PGA odds: An oddsmaker's take on the 2022 Masters and Tiger Woods
By Sam Panayotovich
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The best-case scenario for a Las Vegas golf oddsmaker is to have several players in great form as a major tournament draws near.
That’s exactly what we have heading into the 2022 Masters at Augusta National Golf Club, with ten of the world’s best players all generating decent buzz at the betting windows.
Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Jordan Spieth, Dustin Johnson, Viktor Hovland, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa are all 20/1 or less at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas.
It’s a perfect storm for a sportsbook.
With no real clear-cut favorite, it creates a ton of head-to-head matchup markets, and it’s much easier to balance the book’s bottom line when you’re not giving away good golfers at great prices.
"There’s a whole slew of golfers up there at 16, 18 and 20/1 that have been playing well for a few months," SuperBook vice president of risk management Jeff Sherman told FOX Sports. "The money is getting spread out everywhere. And now you add Tiger Woods back into the mix and that adds even more money in the pot."
Woods is a five-time Masters champion, and bettors literally come out of the woodwork to fire bets on him when he’s in the field at Augusta National.
"We were at 100/1 last week," Sherman said. "Last Tuesday, Tiger showed up for the practice round at Augusta, and we took some money, so I went to 80, and we got more money there. As the momentum built, we went to 60 with anticipation that he was actually going to play. The money keeps coming in.
"Somebody bet $1,000 on Tiger at 60/1 on Tuesday afternoon."
The biggest Tiger ticket Sherman’s team wrote was a $1,046 bet at 100/1 this past January to win over $104,000. It’s extremely unlikely to win, but it’s still a hell of a payout should Woods pull off the unthinkable.
"You have a threshold on liability that you’re comfortable with," Sherman explained. "You want to write bets on it, so you keep Tiger in perspective. He’s done amazing things in his career – including a Masters win in 2019 – but he hasn’t played in 14 months, and he’s going up against guys that have played competitively week in and week out.
"For me, Tiger just playing at Augusta is a win. Asking him to come away with the trophy is a tough ask. So I have no problem with us taking bets on him."
Multiple sportsbooks are offering exotic markets on Tiger, such as first-round score, finishes in the Top 5, Top 10 and Top 20, overall finishing position, and a market that’s really been on the move: Tiger to make or miss the cut.
The SuperBook is dealing Tiger to make at +110 and miss at -130.
"I opened Tiger +120 to make the cut and -140 to miss," Sherman said. "I moved it down to +110 Tuesday morning after his announcement. We took some sharp play down to even money (+100), then another sharp player hit us on the other side at -120 to miss."
Whether Tiger is running hot, cold or on empty, he brings out the betting interest. He basically serves as a Masters magnet, and bettors look to bet either on him or against him every time he qualifies for a big tournament.
"He’s the best golfer for handle that I’ve ever seen," Sherman declared.
Speaking of the best golfers, Scheffler is currently the No. 1 player in the world after posting three wins on the PGA Tour in the last two months. Scheffler was 60/1 when Sherman opened The Masters outright market almost immediately after Hideki Matsuyama won in April 2021.
You’re lucky to find a price higher than 16/1 on Scheffler anywhere.
"He’s not in the top-five ticket counts for money," Sherman reported. "But the smaller tickets are consistent. He’s commanding a lot of interest at The Masters, and he’s a small, positive position for us.
"What an ascension from a couple of years ago to today. He’s surpassed so many good golfers in a very short period. His play on the course warrants the rise, though. And you look at the two times he’s played August, they were both Top 20 finishes. There are a lot of positives to like even at his short price."
Spaniard Jon Rahm continues to get priced as the best golfer at most sportsbooks heading into The Masters. You routinely see Rahm at 8, 10 or 12/1 at any big-time tournament even though he’s only won one major championship [2021 U.S. Open].
You know what they say, money doesn’t lie.
"I was testing the waters to see what I could get on Rahm and when I went to 12/1, I got some sharp play on him in Arizona," Sherman reported. "It’s holding steady around 11/1 right now with a lot of smaller tickets in Nevada. There’s no need to go any higher.
"The most indicative thing you can point to is the matchup market. You look at the matchups, and Rahm is favored against every other golfer. From a sharp money standpoint – sharps mostly get involved in the matchup market – he’s the No. 1 rated golfer in the world.
"Rahm is -115 over Justin Thomas, who’s No. 2 right now. And each of those guys are decent favorites because we got sharp play on each of them against Scheffler and Cameron Smith. So you can line things up by looking at the matchups to tell who the highest rated golfers truly are."
I couldn’t let Sherman go without asking about the "volcano guys." Which golfers make the SuperBook nervous in terms of built-up liability?
"Aside from Tiger?" Sherman cracked. "We took a $5,000 wager on Louis Oosthuizen at 50/1 to win $250,000. Our largest liability is on Aaron Jarvis. He’s a UNLV freshman who won the Latin American amateur championship, and somebody bet $245 on him at 5000/1 to win $1.225 million."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
Download the FOX Super 6 app for your chance to win thousands of dollars on the biggest sporting events each and every week! Just make your picks and you could win the grand prize. Download and play today!
