College Football

Sportsbooks win big on Colorado's 'colossal' meltdown vs. Stanford

Updated Oct. 16, 2023 9:04 p.m. ET

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Patrick Everson

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

For anyone who bet Coach Prime and Colorado Over 3.5 on the regular-season win total, it’s a good thing the Buffaloes got there last week with their fourth win. 

Because after Friday night’s epic meltdown against Stanford, and with a challenging schedule remaining, Colorado could have a difficult time earning another victory this season. 

BetMGM trading team lead Seamus Magee and college football betting expert Paul Stone weighed in on Friday's shocking outcome.

From Blowout to Blow-Up 

Pre-kickoff, Colorado closed as a 13.5-point home favorite against Stanford. The Buffs led 29-0 at halftime. But Stanford scored the next 26 points, eventually tied the game at 36, then won 46-43 in double overtime. 

BetMGM noted that, pregame, Colorado had taken 80% of point-spread tickets and 83% of point-spread money. Bettors were even laying Colorado’s big moneyline price — in the -500 range — with 57% of moneyline bets/83% of moneyline dollars on the Buffaloes. 

In other words, Friday’s Colorado collapse was a healthy win for sportsbooks. 

"Just a colossal result last night," Magee said Saturday morning. "Handle was down compared to previous Colorado weeks, but it didn’t stop the public from betting on the Buffs." 

And the public seemed certain to be rewarded. The Buffs took a 14-0 first-quarter lead, bolstered by the return of Travis Hunter, who scored the second TD on a 24-yard pass from Shedeur Sanders. 

At that point, BetMGM’s live moneyline had Colorado a massive -10000 and Stanford +1450. Which means it would’ve taken a $100 bet on the Buffs to win a mere $1 ($101 total payout), while that same $100 on Stanford would’ve won $1,450 ($1,550 total payout). 

Working Overtime 

By halftime, Colorado was up 29-0. Stanford was seemingly buried. Until it wasn’t. The Cardinal outscored Colorado 36-7 in the second half, tying the game at 36 on a 46-yard field goal as time expired. 

After Colorado got a TD in the first overtime to go up 43-36, Stanford’s Elic Ayomanor made a circus catch over Hunter — in his dual role as a defensive back — to tie the game at 43. Then in the second OT, Sanders threw an interception in the end zone on third-and-goal at the Stanford 2-yard line. 

The Cardinal then ran the ball three straight plays on their double-OT possession, moving the ball from the 25 to the 13. And Joshua Karty booted a 31-yard field goal to clinch the 46-43 victory, the largest comeback in Stanford history. 

Season Killer? 

Colorado has a bye this coming week, surely needing it after that implosion. And it could turn out to be a season-killing implosion. At 4-2 heading into the Stanford game, the Buffs seemed all but certain to get to 5-2. 

That meant they’d be one victory away from bowl eligibility — a win that, worst-case scenario, could come at home Nov. 11 against Arizona. But now, Colorado needs two wins, and four of their final five games are against teams currently ranked in the top 20: at No. 18 UCLA, vs. No. 15 Oregon State, at No. 19 Washington State and at No. 16 Utah. 

Stanford Cardinal pull off comeback win over Colorado Buffaloes

Furthermore, unranked Arizona is no pushover. The Wildcats nearly beat USC in overtime and gave Washington a good game, as well. Both those teams are ranked in the top 10. 

Stone, a professional bettor who focuses on college football, expects Colorado to be an underdog against all but Arizona. 

"In all likelihood, Colorado will continue to get love from the betting public," Stone said. "But I see the Buffs running out of emotional gas as the season marches on." 

The tank may well have hit empty on Friday night. Getting to six wins and a bowl game will be a tough chore for Coach Deion Sanders and his Buffs. 

Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas

 

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