Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: Best futures bets to make on Astros, Orioles, Cardinals

Published May. 25, 2023 12:38 p.m. ET

The 50-game mark is one of my favorite times to reassess the Major League Baseball futures markets to see what’s available.

A handful of teams have overachieved, while some others have underachieved and the betting arithmetic has naturally shifted accordingly.

Sometimes you can find better numbers on high-profile teams because they either didn’t play well out of the gate or another team came out of nowhere.

I'm always looking for good opportunities to buy low and three teams stick out. Here are the bets I’m making right now as May wraps up.

Houston Astros to win AL West (-150)

We all know Houston is winning the division, right?

The reigning World Series champs were a $2 favorite (-200) on Opening Day, which made a ton of sense. Aside from the super-sexy Seattle Mariners, a team everybody was fawning over, there weren't supposed to be many challengers in the West.

Well, Seattle is currently .500, but the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels have overachieved — currently making Houston cheaper to win another division title. But the Astros are still the clear-cut favorite, and most betting models have them winning over 95 games. Hell, I think they might win 100.

So I’ll gladly lay -150 with expectations that the Astros will be -300 by September when the Angels, Mariners and Rangers fade.

PICK: Astros (-150; bet $10 to win $16.67) to win AL West

Baltimore Orioles to make playoffs (+118)

I’m not getting a better number here, but interestingly, the Orioles are still plus money to reach the postseason.

There’s always a lingering notion that teams like the O’s are over their skis and will run out of gas. And maybe it'll happen a la last season when Baltimore finished 15-18 down the home stretch and fell short of its first playoff appearance in six seasons.

But I actually think the Orioles experiencing September pressure last year will help them immensely this year. Their younger players will be much better prepared to take care of business. It also doesn’t hurt that Baltimore pairs the second-best bullpen ERA (3.00) with a top-10 fielding percentage.

Tampa Bay (-3500) is a mortal lock to make the playoffs and New York (-340) and Toronto (-195) have better odds than the Orioles because they’re "supposed" to make it.

Don’t mind me, I’ll be over here on Baltimore's bandwagon.

PICK: Orioles (+118; bet $10 to win $21.80) to make playoffs

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St. Louis Cardinals to win NL pennant (+1600)

The Cardinals were blasted to win the NL Central early last week at any price higher than +400. The market started dipping, then St. Louis won two out of three against Milwaukee and three out of four against Los Angeles.

Bye-bye, big divisional prices.

That said, I still think there’s some relative value on the Redbirds to win the National League. Most pundits are putting the Braves or Dodgers in the Fall Classic, which isn’t surprising at all.

But are you really popping L.A. at +200 or Atlanta at +230?

I’m diving deeper down the board and circling St. Louis because I believe the Cardinals are about to burn through a very, very weak Central and win it. That would give them the No. 3 seed in the National League and a much easier playoff path than the New York Mets or San Diego Padres.

A lineup with Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Nolan Gorman and Willson Contreras could be a problem in the postseason and if the Cardinals acquire a big arm at the deadline, they’ll be sneaky dangerous in October.

PICK: Cardinals (+1600; bet $10 to win $170) to win NL pennant

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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