College Football

They're ... back? USC, Michigan, others show trickiness of a quick turnaround

Updated Dec. 13, 2022 3:32 p.m. ET

share

facebookxredditlink

By Bryan Fischer
FOX Sports College Football Writer

Six seasons ago, Virginia Tech was a division winner that came within one score of knocking off the eventual national champion. The following year, Miami found itself in a similar spot after rising as high as No. 2 in the polls. 

Both were proclaimed as being back. Neither have really been anywhere near the same level since. 

At least we mostly waited until late October or November to start thinking they were on the path to reaching historical levels of grandeur. Texas beat Notre Dame in its 2016 opener to earn the label. The Longhorns fired their coach two months later, right after Thanksgiving.

Texas did eventually make a Big 12 title game and was re-proclaimed to be back after winning a Sugar Bowl a few years later. The win totals have hit reverse ever since. 

This sport is difficult. It’s chaotic and nonsensical. The only thing you have any faith in is a list limited to the words "Nick" and "Saban." That’s part of the reason we love it, curse it and embrace it each Saturday. 

It’s also why the inability of some of the most celebrated programs to get their act together is a source of such frustration. No matter how many new facilities, five-stars or built-in advantages, the return to glory is ostensibly on a path of one step forward, two steps back.

It doesn’t have to be that way, of course. Some programs are providing a path to being back and can share a few lessons along the way.

Breaking down USC's win at Oregon State

Joel Klatt explains why the Trojans’ defense is a problem and why the Pac-12 is a good conference.

Take USC, which is currently ranked sixth in the polls and trending far closer to College Football Playoff contention than ever since Pete Carroll left town.

The Trojans have done the usual when a blue blood needs resuscitation. They’ve hired an accomplished big-name head coach, amped up the recruiting staff and breathed life into a dormant fan base. The roster naturally went through a transition too, but crucially on a scale (or level) not previously seen.

Key members of a 4-8 squad under Clay Helton were shown the door. More than 25 players transferred in. Many were difference-makers at Oregon State on Saturday in a stadium that had previously been a house of horrors for the cardinal and gold.

USC had lost on three of its last five trips to Corvallis and was thrashed by the Beavers a year ago — OSU's first win at the L.A. Coliseum since 1960. It looked as though the Trojans were headed toward a similar outcome Saturday, albeit lower scoring, as the Trojans’ offense was held in check and the visitors were often on the wrong end of the field position battle.

Yet they found a way, in a manner that previous iterations of USC assuredly would not have.

A lot can be pegged on the influx of talent Lincoln Riley has brought in. The Trojans didn’t just add a quarterback, they added somebody who was both good and intimately familiar with Riley’s system in Caleb Williams. They didn’t just add a receiver to the mix, they added the reigning Biletnikoff Award winner in Jordan Addison.

Against the Beavers, Williams picked up a key fourth-down conversion with his legs. After just one catch coming into the final drive, it was Addison who caught two passes for 25 yards and the game-winning touchdown. Ex-Alabama transfer Shane Lee led the team in tackles. Eric Gentry, a freshman All-American at Arizona State in 2021, used his long arms to tip the game-sealing interception.

It's one thing to plug holes on a roster, it’s another to upgrade, coach and best position it for success. 

There’s not a lot of — well, any — of that going down in Coral Gables, as the Canes' splashy hire of Mario Cristobal has led to early buyer’s remorse following some questionable management against Texas A&M last week and, not just losing to Middle Tennessee State on Saturday, but getting blown out, 45-31.

"It was a butt-kicking from the very beginning," Blue Raiders head coach Rick Stockstill told reporters afterward.

"They coached better than us, they played better than us," Cristobal said. "They were better. We didn't do a good enough job. There's no excuse."

MTSU never trailed in the game and sucked whatever life Canes fans had initially with three early turnovers. Every time Miami scored or threatened, there was an answer — often in the form of a long touchdown.

Cristobal was brought in to instill toughness and discipline in the program that he grew up in, something Miami had been lacking for much of its time in the ACC. There was a breath of fresh air in South Florida when he finally boarded the plane from Oregon and hope it was a signal flare amid significant investment across the board at Miami. Josh Gattis was hired as offensive coordinator coming off a CFP appearance and the Broyles Award as the nation’s top assistant. 

Yet the Hurricanes have, if anything, regressed through four games. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has gone from ACC Rookie of the Year to being benched. UM has as many plays of more than 30 yards as Iowa, Georgia Tech and Colorado State. Northwestern and Vanderbilt are the only Power Five teams to give up more 40-plus-yard plays on defense. 

Just as concerning, they don’t look any different from some of the same teams that got Manny Diaz shown the door … or Mark Richt and Al Golden before him. If you’re looking for further confirmation, Miami has lost three of its last four games to Conference USA sides.

In contrast to USC, Cristobal’s roster management over the offseason was focused mainly on depth and added just a handful of players who were not even regular starters at places like UCLA and West Virginia. Even with loads of talent in The U’s backyard, that may be coming to bite the staff trying to get some swagger back in 2022.

At least Miami is attempting to show progress even if the short-term results are unacceptable. That doesn’t appear to be the case for a few others. 

Pre-pandemic, Wisconsin was in the Rose Bowl as part of a fourth 10-win campaign in five years. But its skid since 2019 was highlighted against Ohio State this weekend, with the Badgers failing to control the line of scrimmage like they once did and looking largely toothless offensively. Sure, tailback Braelon Allen rushed for 165 yards against the Buckeyes, but the bulk of that was off one run against backups at the Horseshoe.

You can pin a lot of the backslide on Paul Chryst’s inability to develop a quarterback or even dip into the transfer portal to land an upgrade. Is Graham Mertz really the best a regular Big Ten West contender can do? The third-year starter has passed for more than 250 yards just once in his career and completed just over 61% of his passes since arriving in Madison as a highly touted prospect. Not good enough in today’s game.

Chryst would do well to look west at another UW for guidance. When Kalen DeBoer took over at Washington, he knew he had a solid defensive base. He was brought in mostly to fix the Huskies' anemic offense –— a unit that had struggled even at the tail end of the Chris Petersen era.

Naturally, there were scheme tweaks and a more forward-thinking approach on that side of the ball, but it all clicked with the addition of Michael Penix Jr. from Indiana. He and DeBoer found success in Bloomington a few years ago and have recreated it with even greater talent on Montlake. 

In addition to moving merchandise, the veteran signal-caller now leads the nation in passing yards and has the Huskies off to their best start since 2017.

Nobody (yet) is calling for Chryst to move on in Madison, but would it ruin the Badgers to beef up the competition in the quarterback room?

That’s something Jim Harbaugh has done down the road in Ann Arbor. Michigan has had no issue winning games, but it’s in the big moments that have seen the maize and blue often come up short. Cade McNamara did well to raise the floor and lead the program to a Big Ten title as a junior, but there were still some obvious limitations in his game. 

Enter J.J. McCarthy, a former five-star who played some as a freshman last year. He was part of an open competition to be the starter in 2022 and did enough to earn the job in the non-conference slate. 

Though he was a little dodgy on Saturday as Michigan was tested by Maryland, McCarthy still leads the country in passing percentage and is just a tick behind Ohio State rival C.J. Stroud in passing efficiency. His mobility is an obvious plus, and the entire reason he’s been anointed the guy now is so that the Wolverines not only can get to another CFP semifinal but win one. 

Michigan impresses in win over Maryland

The Wolverines move into No. 4 on RJ Young's Top 25 after Saturday's victory over Maryland.

Quarterback is not the sticking point for Harbaugh’s old team, Stanford. It wasn’t long ago that nine wins was considered a down season on the Farm, but the Cardinal look several times removed from that era. Saturday was the program’s ninth loss by 20-plus points in the past four seasons, the same amount they had from 2008-2018.

You wouldn’t think that if you were an NFL scout though. Andrew Luck’s successor Kevin Hogan was a fifth-round pick and bounced around the league as a backup. Davis Mills is the Houston Texans' starter under center. Tanner McKee is viewed in a similar vein and one of the few bright spots the current team can build around. 

Head coach David Shaw, however, has seen the rest of the team regress — particularly along the offensive line. That contributes to rushing for less than four yards per carry against FBS teams in 2022 and ranking 118th in sacks allowed. The lack of explosive playmakers and first-round running backs is noticeable, too, and compounds the problem.

Not helping: an insular coaching staff that has failed to evolve over the years. Offensive coordinator Tavita Pritchard has been on staff for 13 years and was in high school the last time he played or coached somewhere other than Palo Alto. Defensive coordinator Lance Anderson has held the same title since 2014. Player movement is naturally non-existent as well.

Even scheme tweaks have been somewhat half-hearted. The Cardinal have lately attempted to run more of the "slow mesh" concept that has been popularized by Wake Forest’s Dave Clawson. Instead of potentially luring an assistant with knowledge of how to run it, however, the current staff simply tried to copy it off film and only devoted significant time to it in practice this month.

Put it all together, and it’s left plenty inside and out of the Pac-12 to wonder if the days of Stanford being a difficult out are fully in the rearview mirror.

It’s a similar question that’s also being asked at places like Boise State, Colorado and Georgia Tech. The whispers might become stronger at places like Texas, Notre Dame and Florida, too. 

The path to being back, it seems, is bumpy for some and just a tad easier for others.

Make It Make Sense

Saturday Superlatives

Best Player: Jaydn Ott, Cal

Team of the Week: James Madison

Goat of the Week: Mario Cristobal, Miami

Coach of the Week: Joey McGuire, Texas Tech

Heisman Five: 1. Brock Bowers (Georgia), 2. C.J. Stroud (Ohio State), 3. Bryce Young (Alabama), 4. Jalon Daniels (Kansas), 5. Blake Corum (Michigan)

Projected Playoff: 1. Georgia, 2. Ohio State, 3. Alabama, 4. USC

Tweet of the Week

Super 16

Here’s my ballot for the FWAA/NFF Super 16 this week:

1. Georgia
2. Alabama
3. Ohio State
4. Penn State
5. USC
6. Michigan
7. Utah
8. Tennessee
9. Washington
10. Minnesota
11. Baylor
12. Clemson
13. Kentucky
14. Oklahoma State
15. Texas A&M
16. Kansas

Just missed the cut: N.C. State

Best of the rest: Oklahoma, Wake Forest, Oregon, BYU, Florida State, Kansas State, Texas Tech, Oregon State

Pre-Snap Reads

No. 4 Michigan at Iowa (Noon ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

Something has to give in this game. The Hawkeyes have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season while Wolverines star Blake Corum leads the country with nine rushing scores. Michigan is more well-rounded and should have the edge, but this could be one of those low-scoring affairs where a handful of plays lead to the only points on the board.

No. 7 Kentucky at No. 14 Ole Miss (Noon ET)

This is supposedly a top-20 matchup of undefeated SEC teams, but neither has particularly impressed in the early going. The Wildcats do get back RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., which may be a key in jump-starting an offense that has been stop-and-go and needs a real red-zone threat (nine TDs in 17 trips). UK would be a slight lean, but it feels like every scenario is on the table between these two.

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX and the FOX Sports app)

The Bears looked like Big 12 favorites for the first time this season in beating Iowa State, but can they follow that performance up with what looks to be their biggest challenger for the title? Spencer Sanders has been efficient so far (10 TDs/1 INT), but OSU has not really been tested yet and doesn’t have anywhere near the defense it did in 2021. Look for Dave Aranda to have something up his sleeve again and repeat the result of the conference title game last December.

No. 10 N.C. State at No. 5 Clemson (7:30 p.m. ET)

Was that Tigers' offense against Wake Forest a flash in the pan or is DJ Uiagalelei getting back to the QB who was dealing as a youngster taking over for Trevor Lawrence? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle as they face a stiff test. The Wolfpack have had their eyes on this game all offseason and have been the biggest thorn in Clemson’s side for much of the past decade. It’s a night game in Death Valley, which will only amp things up in what should be the biggest ACC contest of the current campaign.

Read more:

- RJ Young's Top 25: Michigan jumps into the top four

- Heisman Watch: Bryce Young reminds us why he won it

- Michigan has weaknesses, but a true star to lead the way

- Top plays from Week 4: Michigan edges Maryland, Clemson wins thriller

- CFP, Heisman and other predictions from FOX Sports staff 

- Pac-12 is back in the spotlight, for all the right reasons

Bryan Fischer is a college football writer for FOX Sports. He has been covering college athletics for nearly two decades at outlets such as NBC Sports, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and NFL.com among others. Follow him on Twitter at @BryanDFischer.

share

Get more from College Football Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

in this topic

College Football

Alabama Crimson Tide

Iowa Hawkeyes

Alabama Crimson Tide

Kentucky Wildcats

Ole Miss Rebels

Alabama Crimson Tide

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Baylor Bears

Alabama Crimson Tide

North Carolina State Wolfpack

Clemson Tigers

USC Trojans

Caleb Williams

J.J. McCarthy

Jordan Addison

Washington Huskies

Michael Penix Jr.

Shane Lee

Eric Gentry

Ohio State Buckeyes

C.J. Stroud

Miami (FL) Hurricanes

Alabama Crimson Tide

Cade McNamara

Bryan Fischer