College Football

USC's turnaround under Lincoln Riley portends success ahead — in any league

Updated Dec. 13, 2022 10:53 a.m. ET

College Football and College Basketball Writer

LAS VEGAS — Before things went south for USC in what ended as a blowout loss in the Pac-12 title game, it was interesting to think about head coach Lincoln Riley’s team within the framework of the league it’s going to join in 2024. Every slashing scramble from quarterback Caleb Williams, every long reception from a deep and balanced set of skill players, every snap featuring four- and five-receiver alignments felt at odds with run-heavy offenses from the Big Ten that have been winterized for November football across the Midwest.

At 39, Riley is regarded as one of the brightest offensive minds in college football. His first regular season in Los Angeles after five years in charge of Oklahoma finished with the Trojans ranked fifth in total offense at 506.6 yards per game and third in scoring at 42.5 points per game. Ohio State and Michigan are the only Big Ten offenses that came within 50 yards and a touchdown of USC’s marks in both categories, and they did so in vastly different ways: an aerial attack from the Buckeyes under head coach Ryan Day; three yards and a cloud of dust from the Wolverines under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Irrespective of the end result at Allegiant Stadium, where the Trojans succumbed to an onslaught from Utah in a 47-24 loss that zapped their chance of reaching the College Football Playoff, the degree to which Riley overhauled his new program in a single season offered a taste of what he can do in the next handful of years as USC and UCLA exit the Pac-12 for monetarily greener pastures. The fusion of Riley’s exciting scheme with a hotbed of high-level recruits in California will bring a different flair to the top half of the Big Ten’s standings.

"There's a much bigger picture and outlook here of the progress that's been made in the last 12 months," Riley said in his postgame news conference Friday evening. "So we're not going to walk around like this is some funeral, all right? We've made some great progress to be in this moment. We expected to win tonight. We didn't get it done. But that changes nothing in terms of the direction and trajectory of this program."

The trajectory of Riley’s program is cinched to the roster-building prowess he’s shown in less than a year at USC by plucking gems from both inside and out of the transfer portal. Riley’s first recruiting class, which was finalized shortly after his arrival last winter, ranked sixth nationally after the Trojans finished 68th two years prior. He signed the No. 1 player in California when five-star cornerback Domani Jackson, who happened to be the fifth overall prospect in the country, chose USC over the recruiting factory known as Alabama. He added four more players in the top 300, with two of them hailing from the same place as Jackson: longstanding powerhouse Mater Dei High School, a 35-mile drive from the Southern California campus.

Twenty-six of the top 300 prospects in 2022 hailed from California, and three of the top six committed to USC. Nineteen of the top 300 in 2023 are from California, and two of the top five are committed to USC, with several players still undecided. Twenty-seven of the top 300 for 2024 reside in California, and two of them are already pledged to the Trojans more than a year before they can sign letters of intent.

His work in the transfer portal was equally impressive and accelerated the program rebuild. The Trojans finished first in the 247Sports Transfer Team Rankings with 20 total commitments and seven rated four stars or better in 2022. The list included Williams, who followed Riley from Oklahoma to USC, and five-star wideout Jordan Addison, the 2021 Fred Biletnikoff Award winner during his final season at Pittsburgh, where he caught 100 passes for 1,593 yards and 17 touchdowns. (Addison’s 2022 numbers with the Trojans: 54 catches, 810 yards, eight TDs in an offense featuring five players with at least 300 receiving yards.)

HIghlights: No. 11 Utah topples No. 4 USC

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The future seems just as bright, a fact certainly not lost on Riley’s future colleagues in the Big Ten. His 2023 recruiting class, which won’t be completed until February, has more five-star high school prospects (two) than Georgia (one), Notre Dame (one), Ohio State (one) and LSU (zero). The Trojans scored verbal commitments from wide receiver Zachariah Brown, the No. 4 overall player in the class, and quarterback Malachi Nelson, the No. 3 overall prospect from Los Alamitos, California. Nelson is the potential heir to an offense that produced two Heisman Trophy winners at Oklahoma (Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray) and perhaps a third later this month if voters believe Williams is worthy despite falling short in the Pac-12 title game. Williams, who injured his hamstring in the first half of Friday’s game, still threw for 363 yards and three touchdowns after finishing the regular season seventh nationally in passing (3,712 yards), tied for sixth in touchdown passes (34) and first in school history for rushing yards by a quarterback (351) since USC began keeping that statistic 70 years ago.

"In terms of guys I've coached at that position," Riley said after the loss to Utah, in which Williams was sacked seven times and hit three more, "maybe the gutsiest performance I've ever seen. Most guys wouldn't have even played. He still gave us a chance. We had to change the game plan, had a change lot of things on the fly. He just kind of kept battling and willed us.

"S---, that's as gutsy of a performance as you'll ever see."

There’s no question a portion of Williams’ success boils down to individual greatness — to his rare combination of dual-threat ability, a multi-angled arm release and the overflows of creativity outside the pocket that sparked so many of USC’s biggest plays this season. He should only get better as a true junior next season before likely declaring for the 2024 NFL Draft.

But the other part of his success comes from Riley’s offense, from the kind of relentless downfield passing attack reminiscent of what the Buckeyes can do with their star quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Trojans finished one spot ahead of Ohio State in total offense this season. They finished nine spots ahead of Day’s team in passing yards. The yards per attempt were nearly identical for both teams: 9.4 per throw for the Buckeyes, which ranked fourth in the country, and 9.2 for USC, which ranked fifth. Williams completed 29 passes that traveled at least 20 yards downfield; Stroud completed 25 such passes. Riley threw the ball 422 times and ran it 414 times; Day called 376 passes and 434 runs for a fairly similar ratio.

There were other Big Ten offenses from Purdue and Indiana that slung the ball from sideline to sideline and all four corners of the field this season, but neither of them can come close to what Ohio State does to lead the league in recruiting every year. The dangerous thing about USC is that Riley knows how to keep pace.

"The guys we have in the locker room now that are with us next year," Riley said, "we know what our mission is: It's to be in that same locker room (at Allegiant Stadium for the 2023 Pac-12 title game) and feel a whole hell of a lot different than we do right now. We'll bring in a couple of pieces that are going to help us on that journey."

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