 Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field. Mandatory Credit: Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports
Bowl Game
If Auburn finishes the season with an 8-4 record and a 5-3 record in the SEC, I think they get a bowl game on December 30. My guess would be the Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn.
That will match Auburn up with a team from the Big 12. I’ve seen teams like Texas Tech, Oklahoma and TCU projected for this position, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see West Virginia in this game.
Just about all of those teams have high-scoring offenses, and poor defenses, which is what the Big 12 is known for.
I think Auburn would easily beat a Texas Tech or West Virginia team if they bring their A-game. You never know how teams are going to respond in a bowl game.
Last year Auburn played their best game of the year in their bowl game when they destroyed Memphis.
It would be a much tougher matchup against TCU or Oklahoma, as they traditionally have pretty solid defenses.
I like the idea of going to a bowl game in Memphis, Tenn. That wouldn’t be a far drive for Auburn fans, and would be a neat place to watch a game on a Friday afternoon before New Year’s Eve.
If Gus gets to eight wins during the regular season then this game won’t mean quite as much. But if he only gets seven regular season wins, this game could determine his future.
That’s how I think this season will play out for Auburn football. Let me know what you think by commenting below or tweeting at us on Twitter @FlyWarEagle or on Facebook at Fly War Eagle FS.
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