Major League Baseball

2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Phillies-Astros Game 1

Updated Oct. 28, 2022 3:33 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, the time has come for your final exam: the World Series. Nothing gets better than this.

Hopefully, you've studied hard this season, learned new tools, and made a few extra bucks in the process. Remember to keep your eyes on your own papers for this last stretch because we’re going to go over Game 1, the overall series and some Super 6 fun.

So let's dive in, with odds, of course, courtesy of FOX Bet!

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Philadelphia Phillies (Nola) at Houston Astros (Verlander) (8:00 p.m. ET Friday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

It’s the ball club almost no one expected to advance this far versus the group that’s made the Fall Classic four times in the last six seasons. But before you rush to place bets on the Astros to win the World Series (-200 on FOX Bet), let’s analyze why Philadelphia is here, starting with the pitching matchup.

Aaron Nola has always been a strikeout artist. From 2015 to last season, among qualifiers, Nola ranked 20th in MLB in strikeouts per nine innings (10.07). This season was actually an improvement, coming in ninth overall among starters (10.32). However, when hitters made contact, the results were not always to his liking. Hitters were able to barrel his pitches at a 7.1% clip, which ranks 22nd out of 45 qualifying pitchers. Combine that fact with an infield that, defensively, ranked 25th in outs above average, and you have a pitcher that may have been forgotten about when only looking at traditional box score statistics but still has the pitching arsenal necessary to take a staff deep into the postseason.

Justin Verlander is also just as capable of stymieing opposing sluggers. The eventual American League Cy Young winner has an ERA that’s nearly a half-run lower than the next AL pitcher. One reason is he puts a lot of spin on his fastball to where it moves more than your typical four-seamer. Combine that with a curveball with an opposing batting average of .158 and an effective slider, and you have an ace on a pitching staff with more aces than a winning poker hand.

This series will feature incredible hitters like Bryce Harper and Yordan Alvarez, but one thing we know about Nola and Verlander is they can go deep into ballgames. Verlander faced these Phillies earlier this month and went five strong innings on just 77 pitches. Nola got through 6 and 2/3 unblemished innings with nine strikeouts. At the very least, I'm betting on the Phillies to cover the run line in Game 1. I see this game being decided at the top of the 9th inning, so I'll take the run line.

PICK: Phillies (+1 run line at FOX Bet)

Super 6 Contest Picks

Answer six questions right in tonight's big World Series matchup on FOX, and you could win the grand prize of $25,000. It’s fast, FREE, and all it takes is downloading the FOX Super 6 app on your phone or mobile device.

And if you need help, I'm here to guide you through it. So let's have some fun and break down the contest's questions.

How many total runs will be scored in the game?

Because I expect both starting pitchers to go deep into Game 1 to save bullpen arms for later, that assumption means a lower-scoring contest. However, with two of the top five offenses in expected batting average playing, I’ll split the difference and go with 8-9 runs.

Which team will throw the most strikeouts and how many will they have?

No bullpen has more strikeouts per nine innings than the Astros. While the Phillies are not far behind, I expect more swings from Philly hitters to try and capitalize on the shallow parts of Minute Maid Park. It’ll be the Astros with nine strikeouts.

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

At some point, I will credit the Phillies for being likelier to have better iso numbers. Still, Astros sluggers are likelier to string singles and doubles together, hit for average and end with more hits than the Phillies. Eight should be a safe number.

Which team will have the most combined individual baserunners left on base and how many will they have?

One place where the Astros have struggled is base running. Extra Bases Taken Percentage accounts for how often base runners can turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Houston ranks third from the bottom. I expect Game 1 to be close only because Houston isn’t hitting more runners home. Take the Astros with 5-6.

Which team will have the most at-bats and how many will they have?

The answer is Houston because I expect they will strand more baserunners. However, be careful here because at-bats and plate appearances are different. The Astros could accrue more walks which do not count as at-bats. A lower number is still ok here, so I’ll take 31.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

The Astros by one run. No need to overthink what tends to happen in postseason games.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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