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SEC Football: Bowl Season Primer, Predictions, and Viewing Guide

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 4:20 p.m. ET

Fansided, Matthew Bartlett/FanSided via Gig Em Gazette

Dec 3, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide wide receiver ArDarius Stewart (13) holds up an SEC logo after the SEC Championship college football game against the Florida Gators at Georgia Dome. Alabama defeated Florida 54-16. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

The SEC didn’t play its most dominant football this year, but it led all conferences with 12 bowl teams. We look at who, where, and what to expect in this year’s bowl season.

No other conference has ever sent double digit teams to bowl games in four consecutive season, except for the SEC. The 12 SEC teams going bowling this go around make it the second time in the last three seasons that the conference has sent a dozen teams. That’s also a record.

Beyond bowl eligibility, the SEC led the nation in several impressive categories. No conference had more All-Americans than the SEC. No conference had more teams ranked in the top 10 this season than the SEC. The SEC had more non-conference top 25 victories than any other conference in college football.

Last year the SEC finished 9-2 compared to a 5-5 finish by the Big Ten, a 6-3 finish by the Pac-12, a 4-6 finish by the ACC, and a 3-4 finish by the Big XII.

We break down the first 11 games in the slides that follow and make our predictions for the non-playoff games. The SEC has their chance to prove they’re no pushovers even in a “down” year for the conference.

***Stats from NCAA, ESPN, and Sports-Reference***

Nov 19, 2016; Starkville, MS, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs running back Aeris Williams (27) jumps over Mississippi State Bulldogs linebacker DeAndre Ward (28) during the first half at Davis Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports

St Petersburg Bowl

Miami (OH) Redhawks vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs

When: December 26th at 11 AM Eastern Time

Where: St. Petersburg, Florida

Venue: Tropicana Field

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

Despite the inability to clinch a winning record even with a bowl win, Mississippi State is a 14 point favorite against the Redhawks of Miami, Ohio. Miami (OH) became the first program in NCAA history to begin a season 0-6 and end the season on a 6-0 to clinch a bowl birth.

Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald leads the Bulldogs in passing and rushing. He’ll be facing a Miami (OH) defense that quietly ranked 26th in the nation in total defense – that’s better than nine SEC teams, including Mississippi State.

The Redhawks have won their last six by an average margin of 30-19. They’ll have their work cut out for them against a Mississippi State team that averaged 4.3 touchdowns per game. The bottom of the SEC wasn’t great this year, but it was still better than the Mid-American Conference.

Prediction: Mississippi State 38 – Miami (OH) – 23

Next: Camping World Independence Bowl

Oct 1, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Florida Gators tight end DeAndre Goolsby (30) is tackled by Vanderbilt Commodores inside linebacker Ja

Camping World Independence Bowl

NC State Wolfpack vs Vanderbilt Commodores

When: December 26th at 5 PM Eastern Time

Where: Shreveport, Louisiana

Venue: Independence Stadium

Watch: ESPN2 and ESPN3

This is one of the closer pre-New Year’s bowl games. ESPN FPI gives Vandebilt a 47.6 percent chance of winning. The betting markets have the Wolfpack as a six point favorite.

Both teams are 6-6 and have their flaws, but Vanderbilt looks to be the team headed in the right direction under third year coach Derek Mason. The team fell to 4-6 before rallying to win home games against Ole Miss and No. 17 Tennessee to clinch a bowl birth.

NC State came within a field goal of knocking of No. 2 Clemson. The kick was missed and that pretty much sums of the Wolfpack’s season. They played some good teams very close, but couldn’t make the play when it mattered, losing by seven to Florida State and by the same margin to Clemson. This Vandy team is scrappy and something tells me they’ll find a way to win.

Prediction: NC State 20 – Vanderbilt 22

Next: Birmingham Bowl

Oct 9, 2016; Columbia, SC, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks wide receiver Terry Googer (5) makes a catch during the game against the South Carolina Gamecocks at Williams-Brice Stadium. Georgia wins 28-14 over South Carolina. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

Birmingham Bowl

USF Bulls vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

When: December 29th at 2 PM Eastern Time

Where: Birmingham, Alabama

Venue: Legion Field

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

First year Gamecock head coach Will Muschamp, behind a signature win at home against an erratic Tennessee team, steered his team into a bowl game. South Carolina was picked to finish last in the dreadful SEC East, but had the luxury of games against Missouri, Western Carolina, and Massachusetts.

After going through several quarterbacks, the Gamecocks settled on freshman Jake Bentley. He played well, completing 63 percent of hiss pass for six touchdowns and two interceptions. He wasn’t asked to do too much, as the running game was the focal point of the offense.

USF, who recently hired former Texas head coach Charlie Strong, finished the season 10-2 under the lead of Willie Taggert. Taggert has since left for the Oregon. Interim head coach T.J. Weist is expected to be in charge for the bowl.

Quarterback Quinton Flowers, another dual threat signal caller, will lead the offense. He accounted for 37 touchdowns in the regular season and will look to add to that total in the Birmingham Bowl.

Prediction: USF 35 – South Carolina 14

Next: Belk Bowl

Oct 1, 2016; Little Rock, AR, USA; Arkansas Razorbacks running back Devwah Whaley (21) runs for a touchdown in the first quarter against the Alcorn State Braves at War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Belk Bowl

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. No. 22 Virginia Tech Hokies

When: December 29th at 5:30 PM Eastern Time

Where: Charlotte, North Carolina

Venue: Bank of America Stadium

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

The Hokies won the ACC Coastal Division before dropping a close conference title game to Clemson. It doesn’t come as much of a surprise then that they are listed as seven point favorites against an Arkansas team that finished in the middle of the pack in a depleted SEC West.

This year’s iteration of the Razorbacks is much more offensive heavy than in years past, ranking 49th in the country in total offense. Most of that came on the arm of junior quarterback Austin Allen, who was second in the conference in passing touchdowns (23).

Allen had to throw a lot this season to compensate for a defensive unit that was uncharacteristically poor. The defense gave up 6.91 yards per play, a mark that ranks among the bottom 15% in division one football.

They’ll be up against a Hokie team that proved to be very good on both sides of the ball this season. Virginia Tech outgained opponents by nearly 100 yards per game and won’t have a problem moving the ball in this contest. The over/under on this game is 62. Take the over.

Prediction: Arkansas 28 – No. 22 Virginia Tech 38

Next: AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Oct 15, 2016; Athens, GA, USA; Georgia Bulldogs wide receiver Riley Ridley (8) tries to prevent a tackle by Vanderbilt Commodores defensive back Bryce Lewis (30) during the first quarter at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Georgia Bulldogs vs. TCU Horned Frogs

When: December 30th at 12 PM Eastern Time

Where: Memphis, Tennessee

Venue: Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

This game is a toss up, at least that’s what the betting markets think. Although ESPN FPI gives the Horned Frogs a slight advantage, the game is currently a pick’em.

TCU quarterback, a Texas A&M transfer, Kenny Hill will likely prove to be the deciding factor in this game. He’s had an up and down season highlighted by a 15:13 touchdown to interception ratio. If “Good Kenny” comes to play TCU will have a chance to move the ball against a Georgia defense that’s already won a game on it’s own this season. The Bulldog defense scored the only touchdown in the program’s 2016 signature win against the No. 9 Auburn Tigers.

If “Bad Kenny” shows up this game will be over at the half time whistle. The key for the Horned Frogs will the rushing game, led by Kyle Hicks and Kenny Hill. Georgia struggled to contain Joshua Dobbs, so an effective zone read could be TCU’s best weapon.

The Georgia offense hasn’t been spectacular by any means, but it has been good enough to keep them in games. Freshman quarterback Jacob Eason hasn’t been anything special, but the running attack of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel has been down right frightening. Both possess breakaway speed and rush for at least 4.8 yards per carry. TCU has surrendered 21 rushing touchdowns this year.

Prediction: Georgia 28 – TCU 16

Next: Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers

When: December 30th at 3:30 PM Eastern Time

Where: Nashville, Tennessee

Venue: Nissan Stadium

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

Tennessee, once thought of to be a team of destiny, finished the season 4-3 after a 5-0 start. Their first two losses to No. 8 Texas A&M on the road and No. 1 Alabama at home weren’t egregious. Their final two losses came to a 6-6 South Carolina team and a 6-6 Vanderbilt team. Not as pretty.

Inconsistent might be the best word to describe the 2016 Tennessee Volunteers. Conversely, the Nebraska Cornhuskers have been one of the most consistent programs this season. Their three losses came to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Iowa.

Much of their success can be linked to quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr., whose status for this game is still uncertain. Armstrong Jr., a senior out of Cibolo, Tx, threw for 2,180 yards and rushed for 512 yards. In total he accounted for 22 offensive touchdowns.

His counterpart, Joshua Dobbbs, accounted for 35 touchdowns and led the Volunteers in passing yards (2,655) and rushing yards (713). The problem with Dobbs, and the Tennessee offense, is their propensity to turn the ball over. 25 total turnovers are tied for 113th in the nation. That’s what likely hurts them in this game.

Prediction: Nebraska 34 – No. 21 Tennessee 28

Next: Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

No. 20 LSU Tigers vs No. 13 Louisville Cardinals

When: December 31st at 11 AM Eastern Time

Where: Orlando, Florida

Venue: Camping World Stadium

Watch: ABC and ESPN3

This is undoubtedly the most intriguing SEC bowl game outside of the College Football Playoff. Heisman trophy winner Lamar Jackson will match up with one of the most tenacious defenses he’s seen this year.

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A hobbled Trevor Knight and the Aggies were able to put up 39 points against the Tigers who were missing a few key defensive starters. They’ll look to respond to that bruising by clamping down on Jackson. But will they be able to do it?

The LSU offense will be without Leonard Fournette, but that shouldn’t cause much concern. Why? Because backup Derrius Guice ran for a school record 285 yards when Fournette missed the Texas A&M game with an injury.

Both schools rank in the top 15 in the nation in total defense, but Louisville has a clear edge in the offensive match up. Jackson, who wasn’t playing his best football down the stretch will have some trouble with the Tiger’s defense. That said, he should be able to find a way to put more points on the board than the LSU offense is capable of against a good Cardinals defense.

Prediction: No. 20 LSU 24 – No. 13 Louisville 38

Next: Tax Slayer Bowl

Nov 12, 2016; Knoxville, TN, USA; Kentucky Wildcats running back Benny Snell Jr. (26) runs the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers during the first half at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Randy Sartin-USA TODAY Sports

Taxslayer Bowl

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Kentucky Wildcats

When: December 31st at 11 AM Eastern Time

Where: Jacksonville, Florida

Venue: EverBank Field

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

Kentucky head coach Mark Stoops will have had a month to get ready for Georgia Tech and the triple option. The Yellow Jackets have qualified for a bowl every year since 1997 until missing out on the post season last year. In their last 10 bowls they are 2-8. That would suggest that the element of surprise plays at least a part in the Yellow Jacket’s successes during the regular season.

The Wildcats are a team on the rise and they capped off their season with a victory on the road against Louisville. Running backs Boom Williams and Benny Snell Jr. became the first Kentucky teammates to both top 1,000 yards rushing in the same season.

The Jackets counter with 32 team rushing touchdowns and three players with 95 or more rush attempts. Quarterback Justin Thomas even broke off an 82 yard touchdown run this season. Georgia Tech is a four point favorite. Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I like the Wildcats in this one.

Prediction: Georgia Tech 30 – Kentucky 31

Next: Outback Bowl

Nov 19, 2016; Baton Rouge, LA, USA; Florida Gators linebacker Daniel McMillian (13) and defensive back Teez Tabor (31) break up a touchdown pass intended for LSU Tigers tight end Caleb Roddy (85) during the second half at Tiger Stadium. The Gators defeat the Tigers 16-10. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Outback Bowl

No. 17 Florida Gators vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

When: January 2nd at 1 PM Eastern Time

Where: Tampa, Florida

Venue: Raymond James Stadium

Watch: ABC and ESPN3

The Gators and the Hawkeyes might score 17 points in this one – combined. Both teams rank in the bottom third of the nation in scoring offense and scored less than 17 points in each of their marquee wins this season. Iowa defeated Michigan 14-13 and Florida beat LSU 16-10.

Iowa is a four point favorite. Coincidentally, the Hawkeyes average 27 points per game compared to the Gators’ 23 points per game. C.J. Beathard leads the Iowa offense and has been more productive than his Gator counterpart Luke Del Rio. Beathard had a 17:7 touchdown to interception ration while Del Rio threw as many touchdowns as interceptions, eight each.

The Hawkeyes would seem to have a better chance of stumbling into the endzone in this game, but either way it doesn’t shape up to be a very thrilling contest. The over/under is set at 40 points. Don’t hold your breath.

Prediction: Florida 13 – Iowa 16

Next: Allstate Sugar Bowl

Nov 5, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores wide receiver C.J. Duncan (19) is tackled by Auburn Tigers defensive back Markell Boston (11) during the first quarter at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

Allstate Sugar Bowl

No. 14 Auburn Tigers vs. No. 7 Oklahoma Sooners

When: January 2nd at 8:30 PM Eastern Time

Where: New Orleans, Louisiana

Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

Auburn head coach Gus Malzhan was on the hot seat in September. Now he’s playing in the Sugar Bowl. That just about sums up what its like to be coaching in the SEC these days. The Tigers got to New Orleans with defense. That defense will have to find a way to contain Heisman finalists Dede Westbrook and Baker Mayfield.

Oklahoma has been in the news for all the wrong reasons lately. Time will tell whether or not the Joe Mixon situation will be a distraction for the team come game time. Presumably, Mixon will be on the field and will be a key contributor to an offense that was third in the nation with 557 yards per game. The Sooners averaged a hair more than 7.5 yards per play.

The Tiger defense allowed just 18 total touchdowns this season and held opponents to less than 16 points per game. Led by junior defensive end Carl Lawson, the defensive front seven of Auburn is one of the best units in the country.

An elite defense versus and elite offense, this game should be a fun one to watch. The battle that I find most interesting will be the Oklahoma defense versus the Auburn offense. If Auburn is able to get the running game going they should have a chance to make this one interesting.

Prediction: Auburn 23 – Oklahoma 38

Next: AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl

Oct 29, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Trevor Knight (8) celebrates a touchdown against the New Mexico State Aggies at Kyle Field. Texas A&M Aggies won 52 to 10. Mandatory Credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl

Texas A&M Aggies vs. Kansas State Wildcats

When: December 28th at 9 PM Eastern Time

Where: Houston, Texas

Venue: NRG Stadium

Watch: ESPN and ESPN3

The Aggies were ranked in the initial release of the college football playoff rankings early this year. Kansas State has yet to beat a team this year with a winning record. Those two facts should be enough to write this game off as an easy win for the Aggies. Those who have followed this team might be less optimistic.

Two points was the opening line, but it’s moved up to three points in favor of the Aggies. Trevor Knight, who returned for the season finale against LSU, is healthy enough to play and the Aggie offense should be able to move the ball against Kansas Sate. Texas A&M will be without receiver Speedy Noil, who was suspended following an arrest for marijuana in mid-December.

What the Aggies don’t seem to have sorted out is their defense, and that’s where this game gets interesting. Dual threat quarterbacks Jalen Hurts and Nick Fitzgerald combined for 275 yards rushing and three touchdowns on the ground as well as 373 yards through the air and four scores.

Kansas Sate quarterback Jesse Ertz will look to follow in their footsteps. Ertz leads the Wildcats in rushing and passing as well. If he gets going there might be a shootout in Houston.

Prediction: Texas A&M 45 – Kansas State 42

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