College Football

Upsets, sleepers and dominant Ducks: What we learned from College Football 25 simulations

Updated Aug. 7, 2024 1:03 p.m. ET

The 2024 college football season will be unlike any before. With everything from reshaped conferences, established stars on new teams via the transfer portal, and the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff, it has never been more challenging to predict what will happen by the time a national champion is crowned.

Unless you use EA Sports' "College Football 25."

Thanks to the hit video game's "Dynasty Mode" feature, there is now a way to simulate the entire 2024 season to find out who will win the Heisman Trophy, who will take home the first conference titles of the new Power 4-era, who will reach the CFP, and who will win the national title in Atlanta on Jan. 20.

So, that's exactly what our team here at FOX Sports Digital did — we ran 50 different simulations of the 2024 season on "College Football 25." In order to get as many realistic, undiluted results as possible, we used default settings and chose lower-tier teams from Group of 5 conferences to "play" as in each dynasty file.

We did not recruit or play any games, but rather skipped ahead to the end of the regular season in order to find the Heisman Trophy winner, conference champions and CFP field. We then skipped ahead to the end of the CFP to find the national champion.

There were plenty of twists, turns, surprises and outright chaos. In our very first simulation, Rutgers reached the national championship game after securing the No. 8 seed in the CFP. The Scarlet Knights then beat Heisman winner Jalen Milroe's Alabama, one-loss SEC champion Kentucky, and Oregon, before losing to Michigan, which entered as the No. 11 seed and beat third-seeded Big 12 champion UCF en route to a repeat national title. That came after a regular season in which Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders threw 10 touchdowns in a single game, a 77-23 romp over Colorado State.

Like we said, chaos.

But over time, some undeniable trends emerged. One high-profile transfer quarterback kept winning the Heisman Trophy. One ACC sleeper team kept making deep playoff runs. And one former Pac-12 squad stood out among the entire field of 134 FBS teams.

Here's what we learned through our simulations.

National Champions

If video game simulations are to be believed, 2024 will finally be Oregon's year. The Ducks rolled to the 2024 national title in 18 different versions of their first Big Ten season — a whopping 36% of our simulations.

But Oregon was not the only Big Ten team who saw a consistent trend of success. Michigan won the national title seven times, second-most among all teams, and the Wolverines' archrival, Ohio State, won the third-most with five. That gave the Big Ten a whopping 30 national titles in 50 tries, all split among those three teams.

The SEC, on the other hand, only accounted for eight national titles — four of which belonged to Georgia, but none of which belonged to newcomer Texas (ranked No. 3 in Joel Klatt's preseason Top 25) or the conference's winningest program, Alabama (ranked No. 8 by Klatt). The new-look playoff was not kind to the Crimson Tide, who failed to emerge victorious despite making the 12-team field in 30 of our simulations.

Power 4 Conference Champions

Oregon dominated this list by winning the Big Ten title in 27 of our simulations. Most of the time, the Big Ten championship came down to a combination of the Ducks, Ohio State (who won 12 times) and Michigan, who actually had fewer Big Ten titles (six) than national titles (seven) in our simulations. Other well-regarded teams like Penn State (No. 10 in Klatt's rankings) and USC (No. 14) failed to win a single Big Ten title, while several longer shots did — including Maryland twice, Nebraska twice and Purdue once.

Despite coming up short in the postseason, Alabama had the most SEC titles with 15, followed by Georgia with 12. A bit of a surprise is that Texas A&M (No. 25 in Klatt's rankings) won the conference seven times – third most among SEC teams.

Utah, the preseason Big 12 favorite (+320), is the only team to win the conference in 10 or more of our sims, doing so 13 times. Oklahoma State (nine), Kansas State (seven), Texas Tech (six) and Colorado (five) are the next most frequent Big 12 champions.

The ACC is much more wide open. Clemson had the most titles in our simulations with 12, followed by Miami with 11 and NC State — more on the Wolfpack later — with nine. Surprisingly, Florida State (ranked No. 13 by Klatt) finished with as many ACC titles (five) as unranked Boston College — which, unlike the Seminoles, went on to win a national title one of those times.

Playoff Berths

A grand total of 70 teams made the playoff, ranging from Oregon (45 berths) to Group of 5 long shots like Central Michigan, Jacksonville State, Old Dominion, Colorado State and Western Kentucky. Of those 70, 20 made the playoff at least 10 times – 20% of our simulations.

That list includes, in order of frequency: Oregon, Ohio State, Michigan, Georgia, Alabama, Notre Dame, Clemson, Texas A&M, NC State, Miami, Utah, Oklahoma State, Penn State, Texas, Tulane, Florida State, Kansas State, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and USC.

Tulane is the only Group of 5 team to make that cut, perhaps signifying that the Green Wave are the biggest favorites to be the group's designated representative in this year's playoff. Other frequent Group of 5 appearances came from Memphis, Appalachian State, North Texas and Miami (Ohio).

The most notable omission was TCU, a program less than two years removed from a national title runner-up showing. Last year's runner-up, Washington, just barely outdid TCU, making the playoff once in its first Big Ten season. Iowa, which reached the Big Ten title game last year and is No. 24 in Klatt's preseason rankings, reached the playoff just twice. That's fewer than Rutgers (three times), Nebraska (four times) and Maryland (six times).

Missouri (No. 11 in Klatt's rankings) and Tennessee (No. 18) also only reached the CFP twice each, meaning they had fewer playoff trips combined in our simulations than SEC rivals Florida (five berths) and Kentucky (six berths).

Best team: Oregon

As you can probably guess by now, the best overall team in "College Football 25" is the high-flying, NIL-flexing, Lamborghini-driving Oregon Ducks. Led by quarterback Dillon Gabriel (rated 92 overall in the game), Oregon dominated in terms of national titles, Big Ten titles and College Football Playoff berths, making the 12-team field 45 times, a whopping 90% of our simulations.

Oregon also had the most No. 1 overall seeds of any team in our simulations, achieving that status 21 times. Even in seasons where Oregon did not reach the national title, the Ducks were usually eliminated by a one-score game in the later rounds of the playoff.

Not only does Oregon (No. 4 in Joel Klatt's preseason rankings) have one of college football's most talented rosters in real life, but nearly every player on the team's projected two-deep opted into having their name and likeness in the game, per The Oregonian.

Biggest Surprise: NC State

When simulating a season of a sport as dramatic as college football, there are bound to be shockers. Florida, Boston College, Virginia Tech and Appalachian State all won national titles. Houston reached the playoff just once — and made it to the national title game before losing to Michigan. Texas State also reached the title game one year. North Texas, Memphis, Rutgers, Boise State and Nebraska also reached national title games but finished as runners-up.

But no team outside of Joel Klatt's Top 25 continually impressed in our simulations like NC State did. The Wolfpack reached the 12-team playoff in 22 of our simulations, won the ACC in 11 of them, made the national championship four times and won it all twice.

The game is also high on Wolfpack quarterback Grayson McCall, a graduate transfer from Coastal Carolina. McCall won the Heisman three times in our simulations, including once where he threw for over 4,000 yards. Top pass-catcher Dacari Collins was also one of the game's most decorated wide receivers, even winning the Heisman himself one time.

Biggest Disappointments: Texas and Ole Miss

Coming off a triumphant season where they won the Big 12 on the way out and reached the College Football Playoff for the first time, the Longhorns were the most underwhelming team in our simulations, despite being one of the highest-rated in "College Football 25." Texas made the College Football Playoff 14 times in our simulations, more in line with the teams ranked No. 10-No. 20 in Klatt's preseason Top 25, instead of No. 3. Furthermore, the team's highest finish was a national title game loss to Oklahoma State.

Ole Miss, ranked No. 5 by Klatt, was also underwhelming with just nine playoff appearances. At least Jaxson Dart & Co. did win one national title, which is one more than Alabama, Miami or Penn State can claim in our simulations. As mentioned, the Nittany Lions did not even win a Big Ten title in 50 tries.

Heisman Trophy results

Ohio State quarterback Will Howard took home the Heisman Trophy eight times, most of which came with some eye-popping stats. Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe was just behind Howard with seven, followed by Georgia's Carson Beck and Oregon's Dillon Gabriel at four apiece.

As mentioned, the game loves NC State quarterback Grayson McCall, awarding him the Heisman three times. That ties him with Clemson QB Cade Klubnik — and Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who "College Football 25" believes can pull a 2020 DeVonta Smith and win a Heisman as a pass catcher.

In one of the more stunning developments of this entire project, several other wide receivers won Heisman Trophies, including Baylor wideout Ketron Jackson Jr., even though the Bears never so much as sniffed a playoff spot in 50 tries.

Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders also took home a Heisman Trophy, but just one. The Buffaloes star and youngest son of Deion "Coach Prime" Sanders might have a custom watch flex for his character built into the game as a celebration option, but it took until one of our final simulations for Shedeur to win a Heisman after finishing as a finalist eight times.

Shockingly, despite the game's habit of awarding the Heisman to a wide receiver, two-way Colorado star and "College Football 25" cover athlete Travis Hunter was never even a finalist for the award. Neither was fellow cover star Quinn Ewers. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava and Oklahoma quarterback Jackson Arnold, among the preseason betting favorites on DraftKings to win the 2024 Heisman, were finalists in multiple simulations but failed to bring home the award.

The Chaos Sim

What college football simulation project is complete without a season of pure, unadulterated chaos? We got ours, appropriately, with our 13th simulation.

Here's what happened:

Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos received first-team All-American honors and finished above Shedeur Sanders in Heisman voting.
ACC newcomer SMU won the conference title game over Boston College, but at 9-4, was not ranked inside the Top 25 and thus missed the playoff. That allowed Sun Belt champion Appalachian State to get the No. 4 seed and a first-round bye.
No. 12 Western Kentucky, the Conference USA champion, defeated No. 5 Oklahoma, 23-21, in Norman.
No. 4 Appalachian State scored 14 unanswered points in the fourth quarter of the Peach Bowl to beat No. 12 Western Kentucky, 34-24.
No. 4 Appalachian State defeated Heisman winner Will Howard and No. 1 Ohio State, 38-35, on a last-second field goal in the Orange Bowl.
No. 4 Appalachian State defeated Georgia, 46-35, in the national championship. The Mountaineers' defense got two pick-sixes off of Georgia's Carson Beck, while QB Joey Aguilar threw for 326 yards and three touchdowns against the Bulldogs' defense.