Houston Christian Huskies

Why the College Football Playoff race could use more chaos

Published Nov. 15, 2016 3:24 p.m. ET

Stewart Mandel

Hey everybody. It’s Monday. Time for Immediate Recovery.

(Note: To send questions for my Wednesday Mailbag, email Stewart.Mandel@fox.com)

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We’re halfway through the 2016 regular season. If I had to describe it in one word, that word would be … orderly.

Last Saturday pretty well summed up the state of things. No. 1 Alabama went on the road and beat Top 10 foe Tennessee by 39 points. No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Clemson endured overtime scares against Wisconsin and NC State, respectively, but remained unscathed. And despite being on a bye, No. 3 Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh managed to make headlines for something completely off the wall (announcing a high school’s Homecoming queen).

In other words, chalk.

Usually, one of college football’s defining traits is chaos, but so far that’s mostly been reserved for the endings of dysfunctional Notre Dame’s games. Arguably the biggest upset to date involved one Group of 5 team (Navy) defeating another (Houston). And Louisville’s Lamar Jackson sucked all the drama out of the Heisman race by Week 3.

Surely this can’t continue.

Or can it?

On Saturday, the top-ranked Crimson Tide (7-0, 4-0 SEC) welcome sixth-ranked Texas A&M (6-0, 4-0) to Tuscaloosa in what may very well be that conference’s biggest remaining game of the regular season. Obviously, any time two of the top six teams in the country square off it promises to be an eventful affair.

Except that Alabama – which ran for 438 yards against the Vols and have now scored 11 defensive/special teams touchdowns -- opened as a 17-point favorite. Against the No. 6 team in the country.

Where have you gone, sweet parity?

Proponents of an eight-team playoff must be loving this season -- because we may be watching one play out right before our eyes.

The first quarterfinal was Clemson’s 42-36 win over Louisville on Oct. 1. The second takes place Saturday in Tuscaloosa. All signs point to Michigan-Ohio State on Nov. 26 as the third.

And the fourth … well, it’s basically the second half of Washington’s schedule.

There are a few other potential party-crashers out there – we see you, undefeated West Virginia and Baylor. And it wouldn’t be college football if some of the aforementioned powers don’t suffer upsets.

But when there’s already a two-loss team (Wisconsin) hanging around the Top 10 and a three-loss team (Ole Miss) in the Top 25, it means there’s almost enough separation already that, for example, Clemson losing to 5-2 Florida State on Oct. 29 may have little impact on the field of four. The Tigers would still control their playoff fate. Ditto Ohio State if it loses this week at Penn State or Michigan if it trips up once before its trip to Columbus.

We are still two weeks away from the selection committee’s first deliberations, but a look back at the past two years shows you how differently this race is shaping up.

In 2014, eventual national champion Ohio State, 6-1, debuted at No. 16 in that year’s first playoff rankings. A year later, eventual Big 12 champ and semifinalist Oklahoma, 7-1, began the chase at No. 15.

As of today, the No. 15 and 16 teams in the coaches poll are 5-2 Florida State and 4-2 Oklahoma, both of which would likely need an Armageddon scenario to become viable playoff contenders.

Meanwhile, the initial 2014 committee rankings memorably had three SEC West teams in the top four, none of which were eventual champ Alabama. Some of those teams, most notably No. 1 Mississippi State, were wildly overrated, but it set up quite the intense home stretch for all involved.

This year’s fourth-highest ranked SEC West team is 3-3 Ole Miss.

And 2015 featured three undefeated Big 12 teams well into November, which Oklahoma beat in succession to make its meteoric rise. In 2016, the Big 12 has those two undefeated teams but no one else with fewer than two losses.

Those hoping for chaos should probably turn their attention to the Pac-12, where 6-0 Washington may hold the conference’s entire remaining playoff hopes. Utah, 6-1, is the only other league team with fewer than two losses, and the Utes are mostly just trying to survive without losing a sixth running back to injury.

Between their weak non-conference schedule (Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State) and a dearth of highly ranked conference opponents, it would only take one loss by the Huskies to give renewed hope to 5-1 Louisville, 5-0 West Virginia, Baylor and perhaps a one-loss loser of Bama-A&M and/or Ohio State-Michigan.

And if Washington loses twice, and West Virginia and Baylor lose their first games fairly soon, we’d suddenly be looking at a scenario where only three Power 5 conferences may produce a qualified champion. Which would touch off all sorts of jockeying by potential one- and even two-loss teams.

Which would be quite the opposite of orderly.

And now, a few more takeaways from Week 7 as we reset the landscape for Week 8.

Something’s gone terribly wrong at Michigan State

In August, when I listed my Top 20 coaches in the country coming into the season, Mark Dantonio checked in all the way up at No. 4 for winning 11 games five times in six years at a long-underachieving program. While it’s unrealistic to think he’d be immune to an occasional down season (I also picked the Spartans to go 8-4), the degree to which Michigan State has plummeted this year is jaw-dropping.

On Saturday, the Spartans (2-4, 0-3 Big Ten) not only lost their fourth straight game for the first time in Dantonio’s decade-long tenure but allowed 54 points – their most ever at home – to Northwestern (3-3, 2-1). The same Northwestern team that got in the end zone once against Illinois State earlier this season.

It’s one thing for Michigan State’s offense to struggle after losing three-year starter Connor Cook and two All-American linemen, but Dantonio’s long-suffocating defense is allowing 30 points per game, 85th nationally.

“We have enough good players here to put a good football team on the field and win,” said Dantonio. “… I'm not ever going to say we're not good enough. We have to play with more consistency.”

Reports of USC’s demise were premature

Remember when first-year coach Clay Helton was as good as fired following the Trojans’ 1-3 start? The noise has cranked down considerably in L.A., not just because USC (4-3, 3-2 Pac-12) has won three straight but because of its emerging star quarterback.

Redshirt freshman Sam Darnold, who took the reins in Week 4 at Utah, is currently the nation’s eighth-rated passer, throwing 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. He threw five TDs and no picks in Saturday’s 48-14 rout at Arizona.

Mind you, USC’s trajectory this season was not unexpected when looking at its schedule, where the first four and last four games figured to be brutal and the middle four lighter. But that closing stretch does not look so daunting now given the struggles of Oregon, UCLA and Notre Dame. If Helton’s team finishes 8-4, and probably even at 7-5, he should be safe until next season.

2016 Clemson = 2014 Florida State

The parallels between the now 7-0 Tigers and that FSU team that lived dangerously throughout its 13-0 regular season are uncanny. Like FSU that year, Clemson seems intent on living as dangerously as possible. Against NC State, the Tigers coughed up the ball on three straight second-half possessions – including a Deshaun Watson pick six – and made it to overtime only when Wolfpack kicker Kyle Bambard missed a 33-yard field goal at the end of regulation.

Sluggish early yet again, Watson caught fire after that pick-six, finishing 39-of-52 for 378 yards and two TDs, but on the season he ranks 37th nationally in passer rating and 52nd in yards per attempt (7.6). Anyone still including him on a Heisman Top 5 list is still crediting him for 2015.

Clemson is so talented that it’s able to beat a team like Louisville even despite five turnovers. It may well run the table in conference play. But just like FSU eventually met its match in the Rose Bowl against Oregon, these Tigers are not going to beat an Alabama or Ohio State in a playoff game playing so sloppily.

A Colorado-Washington State Pac-12 title game is very much in play

Colorado fans would have been thrilled coming into the season just to get bowl eligible. They’re surely revising their goals now.

The Buffs (5-2, 3-1 Pac-12) are tied for first in the Pac-12 South after hammering Arizona State (5-2, 2-2), 40-16. Mike MacIntyre’s team has a bona fide defense, one that helped outgain the usually potent Sun Devils 580-199. They are second only to Washington in the conference in allowing 4.6 yards per play.

“We’re one step closer to getting closer to where we want to go -- so we’ve got a long ways to go,” said MacIntyre. He then conceded, “We’ve done pretty well so far.”

Meanwhile, Mike Leach’s Cougars (4-2, 3-0) have brushed off non-conference losses to Eastern Washington and Boise State to knock off Oregon, Stanford and UCLA. How cool would a North Division winner-take-all Apple Cup be?

West Virginia plays some defense

Texas Tech may not be a good football team, but the thing it does better than most is throw the ball around. QB Pat Mahomes came into Saturday averaging 454 yards per game, and the Red Raiders were on an NCAA-record streak of nine straight home games scoring at least 50 points.

The undefeated Mountaineers held Mahomes to 305 yards, sacked him four times and held Texas Tech to 17 points. They’re holding opponents to 19.4 points per game on the season. Coordinator Tony Gibson, who first worked at WVU under Rich Rodriguez and then-coordinator Jeff Casteel, preaches the 3-3-5 scheme of RichRod’s run.

“The way football has changed now and the way the game is being played, nobody can convince me that there’s anything better,” Gibson told the Charleston Gazette-Mail.

Fielding a competent defense, much less a dominant one, immediately gives West Virginia a head’s up on most of its conference. It will be put to the test again this week against TCU QB Kenny Hill.

Just for fun …

The Big 12 presidents on Monday will meet in Dallas and possibly decide once and for all whether the conference will expand. Check around 5:30 p.m. central whether it’s white smoke or black smoke.

Most people in around the conference believe the board will decide to remain at 10 teams, possibly in conjunction with a renegotiated TV deal from ESPN and Fox. But this is the Big 12 we’re talking about. It can’t possibly be that open-and-shut.

Here’s speculating on a few more Big 12-esque possible outcomes from Monday’s proceedings.

* The Big 12 announces it is expanding – to 13 members.

* The Big 12 announces that the presidents have approved expansion – and will be taking the next six months to decide which schools.

* The Big 12 announces it’s commencing a six-month research project to check whether its consultants’ previous research is accurate.

* The Big 12 announces it has cut its previous list of (LINK) 11 finalists down to four – let’s say Houston, Cincinnati, BYU and Connecticut. On next week’s episode, the Big 12 will take those four on Hometown Dates.

* The Big 12 announces it is not expanding at this time – but will reopen the process in December if it misses the playoff.