Alabama Crimson Tide

Tennessee Football: Vols Were Four Plays Away from 11-1 Season

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 11:20 p.m. ET

Fansided, Caleb Calhoun/FanSided via All for Tennessee

Nov 26, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers head coach Butch Jones questions a call during the second half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Vanderbilt won 45-34. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Tennessee football finished 8-4 for a second straight regular season. But the Volunteers were very close to going 11-1. Here are a few plays that cost them.

After a Hail Mary pass to beat the Georgia Bulldogs got the Vols to 5-0 earlier in the year, Tennessee football fans everywhere figured that they had a magical season on hand.

But the series of fortunate plays that got them to 5-0 ended up turning against them. And a series of unfortunate plays the rest of the year turned 5-0 into 8-4.

Take out their loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide, where the Vols were completely banged up and had no chance.

They easily could have won the other three games they lost to the Texas A&M Aggies, South Carolina Gamecocks, and Vanderbilt Commodores.

And they could have remained in the College Football Playoff race until the end.

Really, if they could just have one of about three plays back in each of those games, maybe two plays back against Vanderbilt, they would have won them all.

Then we’d all be talking about how great Butch Jones is and the amazing job he has done with the program.

But, as Jones himself says, football comes down to just a few key plays. And many times, you don’t know when they are going to happen.

After all, the Vols got to 5-0 on just a few key plays at the same time. Now, we take a look at the plays that cost them to remind ourselves just how close they were to a great season.

We’ll first look at the key plays that cost them. But then, we’ll analyze the honorable mention plays in each of those three losses that could replace any one of those key plays.

Let’s start with the four key plays that kept Tennessee football from going 11-1.

Nov 26, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) is tackled for a loss by Vanderbilt Commodores cornerback Joejuan Williams (8) and linebacker Oren Burks (20) during the second half at Vanderbilt Stadium. Vanderbilt won 45-34. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

4. Joshua Dobbs Fumble vs Vanderbilt Commodores

This was a momentum killer. The Vols were banged up on defense the final game of the year, so they needed Joshua Dobbs and the offense to continue matching the Vanderbilt Commodores blow for blow.

For the most part, they were doing that, and Dobbs was deadly accurate. After all, he finished that game 31-of-34 for 340 yards, two touchdowns, and no picks.

But with the Vols holding onto a 34-31 lead with the third quarter coming to an end, Dobbs had a mistake that he was prone to making in his earlier years.

Simply fighting for extra yards cost him on a running play, and he fumbled the ball against the Commodores as time expired in the third. Vanderbilt recovered, taking the lead on the next drive and all the momentum.

Make no mistake, this fumble was crucial in more ways than one.

It didn’t just give the Commodores the lead. It gave them all the momentum. At that point, they were playing catch-up.

But Derek Mason’s team rallied in front of their Nashville fans and began to stiffen up on defense as well. This fumble is a huge reason Tennessee football was held out of the Sugar Bowl. But it also took another play in this game to cost the Vols.

Nov 26, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee head coach Butch Jones during the second half at Vanderbilt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amy Smotherman Burgess/Knoxville News Sentinel via USA TODAY NETWORK

4. Aaron Medley Missed Field Goal vs Vanderbilt Commodores

This was a killer miss. Right after Dobbs had his fumble and gave the Commodores a 38-34 lead, he drove the Vols back into Vanderbilt territory to his credit.

But the drive stalled against Derek Mason’s tough 3-4 defense, so they had to kick a field goal.

It was only a 37-yard kick, and Medley had a long history in Knoxville of being automatic on field goals under 40 yards.

But this one was a huge miss.

It clanked off the uprights, and the Tennessee football defense, which was awful all day, was tasked with needing to get a stop down 38-34. Of course, they failed.

This miss combined with Dobbs’s fumble cost the Vols at least 10 points. If they could have gotten those back, then the next time the drove into the red zone when they were down 45-34, they could have been driving only needing to kick a game-winning field goal.

As it stood, though, they had no chance.

Those two plays cost the Vols against the Commodores, and they fell to 8-4 instead of 9-3 as a result.

But while it took two plays to cost Tennessee football against the Commodores, only one play cost them in two other games.

Oct 29, 2016; Columbia, SC, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) rolls out against the South Carolina Gamecocks in the second quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

2. Joshua Dobbs Interception vs South Carolina Gamecocks

We could have pointed to any of the three turnovers that Joshua Dobbs had against the Gamecocks in this game. But we’ll go with his first interception since it was the one that put South Carolina in control.

When you’re facing a Will Muschamp-coached team, the rule is don’t turn it over. The Vols had the ball and a 7-7 tie facing a third and long. In that situation, you play safe, punt the ball and trust that you’ll get the ball back.

But Mike DeBord decided to let Dobbs try to make a play against one of the best pass defenses in the SEC. It cost the Vols.

Dobbs threw this interception in response, and it set up a South Carolina touchdown to give them a 14-7 lead.

Sure, he had other key turnovers, but they came later when the Vols were playing catch-up. This one happened with the Vols tied and still in control. So by putting South Carolina in control and forcing the Vols to play catch-up, it was the most critical play.

And had it not happened, South Carolina doesn’t score right there. Then, in all likelihood, the Vols win this game.

Had they won that game, they would have been going into the Vanderbilt game first in the East and in the College Football Playoff hunt. Perhaps the mentality would have been a bit different then.

But this final play is in a loss that started the downward spiral.

Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back Alvin Kamara (6) is brought down by Texas A&M Aggies defensive lineman Zaycoven Henderson (92) during the second quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

4. Alvin Kamara Fumble vs Texas A&M Aggies

You could choose one of about six different plays that cost the Vols this game in a double-overtime loss considering they had seven turnovers.

Any one of them would have resulted in a different outcome.

But the biggest one was the second turnover they had. Down 7-0, Joshua Dobbs hit Alvin Kamara on an out-pattern, and Kamara took it all the way down into the red zone with an amazing run.

While trying to make a play, though, he fumbled the ball. If he just goes down, the Vols score there in all likelihood.

This turnover meant more than the other ones simply because it ruined Tennessee’s chances of taking control of the game. After all, they got a stop on the next drive and then scored a touchdown.

So they easily could have gone up 14-7 rather than fall behind 28-7.

And if this turnover doesn’t happen, Tennessee football is 6-0 for the first time since 1998 getting ready to play Alabama at home. At that point, a loss to the Tide would have meant nothing, and the Vols would have had a lot more energy and excitement playing down the stretch of the season.

However, this isn’t the only play from the Texas A&M game the Vols would like back.

As we move onto the honorable mentions, we’ll start with plays against Texas A&M that could replace this one. And remember, if they have any of these back, they win this game.

Oct 8, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies linebacker Shaan Washington (33) sacks Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) during the second half at Kyle Field. The Aggies defeated the Volunteers 45-38 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Other Plays the Vols Would Like Back vs Texas A&M

There are numerous plays the Vols could use back against the Aggies that would have rendered the Kamara fumble unnecessary. Any one of these plays back would have resulted in Tennessee winning.

1. Joshua Dobbs Fumble

There was no score in this game at the time, and the Vols had the ball. But Joshua Dobbs fumbled on third and seven thanks to a great pass rush and hit from Myles Garrett. That set up Texas A&M’s first score and gave them early control. Without this fumble, Tennessee wins.

2. Evan Berry Kickoff Return Fumble

This play set the Aggies up for a two-score lead on the Vols. If Berry doesn’t fumble, they likely don’t need overtime. Dobbs’s and Kamara’s fumbles would not have mattered.

3. Dobbs and John Kelly Fumbled Snap

This was the play that gave the Texas A&M Aggies a 28-7 lead. Down 21-7, the Vols were driving to make it a one-score game early in the third. But Kelly ran the wrong way, causing a Dobbs fumble. Again, just like any of the other individual turnovers, having this one back would have won them the game.

4. John Kelly Fumble in the Red Zone

The Vols were down 28-14 at this point and had suffered four turnovers, but they were inside the Texas A&M 25-yard line with a chance to cut it to a touchdown lead again. But John Kelly fumbled on a running play that caused the Vols’ fifth turnover. Chalk up another single play that if the Vols had back, they would have won.

5. Butch Jones PAT Decision

This was a crucial mistake. The Vols had fought back to make it 35-34 in this game after six turnovers, only needing a PAT to tie with 40 seconds left. Then, on the PAT, Texas A&M jumped offsides. Butch Jones should have gone for two after that. After all, Tennessee was on the road and severely injured against a Top 10 team, meaning their chances in overtime were low. However, they were then inside the Texas A&M one-yard line after the penalty.

He had a much better chance of converting that two-point play and getting the win than the Vols had of winning in overtime. But he chose to decline the penalty and take the extra point. It was a big mistake. If he goes for two there, the Vols win and move to 6-0.

Oct 29, 2016; Columbia, SC, USA; Tennessee Volunteers quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) is brought down by South Carolina Gamecocks defensive lineman Darius English (5) and South Carolina Gamecocks defensive lineman Dante Sawyer (95) in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

Other Plays the Vols Would Like Back vs South Carolina

There weren’t as many unlucky plays that cost the Vols against South Carolina as there were against Texas A&M, but any one of these plays back also would have won them the game. Let’s take a look at them.

1. Failed Fourth Down Play

It was understandable for Butch Jones to go for the fourth down conversion here late in the second quarter with the Vols down 14-7. But the play was awful. Mike DeBord sent Dobbs on a rollout, rather than run right up the middle against South Carolina’s weak interior line. If Tennessee converts there, they likely score a touchdown on that drive. And it would’ve been all they needed to win.

2. Joshua Dobbs Fumble vs South Carolina

Knowing that Joshua Dobbs was having a bad game and that the Vols were running down South Carolina’s throat, Mike DeBord was still idiotic to have Dobbs throw the ball near midfield with the Vols down 17-14. And in an odd play, Dobbs fumbled while trying to throw it. South Carolina recovered and scored a touchdown on that drive. If Dobbs doesn’t fumble there, South Carolina doesn’t score. And Tennessee goes onto win.

3. Joshua Dobbs Interception vs South Carolina

Tennessee had 3:50 left in the fourth with the ball, down three, and all three timeouts. But on first and 10, Mike DeBord still insisted on throwing it with Dobbs. And he threw a pick. South Carolina was able to run clock on the next drive and give the Vols barely any time when they got the ball back. However, if DeBord stuck to the running game, it never would have happened. This was another idiotic play call.

Nov 26, 2016; Nashville, TN, USA; Tennessee Volunteers running back John Kelly (4) fumbles the ball during the first half against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Vanderbilt Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Other Plays the Vols Would Like Back vs Vanderbilt

Tennessee needed at least two plays back vs the Vanderbilt Commodores. But we already put the two most key plays in the top four. Here is one other they could use back. It could replace either one of the two plays we first named.

1. John Kelly Fumble

This happened in the first half of the game. The Vols were driving and about to take control of the game up 14-7. But John Kelly fumbled the ball inside the Vanderbilt 20-yard line. It was a killer turnover, but the only reason it wasn’t as bad as the others is that Tennessee got it right back with a Kyle Shurmur interception.

Oct 15, 2016; Knoxville, TN, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide defensive back Eddie Jackson (4) celebrates his punt return for a 79yd touchdown against the Tennessee Volunteers during the fourth quarter at Neyland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports

Plays the Vols Would Like Back vs the Alabama Crimson Tide

Nothing that Tennessee did would have gotten them a victory over Alabama. But assuming they had just some of those plays back that we’ve already mentioned from the other games, an 11-1 Tennessee football team with a closer loss to Alabama would have helped its College Football Playoff case, at least until the SEC Championship.

And the Vols definitely could have made the Alabama game close with a couple of plays. Let’s take a look at them.

1. Joshua Dobbs Pick-Six

This was a killer and gave the Tide a 14-0 lead over the Vols early. If Dobbs doesn’t throw this pick-six, Tennessee probably gets a field goal out of that drive. That would have made the score at least 42-10, which looks a lot better than 49-10.

2. Jalen Hurts Touchdown Run

This was a stop the Vols were so close to getting. It was second and long, and they should have had Jalen Hurts tackled, but they let him run down to the end zone. It was a play that put Alabama back in control. So now, instead of 49-10, we’ve got two plays that would have made it only 35-10.

2. Eddie Jackson Punt Return TD

This was another one that the Vols could have avoided. Down late, they allowed Eddie Jackson to return a punt for a touchdown. If they get that stop, Saban likely runs the clock out.

So three plays turned what should have been a 28-10 game to a 49-10 game. Sure, it’s still ugly, but it would have looked a lot better considering how injured the Vols were then. And assuming they would have gotten at least one of those key plays back in the other games, this could have been a much better year for them.