Major League Baseball

2022 World Series odds: Super 6 picks, best bets for Astros-Phillies Game 5

Updated Nov. 3, 2022 11:17 a.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Class, the time has come for your final exam: the World Series. 

And what a series it's been so far, with the Astros evening it up after a no-hitter. Nothing gets better than this!

Hopefully, you've studied hard this season, learned new tools, and made a few extra bucks in the process.  Remember to keep your eyes on your own papers for this last stretch because we’re going to go over Game 5, the overall series and some Super 6 fun.

Let's break down my favorite bets and Super 6 picks for today's action, with odds, of course, courtesy of FOX Bet!

Houston Astros throw a combined no-hitter to beat the Phillies

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry break down the Houston Astros' combined no-hitter in Game 4 of the World Series.

Houston Astros (Verlander) at Philadelphia Phillies (Syndergaard) at (8:03 p.m. ET Thursday, FOX and FOX Sports App)

Much has been made about Justin Verlander’s stats in his World Series appearances: 0-6 with a 5.68 ERA. It’s the most pitching losses without a win in MLB history.

First, if you want to fail this class, cite a pitcher’s record as an argument for anything. It might be the most worthless baseball statistic out there. Second of all, not every appearance was a disaster. In Game 5 of the 2006 World Series, Verlander allowed one earned run in six innings of work. Game 6 of the 2017 World Series was a six-inning, three-hit outing. Even in Game 1 a few days ago, his fielding independent pitching was a respectable 3.31; he just had some bad luck. Verlander still possesses one of the more dangerous four-seam fastballs in the game and can have a good World Series outing. So again, don't just look at wins and losses when analyzing a game or a bet.

The Phillies sending Noah Syndergaard to the mound likely signifies a bullpen game where Syndergaard gets through the order roughly once before a parade of relievers come in to try and stifle Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve & Co. However, during Game 4’s loss, manager Rob Thomson used some key arms like José Alvarado and David Robertson. Granted, they need to get a little work in, so there’s not such a long break between their last appearances and Wednesday night, but do not be surprised to see a reliever stay on the mound longer than usual. How all of these hurlers handle the final home game for the Phillies this season will be the key to who wins Game 5.

In yesterday’s post, I posited that Game 4 would be the last pitcher’s duel of this World Series. While 5-0 isn’t exactly a pitcher’s duel, it was an Under winner. One of the things we’ve seen is just how needed Bryce Harper is to this Phillies batting order. His average exit velocity ranks in the 92nd percentile in MLB, and his expected on-base percentage of .369 ranks 11th among MLB hitters with at least 250 at bats. He should have pitches to hit on Thursday from either Verlander or Astros relievers. Combine that with the aforementioned Astros hitters, who may shell at least one reliever in this bullpen game, and you should absolutely hammer the Over. If you are feeling frisky and want a bet with some good odds, Alvarez's anytime home run wager is also a lean I would consider.

PICK: Astros-Phillies Over 7.5 combined runs scored (+100 at FOX Bet, bet $10 to win $20 total)
PICK: Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run (+330)

Another way to earn a good grade is by answering the FOX Bet Super 6 question-and-answer portion of class. You have a chance here to win free money, so here are my tips.

Super 6 Contest Picks

How many total runs will be scored in the game?

Bryce Harper returned to the Phillies lineup after a thumb injury in late August. If you rank how Phillies’ hitters have performed against the rest of MLB since the date of Harper’s return, the Astros have the seventh-highest expected on-base percentage while the Phillies rank eighth. Both are capable of a lot of runs. I’m taking 8-9 runs.

Which team will throw the most strikeouts and how many will they have?

We can use these same splits to look at how frequently each team was striking out in the last two months. The Astros have the second-lowest strikeout rate (19.2%), while the Phillies rank 15th (23.5%). There’s a reason why Verlander is the flamethrower he is and why manager Dusty Baker wanted to keep him in his usual spot in a series like this. Houston will have more strikeouts, with a total of 10.

Which team will have the most hits and how many will they have?

It’s possible that, in a bullpen game, Astros hitters will either strikeout or hit for power (and perhaps home runs). In that spirit, I would expect a lot of swings. For every pitch that resulted in a swing, the Phillies have the second-highest expected on-base percentage (.264), while the Astros rank 6th (.261). The difference is too small to be considered useful, so context matters more. The Phillies will have more hits with 9.

Which team will have the most combined individual baserunners left on base and how many will they have?

While the Phillies will have more hits, most of them will be for singles or doubles. Verlander has the seventh-lowest home runs per nine innings allowed (0.62). I like their chances of making contact, but not to plate runners. I’ll choose 7-8.

Which team will have the most at-bats and how many will they have?

27 at bats for the Phillies plus the nine hits I’m expecting them to have, gets me to Philadelphia with 36.

Which team will win and by how many runs?

As much as I have the Phillies stringing hits together to keep threats alive, it’s the power Astros hitters will show against an unsuspecting relief pitcher that will be the difference. Houston will win by 2.

Class dismissed!

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.