College Football

Texas A&M, Utah, Baylor next in line for College Football Playoff

Updated Feb. 24, 2022 4:59 p.m. ET

By RJ Young
FOX Sports College Football Writer

With the news that the College Football Playoff will not expand for at least four years, the question remains: Will any new teams earn entry into Club CFP?

It bears noting that only 13 of the 130 programs that play FBS football have put together a reputation pristine enough to make the VIP list and walk past the velvet rope.

Inside, The Champagne Room is even more exclusive, as just four teams have accounted for 21 of 32 total appearances at Club CFP: Alabama (seven), Clemson (six), Ohio State (four) and Oklahoma (four).

Those four teams make up just 3% of FBS football. But they’re doing 65% of the dancing at Club CFP.

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Club CFP is even more exclusive than its predecessor, the nightclub known as the Bowl Championship Series. From 1998 to 2014, 10 programs played in the BCS National Championship Game, and no team made more than three appearances in 16 years.

That team with the three appearances in 16 years: Alabama. In the CFP era, Nick Saban's squad has won three national titles in eight years.

It’s tough to get past the bouncer at the door of Club CFP. But here are the new teams I think have a chance in the next four years.

NEXT IN LINE AT THE DOOR

These teams are waiting for someone to leave the club because it’s at occupancy.

TEXAS A&M

A&M is perhaps the only program in the country built to join the exclusive Club CFP, despite having not won a conference title since 1998 or a national title since 1939.

Aggies coach Jimbo Fisher not only cemented the best recruiting class of all time this year, but also is one of just two former assistant coaches to Nick Saban who have beaten him. Fisher was the first — on Oct. 9, 2021, his 56th birthday — when his unranked Aggies knocked off the Crimson Tide 41-38 at Kyle Field with second-string quarterback Zach Calzada running the offense.

Calzada has since transferred to Auburn, but Fisher pulled in LSU transfer Max Johnson, who is expected to compete with 2021 Week 1 starter Haynes King for the job this season. King is coming off a leg injury.

Fisher also replaced defensive coordinator Mike Elko, now head coach at Duke, with DJ Durkin, who helped Ole Miss to its most successful season of the Lane Kiffin era last year.

Last season, A&M showed it can beat Alabama, and beating Bama is an enormous step to winning the SEC West crown. With the West division — and dare I say an SEC Championship — in the bag, it’s not difficult to see the Aggies earning an invitation to the CFP in 2022.

UTAH

Perhaps the most overlooked Pac-12 champion in recent memory, with the most underrated coach in the sport in Kyle Whittingham, the Utes could punch a ticket to the CFP this season with 11 wins and a conference championship.

But they’ll likely need to run the table in a conference that has been mostly ignored by the CFP selection committee since 2016. The Utes have won at least 10 games in two of the past three seasons and have had six 10-win seasons the past 12 years.

In the CFP era, they’ve fallen a game shy of earning an invitation to Club CFP. However, after playing perhaps the best bowl game of the season in 2021 (against a stellar Ohio State squad in the Rose Bowl), the Utes are in prime position to defend their Pac-12 title.

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BAYLOR

Dave Aranda’s Bears performed the greatest program turnaround since Scott Frost turned Central Florida’s 0-12 2015 team into a 13-0, national-championship-claiming one in 2017.

The Bears won just two games in 2020. They marked their first 12-win season in school history in 2021, winning the Big 12 championship and the Sugar Bowl.

With that season of success comes CFP selection committee respect. The committee has shown that it likes back-to-back seasons of excellence (see: 2021 Cincinnati).

If the Bears can put together another great season, there’s little reason to doubt that they’ll receive an invitation to Club CFP.

"HE’S WITH ME!"

These teams are likely to get through the front door because they know somebody.

USC

USC athletic director Mike Bohn hired Lincoln Riley expressly for this purpose.

Only Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney have made more trips to the CFP than Riley and Georgia coach Kirby Smart (four each).

Smart is 3-1 with two national title appearances and will begin the 2022 season as coach of the defending champs, while Riley holds the dubious distinction of making the most trips to the CFP without a win.

Winning a national championship is a far cry from earning a CFP invitation, but the initial task at USC is simply getting there. And Riley can do that.

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WISCONSIN

No team has appeared in more Big Ten championship games than the Badgers, who are tied with the Buckeyes for the most (six) since the game’s inception in 2011. But Wisconsin has won just two Big Ten titles and not a single one since 2012.

That means we’ve yet to see Wisconsin win the B1G in the CFP era. And until and unless the Big Ten changes how it crowns a champion — *cough* drop the divisions *cough* — that’s the only way Wisky fans are going to jump around at Club CFP.

In 2022, new offensive coordinator Bobby Engram is going to have to do his best to develop quarterback Graham Mertz into the kind of player many thought he could become when he committed to Wisconsin.

I don’t believe the Badgers can ride running back Braelon Allen alone to a Big Ten title, though I’m certain they'll try. After carrying the ball a total of 12 times for 49 yards in Wisconsin’s first two games last season, Allen finished with 1,268 yards on 186 rushes — including going 29 for 159 in the Badgers’ Las Vegas Bowl win.

Even if Allen becomes the greatest rusher in Wisconsin history — a tall task — the Badgers need a quarterback who can make plays when they need them. Right now, their best option is Mertz.

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IOWA

If it has never seemed like Iowa is the kind of program knocking on the door of Club CFP demanding entry, that’s in part because Kirk Ferentz does not find it a reasonable way of judging program success.

"If you don’t end up in that final four, you’re like basically chopped liver," Ferentz told The Athletic last summer. "I think college football is a lot more than that. I’m the older guy. I’m an idealist in some ways. There’s a lot of really good stories in college football, and they tend to get minimized a little bit."

He’s not wrong. But if your program ethos isn’t about winning national championships, it’s difficult for outside observers — namely me — to say you’re in position to chase that goal.

The Hawkeyes were fun in 2021. Their defense was a takeaway machine, and their trip to the Big Ten title game — the program’s first since 2015 and second ever — was no fluke.

But they’ll have to win that title game to pay the cover at Club CFP, let alone compete for their first national title in more than 60 years.

COMING THROUGH THE KITCHEN

These are the teams that could find themselves walking on the dance floor based on sheer luck — or sheer bravado, coming in through the kitchen like they own the joint.

OKLAHOMA STATE

Perhaps the only program in the country for which overachieving is a way of life, Oklahoma State has continuously done more with less and has been quite proud of it.

Mike Gundy hasn’t stumped for inclusion in the CFP, and Poke fans seem just fine with competing in the Big 12 Championship while a retroactive national championship banner hangs in Boone Pickens Stadium.

But the Pokes have been on a run of sustained success in the Gundy era, winning 10 games or more seven times in 16 years and never once suffering a losing season with him as head coach. With the talent at OSU’s disposal, that’s remarkable.

What could OSU accomplish if it recruited like its neighbor, Oklahoma? The answer might make a Sooner cringe.

FLORIDA

Like USC, Florida was a power in the mid 2000s. Urban Meyer combined coaching talent, recruiting acumen and star power to win national titles in 2006 and 2008.

Since then, Dan Mullen came closest to getting an invitation to Club CFP, in 2020, only to come up short with a loss to eventual national champion Alabama.

In November, the Gators hired Billy Napier — a Saban acolyte — hoping to rediscover a formula that allowed them to not just win but dominate in the SEC. The bet here is on Florida’s culture and fan support.

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TEXAS

Since playing in the 2009 BCS National Championship Game against Bama, the Longhorns have won 10 games just once. And they needed 14 games to do it. They’ve had six winning seasons compared to five losing ones, and they’ve gone through three head coaches in nine years.

But, as always, the talent is there.

Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian hit paydirt with former No. 1 overall recruit Quinn Ewers choosing to leave Ohio State after just one year. He also landed former Alabama tight end Jahleel Billingsley, who is so fast that Saban let him return kicks on the 2020 national championship team, and former Wyoming wideout Isaiah Neyor after a 2021 campaign in which he caught 44 passes for 878 yards and 12 TDs.

Add new wide receivers coach Brennan Marion, who coached Pittsburgh wideout Jordan Addison to a Biletnikoff Award, to a mix that features running back Bijan Robinson as the straw stirring the drink, and it’s easy to see how Texas could put up 50 on any opponent.

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But can the Longhorns stop their opponents from scoring 50? That’s something else altogether.

A bet on defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski in Year 2 must be made for the Longhorns to come close to challenging reigning Big 12 champion Baylor for the title. Also in the way are perennial Big 12 favorite Oklahoma and a stout Oklahoma State.

I’m betting the Texas talent and coaching combine at some point, though, and that’s why the Longhorns are listed here.

NEBRASKA

The Huskers have pedigree: From 1962 to 2003, they never suffered a losing season and won at least nine games every year except 1967, 1968 and 2002. That's nearly 40 straight years of excellence in a state in which the Huskers are the pro team.

Scott Frost, who won a national title as quarterback at Nebraska, understands the urgency to get the program back on track. It's why he didn't mess around following a 2021 season that was NU’s worst since 1957.

He purged most of his staff and brought in offensive coordinator Mark Whipple from Pittsburgh, where Whipple turned quarterback and likely first-round selection Kenny Pickett into a Heisman finalist and wideout Jordan Addison into a Biletnikoff Award winner.

Frost also hired wide receivers coach Mickey Joseph, who recruited and developed Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson at LSU, former Chicago Bears assistant Donovan Raiola to coach the offensive line and Bryan Applewhite to coach running backs.

NU has produced a 1,000-yard running back just once since 2014. Applewhite was hired to change that. He coached former five-star RB Zach Evans at TCU in 2020 and ‘21. Evans rushed for 1,063 yards on just 146 rushes, good for 7.3 yards per carry.

With transfers Casey Thompson (Texas) and Chubba Purdy (Florida State) vying for the starting QB position, and wideout Trey Palmer (LSU) in the fold, if pass-rusher Ochaun Mathis (TCU) joins the defensive line, it might not be much longer before Frost has the Huskers challenging not just for the Big Ten West title but also for the Big Ten championship.

PENN STATE

Perhaps no team in the Big Ten has felt more held down by Ohio State than the Nittany Lions. Unlike the rest of the Big Ten champions out of the East, they have never received an invitation to the CFP.

In 2016, after winning their first Big Ten championship since 2008, the Nittany Lions were forced to settle for a Rose Bowl bid. PSU has struggled to reach that high since then.

However, the program gave coach James Franklin a 10-year extension and raise last year. The bet here is on a long-term belief in his ability to identify talent on the field and in the coach’s box.

And then maybe, just maybe, Penn State can get an invitation to Club CFP and party like it’s 1986 — the last time the Nittany Lions won a national title.

MIAMI

The Hurricanes hit the reset button during the 2022 coaching cycle, hiring Mario Cristobal from Oregon. Cristobal is a Miami native, Miami alum and former Miami assistant.

The hire was a direct nod to a near-quarter-century stretch of excellence in the program’s history. From 1980 to 2004, The U won nine or more games 19 times, 10 or more games 14 times, four national titles and two Heisman trophies, with just one losing season.

Since 2003, though, Miami has won 10 games in a season just once.

Cristobal is an outstanding recruiter and has made three eye-popping hires since his return to Coral Gables. He brought in respected defensive coordinator Kevin Steele. He wooed Michigan offensive coordinator and 2021 Broyles Award winner Josh Gattis, who helped the Wolverines win their first Big Ten title since the Bush Administration (Dubya, not H.) and get their first invitation to the CFP. Finally, Cristobal convinced former Texas head coach Charlie Strong to take his first job as a position coach since 2009.

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Cristobal, Steele and Strong have all worked for Alabama coach Nick Saban, and that's not a coincidence.

Miami is located squarely in one of the most talent-rich regions in the country. If Cristobal & Co. can bring that talent in, The U will once again be one of the best programs in the sport.

RJ Young is a national college football writer and analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the podcast "The No. 1 Ranked Show with RJ Young." Follow him on Twitter at @RJ_Young, and subscribe to "The RJ Young Show" on YouTube. He is not on a StepMill.