2024 U.S. Open predictions, best bets by Chris 'The Bear' Fallica
"Bear Bets" are real wagers that Chris "The Bear" Fallica is actually making.
The third major of the season is here, as the top golfers in the world will tee up for the 124th U.S. Open, Thursday through Sunday, on Course No. 2 at Pinehurst Resort in Pinehurst, North Carolina.
Can Scottie Scheffler continue his historic run this season with five wins in his last eight starts?
Or will Xander Schauffele build off his first career major at the 2024 PGA Championship?
How about Rory McIlroy's chances to reach the winner's circle at a major for the first time since 2014?
If you want to throw a few bucks on the action, I have you covered with my best bets.
Let's dive into the wagers I’m making this week.
Scottie Scheffler to win +300
There really isn’t anything I need to say here. Usually I avoid playing for such a short price in a major, but there’s also the chance we’re looking up at the oddsboard on Thursday afternoon, and suddenly he’s +180. So you’ll be glad you’re holding 3-1 at that point.
Ludvig Aberg to win +2200, Top 10 +210
It’s Aberg’s first U.S. Open, but it’s clear he’s got the game to challenge Scheffler, as he finished second to him at Augusta and, even after going in the water on the second nine, wouldn’t go away. He was hampered by an injury at the PGA but bounced back with a top-five finish last week at the Memorial. He’ll be a popular alternative to Scheffler this week, and for good reason.
Min Woo Lee Top 20 +230, Top 30 +130
Lee was fifth last year at LACC and finished just outside the top 20 in the first two majors of the year this year. He’s one of the best drivers out there and avoiding the Open rough will be big this week. He’s not the best putter, but as we’ve seen in the past, putting is the most random of the metrics, so as long as he makes a few putts, we’ll have a nice shot at cashing.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 30 +170
A poor first round prevented him making the cut at Valhalla, but he bounced back last week with a T-4 finish. He’s also posted a top-15 finish at The Players and a top-20 finish at Pebble, so he can play with the best of them. The 30-year-old South African is excellent around and on the greens, so he could gain some strokes on the field this week, as reports are these greens are going to be extremely tough. His best major finish is 30th, so if he can equal that this week, we’ll be in a good place.
Rory McIlroy Top 10 +125
Five straight top-10 finishes in the U.S. Open to go along with three more top-10s and a win earlier in his career. He may not win, but he knows how to grind at an event which can be as much mental as it is physical.
Tom Kim Top 30 +115
Kim has played 10 career majors and posted a top-30 in six, including, both majors this year and three of the four last year. So, while he hasn’t emerged with a bunch of wins, as many of us thought he might have given his international performance, remember he’s still just 21. He's been one of the more consistent cut makers in major championship golf over the last two years.
Sepp Straka Top 10 +550, Top 30 +125
Missed the cut at the PGA and missed the cut in the sandwich event (Valspar) between the PLAYERS and Masters. In those other seven events, though, he finished with three top-fives, and nothing worse than 16th. Straka was runner-up to Brian Harman at the Open last year.
Collin Morikawa Top 10 +150
The 2021 Open champion has finished in the top four in three straight events and was third at the Masters. It’s clear he’s out of the career lull he went through in parts of 2022 and 2023 and is back to being a top five/10/win threat every week. As is always the case, can he make enough putts to go along with his pristine iron play? Only Scheffler — and maybe Schauffele — are in better form right now, so hop aboard the Morikawa money train.
TO MISS CUT
Patrick Cantlay +160, Adrian Meronk +110, Max Homa +175, Jon Rahm +215*
Rahm may not even play as he has a toe injury, and he’s off the board in some spots, but you’d have to think he goes and will likely struggle or WD if the pain is too much.
Meronk has played six majors in the U.S. and missed the cut five times, including both U.S. Opens.
Homa has missed the cut in four of his five U.S. Opens and hasn’t been in his best form this year.
Cantlay hasn’t missed a cut in a major since 2022, but he was a mess at the Memorial last week and was a non-factor at the PGA.
FIXED PARLAYS AT DRAFTKINGS
Xander Schauffele Top 5, Sahith Theegala Top 10 and Min Woo Lee Top 20 +6500
Ludvig Aberg Top 5, Sahith Theegala Top 10 and Sungjae Im Top 20 +11000
I’ve never played any of these sportsbook pre-arranged parlays because they are usually losing propositions.
But I do like to go through to get ideas for some things I could either play, or play against separately.
I am going to throw some pizza money on these two, as none feel too far-fetched, given Theegala’s play in big events this year.
Chris "The Bear" Fallica has covered sports for nearly three decades. While college football has been his focus, he also enjoys the NFL, Soccer, Golf, Tennis, MLB, NHL and Horse Racing, with an "occasional" wager on such events. Chris recently won the inaugural Circa Football Invitational and finished in the Top 10 of the Golden Nugget Football Contest. He's a multiple-time qualifier for the NHC Handicapping Championship. Remember, "The less you bet, the more you lose when you win!" Follow him on Twitter @chrisfallica.
* Editors note: John Rahm has withdrawn from the tournament
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