Texas A&M Football: 5 reasons Kevin Sumlin should be on the hot seat

Updated Mar. 4, 2020 1:41 p.m. ET

Fansided, Erich Hilkert/FanSided via Saturday Blitz

While Texas A&M football has above average for the past few years, there's reason to believe Kevin Sumlin should be on the hot seat.

After an underwhelming 8-5 season in 2016, Kevin Sumlin is officially on the hot seat. Sumlin arrived in College Station in 2012, riding a high wave after guiding the Houston Cougars to a 13-1 record and the top scoring offense in the nation. Five seasons in and Sumlin has hit a plateau.

Texas A&M has finished the last three seasons with an identical record: a pedestrian 8-5. During that span, the Aggies have lost to Ole Miss, Alabama and LSU. A&M is a relatively new member in the SEC, but its rivalry with LSU dates back to 1899. Sumlin has yet to beat the Tigers during his tenure at College Station.

Few teams have beat Alabama the last three years, three teams to be precise, so that is understandable. However, a team can't be at the top of the SEC if it loses three straight years to three different SEC opponents. Additionally, two straight bowl losses hasn't given A&M great confidence with a national audience.

Sumlin is on the hot seat because expectations are rising with Tom Herman taking over at Texas and with two high-priced coordinators, the offense isn't producing, the quarterback situation is a mess and has been for a few years now, and questions about recruiting.

Let's take a closer look at five reasons why Kevin Sumlin is on the hot seat.

Nov 24, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies wide receiver Speedy Noil (2) is unable to make a catch as LSU Tigers defensive back Donte Jackson (1) defends during the second quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

5. Higher expectations

With Tom Herman already talking about building championship teams at Texas, the pressure for Texas A&M to perform at a high level increased. This will be addressed further in a later point.

However, when looking at the Texas coaching staff, the names are all high-profile. Of course, there is Herman at the top with Tim Beck as his new offensive coordinator, Stan Drayton as his run game coordinator and associate head coach and Todd Orlando. All four coaches had success at Ohio State and its clear Herman and his staff are trying to emulate the championship pedigree honed during their time in Columbus.

Part of what is so mind-boggling for Aggies fans is the last three years the team has raced to a promising start and then fizzled at the conclusion.

In 2014, the Aggies started the season 5-0 before losing three straight SEC games and losing hope on a once-promising season. In 2015, the team once again started 5-0 before losing 3-of-4 SEC games. Last season, the team began the season 6-0. Few truly believed they would beat top-ranked Alabama, but it was the ensuing SEC opponents that sank the season with losses to both SEC schools in Mississippi by a combined eight points.

Not to say the losses can definitively be pinned on Sumlin, but close games magnify a coach's decisions and the outcome of the game is attributed more closely to the coach rather than a talent disparity.

Sep 24, 2016; Dallas, TX, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin on the sidelines during the game against the Arkansas Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium. Texas A&M won 45-24. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

4. High-priced coordinators

As illustrated in the previous point, most high-profile programs need high-profile coordinators. When you look across the SEC, most of the top programs have top-notch coordinators, sometimes two of them.

So, one can't fault Sumlin for working hard to attract two big-name coordinators. However, the pressure to perform at a high level grows significantly with a pair of high-priced coordinators.

While Todd Orlando and Tim Beck will receive healthy raises at Texas ($1.09 million and $790,000 annually, respectively), Texas A&M's defensive coordinator John Chavis is one of the highest paid assistant coaches in college football with his 2017 salary slated at $1.6 million. Texas A&M offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone will earn a base salary of $800,000 in 2017. Mazzone left UCLA and received a pay bump to join the Aggies staff.

Chavis has fulfilled his end of the deal in many respects. The Aggies experienced a significant improvement in his first season, allowing 22 points per game and just 166 passing yards per game (Chavis has always been known for developing talent in the secondary).

Meanwhile, Mazzone only has one year with the school, so he really hasn't been given a fair chance to implement his offense. That said, he needs better results in year two.

Nov 12, 2016; College Station, TX, USA; Mississippi Rebels defensive tackle Benito Jones (95) and defensive end Marquis Haynes (10) attempt to sack Texas A&M Aggies quarterback Jake Hubenak (10) during the fourth quarter at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

3. Lack of offensive production

The offensive production is down. In Sumlin's first year in College Station, the Aggies averaged 44.5 points per game. This number was in line with the visions fans had when he arrived fresh off producing the top scoring offense in the nation at Houston.

In 2015, the offense experienced a major regression. Jake Spavital "mutually agree" to part ways and went to California, while Sumlin managed to land Noel Mazzone from UCLA. Mazzone is well-known for developing an uptempo spread offense with a tall, dual-threat quarterback at the center. Mazzone improved the team's offensive production last season, as the Aggies scored 34.8 points per game, up from the 27.8 points per game averaged in 2015.

In games where Trevor Knight played at least 20 snaps, the Aggies averaged 38 points per game.

In all likelihood, Texas A&M will trot out a freshman at quarterback in 2017. If that is the case, it will at least be a quarterback Mazzone recruited, along with his son Taylor Mazzone, the Aggies quarterback coach.

Nov 7, 2015; College Station, TX, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Johnny Manziel is interviewed before a game between the Texas A&M Aggies and the Auburn Tigers at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

2. Lack of QB production

In Sumlin's first season in College Station in 2012, Johnny Manziel had a Heisman trophy season as a redshirt freshman. The Aggies went 11-2 and set up unrealistic expectations for Sumlin. Since then, the Aggies went 9-4 and three 8-5 seasons. Manziel's final season at Texas A&M was in 2013. The Aggies lost three SEC games by a combined 18 points, including a 49-42 shootout with Alabama.

Since Manziel left College Station, the Aggies haven't had much at quarterback. Kenny Hill had a promising start in 2014 but was replaced midseason by Kyle Allen. Later, he was suspended for violating team rules and eventually he transferred to TCU.

Allen fizzled midway through the 2015 season, prompting Sumlin to name Kyler Murray the team's starter. Murray and Allen announced at the end of the season they would transfer elsewhere. Sumlin earned a breather in 2016 by securing Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight.

Still, the pressure is on in 2017. The odds are good Mazzone uses a quarterback he recruited to guide his offense. That is a delicate situation, since it would require a freshman to lead a team with high expectations.

Sep 17, 2016; Auburn, AL, USA; Texas A&M Aggies head coach Kevin Sumlin looks on prior to the game against the Auburn Tigers at Jordan Hare Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports

1. Recruiting questions

Texas was down in 2015, while Baylor staggered to the finish line. Sumlin should have killed it on the recruiting trail with the class of 2016. He finished behind both. To be fair, the Baylor scandal broke almost immediately after signing day.

Also, it should be pointed out Sumlin signed a top-10 recruiting class this season, easily taking advantage of the Baylor scandal and Texas' turmoil pre-Tom Herman. However, the point is: Sumlin has to take advantage this season to keep the recruits rolling in to College Station. If Herman can turn the ship quickly in Austin, he could really pounce on the best recruits in the state and leave Sumlin reeling.

The pressure is especially high for Mazzone because the program has recruited highly touted quarterbacks in the past to less than stellar results.

Continuing to recruit a strong class will be enough of a challenge with Sumlin sitting on the hot seat. Often, recruits are reluctant to commit to a school with a coach on the hot seat. If Sumlin gets off to a hot start that should help, although we've seen how that's played out in previous seasons.