College Football

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Prediction, odds, picks

Updated Oct. 6, 2023 6:14 p.m. ET

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The No. 3 Texas Longhorns (5-0) and the No. 12 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0) square off in the 2023 edition of the Red River Showdown on Saturday, October 7. The Longhorns are 5-point favorites. 

Facing the Kansas Jayhawks in their most recent game, the Longhorns won 40-14. Against the Iowa State Cyclones in their most recent contest, the Sooners won 50-20.

Which school will be victorious in this 119th edition of the rivalry? 

Here's everything you need to know about for the matchup between Oklahoma and Texas — the point spread, moneyline, total Over/Under and a pick from our betting analyst Geoff Schwartz. 

Texas vs. Oklahoma Game Information & Odds

• When: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 12:00 PM ET
• Location: Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Texas
• TV: ABC
• Live boxscore on FOX Sports

Texas vs. Oklahoma Prediction

• Pick ATS: Oklahoma (+5)  
• Pick OU: Under (60.5) 
• Prediction: Texas 28, Oklahoma 26

Pick Via FOX Sports Betting Analyst Geoff Schwartz

Dare I say it, but Texas is back! 

Texas has arguably the best win of the season, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and if the Longhorns can win against Oklahoma, it’s hard to make the case that they aren’t the title favorites. Texas is playing well this season because it has better players and excellent coaches. Steve Sarkisian got to Austin and completely revamped the roster, adding high-level players in the trenches that have given them the ability to win a game in the trenches, like at Alabama. 

Oklahoma has been fantastic this season, starting 5-0 and dominating its opponents. Its seventh in points per drive on offense and sixth on defense. However, Oklahoma has played five offenses that are nothing like Texas, and I think its defense could be overwhelmed by the size and speed of the Texas squad. Also, Oklahoma’s defense has been prone to a few explosive plays, and it ranks 83rd in tackle success rate. 

Translation: Texas is going to score in this game.

I think Oklahoma’s offense will generate some explosive plays against an outstanding Texas defense that has allowed some of those plays this season. But I do believe the Texas defense can hit the passer and tackles well enough to stop Oklahoma enough times to cover this game. Also, it is worth noting that Texas has been a favorite four times in this matchup since 2005. It has won all four of those games and is 3-0-1 against the spread. 

PICK: Texas (-6.5 at time of pick) to win by more than 6.5 points

Texas vs. Oklahoma Betting Insights

• Based on the spread and over/under, the implied score for the game is Longhorns 33, Sooners 28.
• The Longhorns have a 59.3% chance to claim victory in this game per the moneyline's implied probability. The Sooners have a 38.9% implied probability.
• Texas is 3-2-0 ATS this season.
• Oklahoma has compiled a 5-0-0 ATS record so far this year.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: Head-to-Head

• In their past two matchups, Oklahoma holds a split 1-1 record against Texas.
• In their past two matchups, each team has covered one time with those games hitting the over on the point total on one occasion.
• Oklahoma has been outscored by 42 points in its last two tilts versus Texas.

Texas vs. Oklahoma: 2023 Stats Comparison

Texas 2023 Key Players

Oklahoma 2023 Key Players

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CFB - Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns - 10/07/2023

Geoff Schwartz