There are seven players who could reasonably win the FedEx Cup. Here’s how they stack up.
Okay, technically there are 30 players who can win the FedEx Cup this week at East Lake in Atlanta to take home an extra $10 million, but the chances of Charl Schwartzel, who comes into the Tour Championship in 30th place, winning are slim to none.
Allow me to break down what would need to happen for the former Masters champ to take home the title. First, he would have to win this week. Sure, that’s certainly not out of the realm of possibility. But then, he would need Dustin Johnson to finish 29th or worse … out of 30 players.
If that weren’t enough, he would then need Patrick Reed to finish in a three-way tie for sixth or worse, Adam Scott to finish in a tie for fourth or worse, Jason Day to finish in a tie for third or worse, Paul Casey to finish in a three-way tie for second or worse and Rory McIlroy to finish tied for second or worse. And there’s no “or” with all of those options. Schwartzel needs every single one of those things to happen and while anything can happen in golf, I’m going to go out on a limb here and bet that things don’t go down that way.
Now, I could sit here and run you through every single scenario like that (and trust me, there are scenarios like that all the way up the ladder from Schwartzel to Bubba Watson to Phil Mickelson and everyone else in between), but it’s quite rare that someone from outside the top seven or eight in points going into East Lake ends up taking home the FedEx Cup title.
That’s not to say that it’s impossible, as Jim Furyk had everything go his way from the 11th position in 2010 to win, but it would be extremely surprising if one of these top seven didn’t walk away with the trophy on Sunday evening.
Sep 11, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Jordan Spieth tees off on the fifth hole during the final round at the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
7. Jordan Spieth
Jordan Spieth knows how to win at East Lake. He proved that only a year ago as he dominated the field and cruised to a four-shot victory over Danny Lee, Justin Rose and Henrik Stenson to claim his fifth victory of the season and win over $11 million … on just that day alone.
He’ll have a little more work to do this time around as he comes into the Tour Championship in seventh place in the FedEx Cup standings, sitting 1,040 points back of the top spot after the points were reset following the BMW Championship.
Following two wins in the regular season, the fourth-ranked player in the world has shot a combined 23-under par in the first three FedEx Cup playoff events, finishing in a tie for 10th at The Barclays, a T-21 finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship and ninth at the BMW. He hasn’t made as many key putts as he did a season ago but if he gets it rolling, the 2015 FedEx Cup champion could be a real threat.
For Spieth to defend his FedEx Cup championship, he’ll need to once again win the Tour Championship and also have Dustin Johnson finish in a three-way tie for second or worse and Patrick Reed tie for second or worse. That’s easily doable for the former number one player in the world.
Sep 10, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Rory McIlroy tees off on the fifth hole during the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
6. Rory McIlroy
Speaking of a former number one player in the world, Rory McIlroy comes into East Lake one spot ahead of Jordan Spieth in the FedEx Cup standings (and also one spot ahead of him in the Official World Golf Rankings) and has a great chance to claim his second win of these FedEx Cup Playoffs, his first coming just a few weeks ago at the Deutsche Bank Championship just outside of Boston.
McIlroy didn’t have his most consistent year on the PGA Tour, with his only win being that win a few weeks ago, and he didn’t follow up his win at the Deutsche Bank with a particularly flashy showing at the BMW, finishing in a tie for 42nd a full 20 shots back of winner Dustin Johnson at 3-under par.
But this is Rory McIlroy. When he gets hot, he gets really hot. It’s just that when he goes cold, he goes really cold, as evidenced by some missed cuts in major tournaments this year. However, it’s always hard to rule out a four-time major champion entering the prime of his career. It also helps that he doesn’t even have to win at East Lake to win the FedEx Cup. Of course, if he does win and Dustin Johnson finishes tied for second or worse, Rory automatically takes the title but he can still finish in second and mathematically have a chance.
And sometimes a chance is all that Rory McIlroy needs.
Sep 11, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Paul Casey tees off on the 17th hole during the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
5. Paul Casey
Here’s where things start getting a little easier. For the top five, win and the FedEx Cup trophy is yours. It’s that simple. And for Paul Casey, he can finish in a two-way tie for second at the Tour Championship and still pick up that $10 million.
While Casey hasn’t had a ton of success on the PGA Tour, with only one win to his credit, he’s won 13 times on the European Tour and has long been considered one of the more consistent players in the game. He racked up six top 10s on tour this season and 11 top-25 finishes in 21 events. Yep, I’d say that’s fairly consistent. But he’s never really had that breakthrough performance. And for a guy who turns 40 next year, a win at the Tour Championship would be the biggest win of his life. And he just so happens to be playing the best golf of the year at the exact right time.
After a T-31 finish at The Barclays, Casey put himself in this position to win the FedEx Cup with a second-place finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship and shot 20-under at the BMW to once again claim a solo second. Paul Casey has never been flashy, but it could finally be his time to shine.
Sep 9, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Jason Day watches his tee shot during the second round Friday at the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
4. Jason Day
While Dustin Johnson may be the hottest golfer in the world right now, Jason Day is still the number one player in the world and has been for the last six months. Sitting in the fourth position in the FedEx Cup standings, Jason Day claims the title with a win at the Tour Championship, has a reasonable shot to win by finishing in second and can still claim the trophy by finishing as low as third. But Jason Day is going to East Lake to win. You don’t hang with and get advice from a guy like Tiger Woods if you’re okay with finishing second. That’s just not how this guy works.
But much like his pal, Jason Day is fighting through some back pain right now and it actually forced him to withdraw from the BMW Championship during the final round last Sunday after completing his first eight holes. His trainers say that he’s getting treatment and is expected to play this weekend.
The world number one started in the second position of the FedEx Cup standings heading into Crooked Stick, a position he earned with three regular season wins, 10 top 10s and 16 top 25 finishes in 18 events. In the last three tournaments that Day completed, he finished in second at the PGA Championship, tied for fourth at The Barclays and tied for 15th at the Deutsche Bank, so he’s been playing well. Only time will tell if his back can hold up for the grind of 72 big holes at East Lake.
Sep 11, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Adam Scott tees off on the seventh hole during the final round at the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
3. Adam Scott
With arguably the prettiest swing in golf, Aussie Adam Scott comes into East Lake playing perhaps the most consistent golf of anyone on this list. Sure, he hasn’t won any of the first three FedEx Cup events, but he finished tied for fourth at The Barclays, took solo fourth at the Deutsche Bank and once again tied for fourth at the BMW. Throw that on top of two wins, two second-place finishes and eight top tens and it’s easy to see how he put himself in this position.
Obviously, he can win the FedEx Cup with a win at the Tour Championship but like Jason Day, he could also finish in second and still have a very realistic chance of taking home the top prize. He could actually finish as low as fourth and still have a mathematical chance of winning the cup.
Also a former world number one, the 2013 Masters champion has 29 professional wins to his credit, including a win ten years ago at East Lake, one year before the FedEx Cup era began. He knows how to win at this golf course and has proven he can make the necessary adjustments, namely his putting stroke, to stay at a high level. Don’t be surprised to see Adam Scott holding two trophies on Sunday evening.
Sep 9, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Patrick Reed watches his tee shot during the second round Friday at the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
2. Patrick Reed
Before these FedEx Cup Playoffs began, 26-year-old Patrick Reed hadn’t won on the PGA Tour all season. He had two second-place finishes, one at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions and the other at the Valero Texas Open, but hadn’t finished in the top 10 of any tournament since tying for eighth at the Memorial back in May. But he started these playoffs right, grinding out a tough one-shot victory over Sean O’Hair and Emiliano Grillo at The Barclays.
He followed up his win at Bethpage Black with a top five finish at the Deutsche Bank and played very consistently at the BMW to finish tied for 13th. Certainly gearing up for the upcoming Ryder Cup, Reed is playing some very good golf these days and a win at East Lake to take home the FedEx Cup title would easily be the biggest win of his young career. Unfortunately, Reed hasn’t fared overly well in his first two trips to the Tour Championship, finishing in the bottom half of the field in each of his attempts.
Reed has a big advantage over most of the field in that he can reasonably win with a top three finish and can finish as low as a two-way tie for sixth and still mathematically walk away with the $10 million top prize.
Sep 11, 2016; Carmel, IN, USA; Dustin Johnson hits his tee shot on the 15th tee during the BMW Championship at Crooked Stick GC. Mandatory Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports
1. Dustin Johnson
And finally, we come to the front-runner for PGA Tour Player of the Year, world number two and U.S. Open champion, Dustin Johnson. Already a three-time winner this year, including a big win at the BMW last weekend, Johnson comes into East Lake looking to add to what has already been the most successful season of his accomplished career.
Johnson has finished in the top 10 in two-thirds of the PGA Tour events he’s played in this season. Oddly enough, one of those did not come in the first event of these FedEx Cup Playoffs as DJ finished in a tie for 18th at The Barclays. However, he made a few adjustments as he hit the Deutsche Bank Championship and finished in a tie for eighth before his blistering performance at the BMW Championship.
Johnson opened with a 67 and absolutely torched Crooked Stick in the second round, firing a course-record 63 with five birdies, two eagles and no bogeys. He closed out with rounds of 68 and 67 on the weekend to shoot 23-under for the tournament, breaking all sorts of records in the process.
The road to the FedEx Cup and the $10 million payday is easier for Johnson than anyone else in the field. As it is with all of the top five, if he wins at East Lake he wins the FedEx Cup. If he finishes in the top five, he still has a good shot at winning. Johnson could finish as low as 29th and still have a mathematical chance of winning the FedEx Cup. And that’s exactly what Charl Schwartzel is hoping for, am I right?
The Tour Championship gets underway this Thursday at 11:40 a.m. ET.
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