Will Scottie Scheffler win all four majors? 'He’s the closest comparison to Tiger'
Scottie Scheffler has been running hot for the past two years or so. But this season, he’s taken the boil to another level. In nine events, he’s got three wins among his eight top-10 finishes.
The Masters victory is the latest on that list, as Scheffler’s spree continues shaking up the world of golf odds.
"He’s the closest comparison to Tiger Woods," SuperBook golf oddsmaker Jeff Sherman said. "Between good Tiger and now, we have compared others in this manner. But Scottie is the closest we have seen."
So, in the wake of Scheffler’s convincing win last week — his second green jacket in three years — Sherman decided to post an interesting golf prop bet: Will Scheffler win all four majors this season?
Sherman and FOX Sports wagering expert Chris "The Bear" Fallica dive into the Scheffler Slam.
Bet a Little, Win a Lot
On Sunday night, just a couple hours after Scheffler beat the Masters field by four shots, Sherman put up the Scheffler 2024 Grand Slam prop.
Odds opened at +8000 (80/1) and have yet to move. The simple math of a bet on this market: If you put a $100 wager on Scheffler, and he goes on to win the 2024 PGA Championship, U.S. Open and The Open Championship — aka the British Open — you’d profit $8,000, for an $8,100 total payout.
"I like that it’s being offered. Clearly, there is an appetite for props like this, as a ‘bet a little, win a lot’ type of wager," Fallica said. "Anything to get people interested in golf and interested in wagering on golf is good for the growth of the industry."
But it takes a special player to generate that interest. Scheffler is that player.
Last month, he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship in back-to-back weeks. He took a week off, then tied for second in the Texas Children’s Houston Open.
Then Scheffler won the Masters again. Looking back over the past two seasons, he tied for second in the 2023 PGA Championship and 2022 U.S. Open.
"A few years back, we would offer an exact number of major wins prop when Tiger was running well. It saw interest then, but recently, the interest dipped," Sherman said. "We revisited it with Scottie coming off winning the first leg of the four.
"The Players Championship win — in what is often considered the fifth major — also plays into the perception of his chances to pull off the feat."
Will Scottie Scheffler ultimately be a top golfer after his second Masters win?
Doing the Odds Math
So how did Sherman arrive at Scheffler +8000 to win all four majors?
"It’s not difficult to price it. It’s just a three-team rollover parlay, using the prices we would expect him to go off at if he wins each subsequent major," Sherman said. "He is currently +400 [to win] the PGA Championship. If he wins that, his +450 odds for the U.S. Open would turn into +350.
"And if he wins the U.S. Open, his +500 for the Open Championship turns into +300."
The challenge for bettors is whether Scheffler, by winning, can force Sherman to keep adjusting those odds. The PGA Championship is May 16-19 at Valhalla, the U.S. Open is June 13-16 at Pinehurst, and The Open Championship is July 18-21 at Royal Troon.
"It’s going to be hard to do, just because of the sheer number of competitors Scottie will have to deal with," Fallica said. "But if you look at the next two major venues — Valhalla and Pinehurst — both courses fit the strength of Scheffler’s game: Irons.
"Even if he can just win at Valhalla next month, it would generate a ton of buzz for the sport."
Should Scheffler somehow also prevail at Pinehurst, then comes the biggest wild card.
"Royal Troon would obviously be impossible to predict because so much of the handicapping at The Open Championship is at the mercy of the weather, and if you’re on the good side of the draw or the bad side of the draw," Fallica said.
To Bet or Not To Bet
Is the Scheffler Slam a bet worth making? Well, yes, but with the caveat that you keep your expectations — and, accordingly, your wager size — reasonable. As Fallica noted above, bet a little to win a lot.
"For a sprinkle, sure. It’s not a bet I’d expect to win," he said. "But it would be one of those things I’d find in my account on Sunday at the PGA and be like, ‘Oh, that’s nice.’"
He also noted that the competing LIV Golf tour could positively impact Scheffler’s chances of delivering a historic year.
"One thing to keep in mind with some of these majors is: Do the LIV golfers have exemptions into the majors? Obviously, Jon Rahm has one into the U.S. Open, and Cam Smith into The Open Championship," Fallica said. "But with rankings points disappearing, it could take some big names out of a Slam [tournament]. So just check to see if some of these bigger names who defect for LIV may be out, which would certainly help Scheffler’s case."
Fallica also recommended an alternate way to play that could be appealing if you were already on the Scheffler Train for the Masters.
"If you really want to play it with an ability to potentially lock in a profit, then take some of your Masters winnings and place it on him to win the PGA, and continue to roll over a percentage of your winnings. That would be the smartest way to do it," Fallica said.
Scheffler and wife Meredith are soon expecting their first child. Neither Fallica nor Sherman thinks that will impact Scheffler’s performance.
"The impact will be on his schedule of play, not his play during tournaments," Sherman said.
Added Fallica, "I don't think that has any impact on anything."
And early action on the Scheffler Slam prop shows bettors aren’t too concerned.
"We’ve seen some initial support at the 80/1, the largest being a $150 ticket," Sherman said of a bet that could profit $12,000. "I definitely think Scheffler can make it interesting, having won the Masters by four without having his best stuff."
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
