College Football

TCU vs. Michigan best bet, odds and how to bet

Updated Dec. 29, 2022 3:52 p.m. ET

The TCU Horned Frogs and the Michigan Wolverines will face off in the College Football Playoff (CFP) semifinal on New Year's Eve.

The Horned Frogs finished their season 12-1. The squad's only blemish was the 31-28 overtime loss to Kansas State in the Big 12 Championship game.

Michigan finished its season 13-0, including a 43-22 victory over Purdue in the Big Ten title game. The Fiesta Bowl will mark the Wolverines' second consecutive CFP semifinal appearance.

Will the underdog Frogs get the victory in Arizona, or will Big Blue win its semifinal and punch a ticket to the national championship?

Here's everything you need from a betting perspective on the game between TCU and Michigan, from the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and expert pick (odds via FOX Bet).

Read RJ Young's full list of 2022-23 bowl game predictions and odds

No. 3 TCU vs. No. 2 Michigan (4 p.m. ET Saturday, Dec. 31, ESPN)

Point spread: Michigan -7.5 (Michigan favored to win by more than 7.5 points, otherwise TCU covers)
Moneyline: Michigan -303 favorite to win (bet $10 to win $13.30 total); TCU +225 underdog to win (bet $10 to win $32.50 total)
Total scoring Over/Under: 58.5 points scored by both teams combined

Pick via Gambling Analyst Sam Panayotovich:

Let’s start by applauding TCU’s 12-1 season.

The Horned Frogs were better than Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, Baylor, Iowa State and Kansas State, which nobody outside of Fort Worth thought was possible. I mean come on, the Frogs’ season win total was O/U 6.5.

The bad news for TCU is that it now faces one of the most complete teams in college football. I believe Michigan has the edge in every single area. The Wolverines are a top-10 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency, their special teams are incredible, and Jim Harbaugh has pushed all the right buttons.

Most importantly, Harbaugh has instilled a toughness and physical style of bully ball that would even make Bo Schembechler blush. Michigan has dominated the line of scrimmage on both sides all season long, which makes life easier on the skill positions and secondary. And there’s no reason to think that will change on the biggest stage.

I think this one could get ugly.

PICK: Michigan (-7.5 at FOX Bet) to win by more than 7.5 points

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