Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: Best bet for Astros-Rangers Game 2; must-win for Houston?

Updated Oct. 16, 2023 6:31 p.m. ET

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Game 1 of the ALCS is in the books, as the Texas Rangers remain unbeaten in the postseason, shutting out the Astros 2-0 on Sunday night.

It was not without drama, as Rangers reliever Aroldis Chapman stood on the same mound where he gave up a pennant-clinching walk-off home run to Jose Altuve four years ago. Alex Bregman threatened to give Chapman another painful memory, nearly tying the game in the eighth inning. However, Rangers rookie outfielder Evan Carter made a leaping catch against the wall and turned the scary moment into a double play.

Jordan Montgomery was brilliant for the visitors, while these two explosive offenses combining for just two runs was possibly — at least somewhat — of a product of the long layoff between rounds. Game 2 is Monday afternoon, where another loss by the Astros would mean they’d need to win four of the next five games to advance, as the series shifts to Texas for games 3-5.

The term "must-win game" gets overused, and maybe we’re not there considering the Astros' ability to win on the road (51-30 this season), but it’s close. Nate Eovaldi goes for the Rangers and has become a force in the postseason, as he’s added to that reputation with two dominant outings in October, despite struggling down the stretch of the regular season. Framber Valdez takes the mound for the Astros and has solid overall numbers, but has struggled with consistency this season and was roughed up in his ALDS loss against the Twins.

Let’s look at a bet for Game 2 and see if there’s some money to be made.

Framber Valdez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-150; bet $10 to win $16.67 total)

Valdez faced the Rangers three times in the regular season, and the results were mixed. In September, he was dominant in Texas, going seven innings and allowing only one run, while back in July, he couldn’t make it out of the fourth inning. In his first start of the season against the Rangers, he allowed five runs in six innings, but only one was earned.

ALCS Game 1 Recap: Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez and David Ortiz recap Rangers' 2-0 win vs. Astros

I like the Over here because Valdez has the raw stuff, striking out 200 batters this season, just over one batter per inning. He also has an old-school manager in Dusty Baker, who, unlike many of his peers in today’s game, will actually allow his starter to work deep into games.

Against the Twins in the ALDS, Christian Javier and Jose Urquidy, both back of the rotation guys, were allowed to work into the sixth inning, while Urquidy even got to face a batter after allowing a sixth-inning home run.

If Valdez is afforded a similar leash and pitches into the sixth inning, getting to five strikeouts here is certainly attainable.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN and the Goldboys Network.