Major League Baseball

2022 World Series odds: Jose Altuve among best MVP bets, plus a long shot

Updated Oct. 28, 2022 1:24 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class is back in session!

While you are preparing for your final exam in the form of the World Series, I have an extra credit assignment for you: betting on the World Series Most Valuable Player.

The good news is the favorite has +550 odds on FOX Bet, so we can pick more than one and still have a chance to make a profit. The bad news is just how unpredictable this award can be. But that is why I am here to guide you.

Here are a few assumptions I am making: I have the Houston Astros as this year’s World Champions, so typically, the MVP comes from the winning team.

I also have the Astros making quick work of the Phillies in this Fall Classic (leaning five games). For a pitcher to win this honor, they need to have at least two outstanding starts. If the World Series is short, Justin Verlander will be the only real candidate; and while I am expecting solid outings, too many Houston sluggers can come up with more memorable moments.

Lastly, power hitters are likelier to make these memorable moments than someone who hits for average. Fans and voters get enamored in the big moments, especially the big home runs, and understandably so.

Regardless of these assumptions, it’s important to think about multiple paths. For instance, can a slugger known for cranking home runs hit several clutch singles? Or could another pitcher make a name for himself in the confines of a short series, like closer Ryan Pressly having several save opportunities in high-leverage situations?

What does that all mean in terms of best bets? Using Statcast data, here are three players I like to win World Series MVP — odds via FOX Bet.

Yordan Alvarez (+550 on FOX Bet)

If you watch baseball or are a casual fan, you probably know the AL MVP will go to Aaron Judge or Shohei Ohtani. Now we know those two big sluggers will finish first and second in the American League MVP voting, but who should be third? Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez has as compelling a case as anyone.

Alvarez finished with the second-highest expected weighted on-base average in MLB (.462), which uses factors like exit velocity and launch angle to give probabilities that contact will go for singles and home runs. Alvarez can hit for average and power, featuring both a .320 batting average on balls in play and the second-most home runs in the American League with 37. In other seasons, he would have been the MVP, but the honor he deserves could be a postseason one this year.

Philadelphia Phillies' Bryce Harper talks with Ben Verlander after the win

Ben Verlander interviews Bryce Harper after the Philadelphia Phillies' punch their ticket to the World Series.

Jose Altuve (+900 on FOX Bet)

This bet has incredible value. When will one of the great overall players over the last several years have the fifth-shortest odds of winning anything like this honor? I know he has not had his typical postseason performance: a .143 BABIP, no home runs and 11 strikeouts. But Altuve is still projected to lead off, so he’ll have more opportunities for the aforementioned memorable moments. And Dusty Baker must still see something in him to believe he can play well. Altuve will also have home-field advantage at a hitter-friendly ballpark in Houston, and we have seen him play clutch baseball in October. At 9-1 odds, he is definitely worth a sprinkle.

Trey Mancini (+6600 on FOX Bet)

What’s the fun of sports betting if we can’t believe in a long-shot wager with value?

Trey Mancini has the narrative. It’s hard not to root for someone who battled colon cancer and plays the game the right way. The Astros then traded for him to be that last hitter who could put them over the top. So far, it has not been a blockbuster: a .258 on-base percentage (bottom half of the team), eight home runs and 22 RBI. He also has been benched for some postseason games. But, here is the good part. Someone who is a candidate for positive regression to the mean has a higher expected batting average than actual batting average, and no one on either ballclub has a higher difference than Mancini (-.238). The potential for fireworks is there for someone who had some of the better offensive numbers in baseball just a few seasons ago.

World Series MVP Odds at FOX Bet:

Yordan Alvarez, Astros: +550 (bet $10 to win $65 total)
Bryce Harper, Phillies: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Framber Valdez, Astros: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Kyle Tucker, Astros: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Justin Verlander, Astros: +850 (bet $10 to win $95 total)
Alex Bregman, Astros: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Jose Altuve, Astros: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies: +900 (bet $10 to win $100 total)
Aaron Nola, Phillies: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Jeremy Peña, Astros: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Zack Wheeler, Phillies: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Rhys Hoskins, Phillies: +1100 (bet $10 to win $120 total)
Yuli Gurriel, Astros: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)
Cristian Javier, Astros: +1600 (bet $10 to win $170 total)

* As of 10/27/2020

So there you have it, folks. Be sure to return to this space for my game-by-game best bets and some Super 6 fun.

In the meantime, remember to think creatively with this assignment: sometimes, the MVP requires an unusual path.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.