Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: Shohei Ohtani trade would cause huge shift in MVP lines

Updated Jul. 19, 2023 7:31 p.m. ET

A Shohei Ohtani trade to the National League could cause the biggest domino rally in the history of in-season baseball betting markets.

And that’s not hyperbole.

Ohtani is a whopping $8 favorite [$800 wins $100] to win the American League MVP award right now, but that market would look drastically different should the Los Angeles Angels decide to deal baseball’s unicorn to the Senior Circuit before the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

"We were just talking about this the other day on MLB Network," betting analyst and former Las Vegas bookmaker Dave Sharapan told FOX Sports.

"The best bookmakers are ready for anything and everything. There’s a 'Break glass in case of emergency' with the Ohtani situation. As soon as the trade rumors start flying, you get the guys together in the back and hammer out a second set of [AL MVP numbers] over some cheesesteaks.

"Nobody leaves 'til the numbers are done."

The AL MVP recalibration without Ohtani would be an exercise unlike any other since the explosion of sports betting. Twenty years ago — hell, even five years ago — you could only bet award markets like MVP and Cy Young in Nevada and those markets mostly shut down on Opening Day.

Nowadays, certain sportsbooks take bets on that stuff all season long. And these markets are fluid due to on-field production and monetary accumulation from people firing wagers on their phones and at betting windows.

It’s completely normal to see a player go from 12-1 (+1200) in early April to 25-1 by early May to 6-1 by mid-June. However, we’ve never seen an MVP favorite reach -700 or -800 by July 1 and find himself on the trade block.

"There’s no precedent in the history of baseball," Sharapan said.

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The only other MVP candidates I can remember being dealt to a different league in the middle of a season are Mark McGwire and Manny Ramirez.

A year before McGwire broke Roger Maris’ single-season home run record, the behemoth Bash Brother smashed 34 homers in 105 games for the 1997 Oakland Athletics. He was dealt to St. Louis on July 31 and hit 24 more homers for the Cardinals to finish with 58 across both leagues.

McGwire finished 16th in the NL voting and didn’t place in the AL.

Ramirez was traded from the Boston Red Sox to the Los Angeles Dodgers on July 31, 2008, and went on an absolute tear down the stretch. He racked up 17 homers and 53 RBIs over 53 games and the Dodgers clinched the NL West.

Manny finished fourth in the NL voting and didn’t place in the AL.

Ken Rosenthal provides an update on Shohei Ohtani trade rumors

Ken Rosenthal provided an update on the Shohei Ohtani trade rumors surrounding the Los Angeles Angels and the Los Angeles Dodgers.

History tells us Ohtani would be a massive underdog to win an MVP in one league if he gets traded to the other at the deadline. Then again, a player like Ohtani only comes around every 100 years.

"The crazy thing is that Ohtani is still live to win the American League MVP if he gets traded to the National League," Sharapan said. "I personally wouldn’t think his résumé over 100 games or so would be strong enough to be more deserving than Corey Seager or Kyle [Tucker] or Wander Franco, but it’s a fascinating conversation."

Yes it is.

"I could still see the baseball writers wanting to make a statement by voting for Ohtani," NESN Red Sox host Tom Caron told me. "You could make the argument that what Ohtani did as two players over two-thirds of a season is greater than one player for a full season."

One respected baseball voter I spoke to said that even if Ohtani were traded tomorrow, he would strongly consider placing him on the top line.

"He’s a top-three MVP vote no matter what," the voter said.

Wild, isn’t it?

As for the odds windfall that would transpire if Ohtani changed leagues, it would be unlike anything we’ve ever seen, considering the AL MVP market is basically decided, assuming he stays. But everything goes to hell should Arte Moreno pull the trigger and send Ohtani to the National League.

I could hear Sharapan’s wheels spinning from Sin City.

"Seager goes from 20-1 to 4-1 right away," he computed on the fly. "The rest of the guys get whacked by at least half, if not more. Kyle Tucker goes from 30-1 to 10-1. [Randy] Arozarena and Franco take huge dips from the 40-1 range. Those are the best players on the AL’s best team.

"Then what do you do with a guy like Adley Rutschman? He’s 85-1 right now. Sheesh. There’s no way you’re dealing any price near that without Ohtani. The entire market gets turned on its head if this guy goes to the National League.

"There are seven guys that could win it if Ohtani goes poof."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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