2023 Masters predictions, expert picks by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
The week golf fans and bettors wait all year for is finally here. It's MASTERS WEEK!
Defending champion Scottie Scheffler is the current betting favorite at +700 at FOX Bet. The last player to win back-to-back championships at the Masters was Tiger Woods in 2001 and 2002.
Speaking of Woods, you know Augusta is dear to his heart. Tiger has won this event six times, including his improbable victory in 2019. His odds are currently +6600 to win it all.
Since this is the biggest tournament of the year, let's dive into the wagers I’m making for the event.
Rory McIlroy Top-10 finish (-125)
McIlroy finished in the Top 10 of every major last year and has seven Top 10s in the past nine Masters. While forecasting the weather is unpredictable, I do think you need to factor it into your handicapping. And McIlroy is someone you’ll want to back as having a player who has a long carry with the driver will be a huge plus if the ground is soft. Slower greens will also help McIlroy, who gets held back by his putter at times. He’s out late Thursday and early Friday, so we’ll see how that end of the draw goes. But I’d be shocked if McIlroy wasn’t in this again come late Sunday.
Scottie Scheffler Top-10 finish (-135)
The defending champ's worst finish this year is 12th, and there’s no reason to believe he won't benefit from softer conditions and give a stern defense of his title. He’s been in the Top 10 in five of his past seven majors and has six straight rounds under par at Augusta National. Some may not like the fact that my golf betting approach isn’t "bet a little to try and win a lot," but these non-outright win markets are where I like to do most of my work.
Tiger Woods finishes +2 (T-54th) in 1st round of Masters
Phil Mickelson to miss the cut (+105)
Mickelson has missed just three Masters cuts, but he has just one round under par in his past six rounds at Augusta National. He's also missed the cut in five of his past six PGA or Asian PGA Tour events and beat just seven players in the Orlando LIV event. Unfortunately, it feels like a short stay in Augusta this time around for one of the all-time greats.
Adrian Meronk to make the cut (-160)
Meronk is a long hitter with a very good game around the green. Both will help him this week. He’s posted some solid finishes worldwide this year — 17th at the Match Play, 14th at the Honda, along with a pair of Top 10s on the DP World Tour. He’s in the fifth group off Thursday with Kevin Kisner and Louis Oosthuizen, which should be a very comfortable round of golf for him in his first trip around Augusta National.
Everyone loves Homa this week, and maybe he will have a great tourney as he does appear to have made the leap to the next level of player with a win, a runner-up and two other Top 10s this year. But it also allows people to get a nice price fading Homa who, since an opening-round 70 in the fall Masters of 2020, has gone 75-74-74-74-73-77-78 here with a pair of missed cuts and a T-48 last year.
Maybe he’s figured out the course by now, but he’s matched up here against someone who has already figured out the course in Sungjae Im. He has a pair of top-8 finishes in three Masters and played well in the Match Play and The Players Championship. I’ll lay the small number with the favorite in this matchup.
Min Woo Lee +6500 to win, +500 Top 10, +210 Top 20
Lee is one guy I’m willing to throw a pre-tourney dart on in the outright market because if he starts well, +6500 will be long gone. The 24-year-old Aussie made a good account of himself last year in majors, finishing 14th at the Masters, 27th at the U.S. Open and 21st at The Open.
Breaking down his Masters even further, his card featured 18 bogeys and a double bogey – he had 17 par-breakers for the event – champion Scottie Scheffler had 21. He was solo second entering the final round of The Players Championship before a final round 76 dropped him to sixth. It's clear he has game, and I’m also playing him in the Top 10 and 20 markets.
Sungjae Im first-round leader +4000, +4500 to win
Im ranks sixth on the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average at 68.75 and has a nice 10:54 AM starting time when most of the eyeballs will be on 2021 Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama and 2022 Open Champion – and LIV departee – Cameron Smith. Im will just put his head down, grind, ignore the circus, and he might just go out and shoot 67, which could put him in the early mix. This was the cast last year, where he led after the first round.
BEAR BYTES
Smith has spent nine of his past 12 rounds inside the Top 10 (11 of 12 inside the Top 13) at the Masters.
Each of McIlroy’s past four first rounds at the Masters have been over par (73-76-75-73).
Brooks Koepka missed the cut in each of the past two Masters, going a combined 11-over par in those four rounds.
Just two of Jon Rahm’s last 10 rounds at Augusta have been under par. Each came on Sunday the past two years.
Since winning in 2019, Tiger's weekend rounds have been 78-78-72-76. So there may be opportunities to bet against him or play over his round score – if he makes the cut.
Bryson DeChambeau has shot 75 or worse in five of his past six rounds at Augusta. He’s opened with a 76 each of the past two years.
Only once in seven Masters has Justin Thomas opened with better than a 73 – he opened with a 66 in 2021. However, Thomas has bounced back nicely in round two, firing a round in the 60s the past five years.
Six straight and nine of 11 majors have been won by a player in their 20s. The last player not in their 20s to win a major – 50-year-old Mickelson in the 2021 PGA Championship.
Sixteen of the past 17 Masters champs were inside the Top 10 after the first round. The only exception – Tiger in 2019 (11th). The last Masters champ worse than 11th after the first round was Tiger in 2005.
Five of the past six Masters champs either led or held a share of the 54-hole lead. Each of the past three led by at least three shots entering the final round.
The past seven Masters winners were either ranked No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking, or outside the Top 10. The last player ranked within the Top 10 to win and not ranked No. 1 was Jordan Spieth in 2015.
Of the five players in the Masters era who completed the career Grand Slam, each of them needed three or fewer starts in the needed major to win and finish off the slam from the time they won their third different major. McIlroy's ninth attempt at the career Grand Slam will come at the Masters. So while McIlroy seemingly has many more shots to finish the career slam off, history says if you don’t finish it off quickly, you never will.
Looking for the key Augusta stat? Twenty of the past 24 Masters champions have ranked among the top nine in greens in regulation for the week, including each of the past six. Seventeen of the winners finished in the Top 5 for the week, with seven leading the way. When in doubt, go with a guy who is solid on approach.
From 2008-18, just two players with shorter than +2000 odds won the Masters. We saw long shots galore with names such as Trevor Immelman (+15000), Ángel Cabrera (+12500), Charl Schwartzel (+10000) and Danny Willett (+5000) take home the green jacket. However, that’s changed in the past four years, as a Top 3 betting choice won three times, with Matsuyama at +4000 winning in 2021. There are currently just five players shorter than +2000 - the fewest since 2014. The names are what one would expect – McIlroy, Scheffler, Rahm, Cantlay and Spieth. Recent history suggests one of them has an excellent chance of being 2023 Masters Champion.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He’s a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
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