Who’s coming in hot to the European Tour Omega Dubai Desert Classic?
I always look forward to the European Tour Dubai Desert Classic. This year, with the field headlined by Danny Willett and Henrik Stenson, there’s an explicit promise of some extraordinary golf.
But Willett and Stenson aren’t the only high-power players teeing it up at the Major of the Middle East. Our power rankings include young Matt Fitzpatrick as well as Rafa Cabrera Bello, who delivered an incredibly heroic performance at the WGC Match Play Championship last year.
Seasoned competitors like Sergio Garcia and Lee Westwood and hopeful challengers like Martin Kaymer and Tiger Woods potentially could add some extra spice to play on the Emirates Golf Club Majlis course.
Carved through the desert, the Majlis track will play 7300+ yards from the tips. Challenges are everywhere. Narrow fairways make sand shots practically inevitable. Slick greens make putting skill essential. Water hazards raise the stakes.
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Keep an eye on play at the par-3 7th hole where tee shots much carry the length of a lake, and the par-5 finishing hole, where another lake demands a long-carry approach to a devilish green. Both the 7th and 18th holes have proved the downfall of some of the best golfers in the world!
With daytime temperatures in the 70s and partial clouds you might think the conditions just about golf-perfect, but the wind is going to blow Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. That could complicate the situation.
Here’s how I see the Dubai Desert Classic field lining up.
Rafa Cabrera Bello. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Rafa Cabrera Bello
OWGR - 25 Race to Dubai - 4
With a runner-up at the Hong Kong Open, a T19 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Champions and a T6 at the Qatar Masters, Cabrera Bello is coming in to Dubai primed to dominate the field. The Spaniard knows how to manage the Emirates track. He was the 2012 Dubai Desert Classic champion so he’s familiar with the challenges of those narrow fairways and slick greens. Although his accuracy off the tee is a bit low – and that could be a function of early season rust – his putting stats are more than competitive. I’m looking for the rest of the field to be chasing him by Sunday.Next: Henrik Stenson
Henrik Stenson. Mandatory Credit: Eric Sucar-USA TODAY Sports
Henrik Stenson
OWRG - 4 Race to Dubai - 42
The Swede is like a Timex – he just keeps on ticking. Coming off a 2016 season that included a stunning victory at The Open Championship, European Tour Player of the Year Honors, and a runner-up finish in the 2016 Olympic men’s competition, Stenson’s competitive career doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Stenson plays well in the Middle East. He’s a past champion at the Dubai Desert Classic (2007), and he finished inside the top-10 at the DP World Championship last November as well as the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship in January. By the numbers, he’s a stronger player than Cabrera Bello but the numbers don’t always tell the whole story.Next: Danny Willett
Danny Willett. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Danny Willett
OWGR - 13 Race to Dubai - 34
Despite a top-10 finish at the Hong Kong Open in November, defending champion Danny Willett hasn’t shown the form this season that he did in 2016. Yet the season is early and Willett has been able to bring his game into focus when the opportunity demanded. His back nine triumph at Augusta National last year in very challenging conditions is one example. Willett seems to play best when competition is fierce and if he can tighten up his long game and sharpen his flat stick I can see him easily emerging as a contender this year at the Dubai Desert Classic. A safe bet is a top-10 finish but Willett has more in his bag than we’ve seen recently.Next: Bernd Wiesberger
Bernd Wiesberger. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Bernd Wiesberger
OWGR - 37 Race to Dubai - 13
Wiesberger’s T4 finish last year in Dubai and four top-5 finishes in his last six starts tells me he’s coming in to this year’s Championship with an understanding of the Emirates track and a well-tuned game in his bag. By the numbers, he has consistency off the tee, which he’ll need, and a competitive short game. He also has enough experience with the slick greens to be forewarned and prepared. I’m looking for him to contend.Next: Matt Fitzpatrick
Matt Fitzpatrick. (Photo by Andrew Redington/Getty Images)
Matt Fitzpatrick
OWGR - 31
Matt Fitzpatrick sealed his rising star reputation with his gut-wrenching, final putt victory last November at the DP World Tour Championship, his second victory of the 2016 season. Although the young Englishman is bringing less experience and local knowledge to the tee at the Dubai Desert Classic, he’s proved himself to be a quick study. If he can get a handle on the situation with the greens, I’m looking for the Ryder Cup standout to get himself in contention this week on the Emirates track.Next: Tommy Fleetwood
Tommy Fleetwood. (Photo by Stuart Franklin/Getty Images)
Tommy Fleetwood
OWGR - 56 Race to Dubai - 1
Tommy Fleetwood may have stubbed his toe last week at the Qatar Masters but his Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship victory has kept him on my top-10 rankings. Fleetwood’s game seems to be coming into focus. He’s become increasingly consistent over the past two seasons, with a steadily declining overall stroke average and a steadily increasing accuracy off the tee and GIR. Only his putting average has been stagnant, but it’s low enough to keep him competitive. The promising Englishman may not be good for the win, but I’m fairly confident that he’s good for a top-10 finish this week, and that would keep him at or near the top of the Race to Dubai.Next: Lee Westwood
Lee Westwood. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports
Lee Westwood
OWGR - 43 Race to Dubai - 42
Although Westwood’s most recent win came in 2014 at the Maybank Malaysian Open, he’s been rather steadily getting into contention – a top-5 finish at the 2015 British Masters, a T13 at the DB World Tour Championship, and a T8 at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship. Never forget that Westwood was the man who toppled Tiger Woods off the top of the OWGR and he recorded five top-10s in 2016. The man has game and he’s not one ever to be discounted. Look for him to be in contention this week at the Dubai Desert Classic.Next: Jeunghun Wang
Jeunghun Wang (R). Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Jeunghun Wang
OWGR - 39 Race to Dubai - 2
With the exception of Byeong Hun An, the Korean men have been a bit slower than the Korean women in making their mark in pro golf, but Wang may remedy that. This guy is hot. He’s coming to the Dubai Desert Classic fresh from a victory at the Qatar Masters – his 3rd European Tour win – and an 11th place finish at Abu Dhabi. Wang followed An by collecting the 2016 Sir Henry Cotton Rookie of the Year. He’s an impressive competitor. Look for him to shine on the putting surface. What Wang lacks in experience with the Emirates track may slow him down a bit, particularly if the wind is blowing, but if he lives up to his promise it won’t take him long to get command of the golf course.Next: Sergio Garcia
Sergio Garcia. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Sergio Garcia
OWGR - 15
The Dubai Desert Classic is Sergio’s 2017 European Tour debut but the man with 11 European Tour wins and 9 PGA TOUR wins will almost always make it onto my top-10 power rankings list. I’d have him ranked in the top 5 if he weren’t a bit rusty. He’s accurate off the tee, he’s good getting out of the sand, and for the most part he manages to avoid those vile 3-putts. That said, the only thing that could hold him back this week is a lack of power or some needed practice. But I’m expecting El Niño to overcome those inconsequential disadvantages and show us his championship-level game.Next: Victor Dubuisson
Victor Dubuisson. Mandatory Credit: Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports
Victor Dubuisson
OWGR - 85
For US and Canadian fans Golf Channel will provide coverage of all four rounds of the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Check your local listings for the airing schedule.
Who are you liking for the Dubai Desert Classic? Do you think Tiger will play the weekend? Let me know your thoughts in the comment section. And don’t overlook Sam Belden’s power rankings for the Waste Management Phoenix Open.
