2023 MLB odds: Checking in on 3 preseason betting favorites
The New York Yankees, Houston Astros and San Diego Padres were three of baseball’s most popular teams at the betting window heading into 2023.
Houston (+600, bet $10 to win $70 total) was the odds-on favorite at most American sportsbooks to win its second consecutive World Series, New York (+700) was right on the Astros' heels and San Diego (+900) morphed into an extremely sexy option with bettors salivating over a billion-dollar lineup featuring Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Xander Bogaerts.
Fast-forward to late June and those three ballclubs are a combined 24.5 games out of first place in their divisional races.
Wild, isn’t it?
New York is still a substantial favorite (-240) to make the postseason, but the Yankees are as high as +1500 to win the loaded American League East. Any potential playoff ticket will likely have to be punched through a wild-card spot.
Most importantly, the Bronx Bombers need their biggest bomber to get healthy. New York is 11-16 this season without reigning MVP Aaron Judge, who is on the disabled list with a sprained toe.
There’s still no definitive timeline for Judge’s return.
"There are all sorts of stats that show the offensive difference when Judge is in the lineup and when he’s not," Westgate SuperBook senior baseball trader Randy Blum told FOX Sports. "But that’s not the only reason they’re scuffling.
"The starting pitching has been a real issue. It’s just not what Yankee brass drew up in the offseason. [Gerrit] Cole has been great, but [Carlos] Rodón hasn’t pitched a game yet, and I know they expected [Luis] Severino to be a whole lot better than he’s been. [Nestor] Cortes hasn’t been able to duplicate what he did last year either, and now he’s on the disabled list.
"Judge means a lot because of his production and protection, but the Yankees are in a funk right now. The offense is far from great. The starters haven’t been good. There’s no sugarcoating their struggles."
Meanwhile, the defending champion Astros are closer to fourth place than first place in a surprisingly strong AL West — a division they’ve won in five of the past six seasons.
The Texas Rangers are 19 games over .500 thanks to an offense that leads the league with 455 runs scored, 715 hits and a .341 on-base percentage. Then there are the Los Angeles Angels with five-dollar AL MVP favorite Shohei Ohtani and three-time MVP Mike Trout.
Maybe we’re in for a real race in the West?
"The Astros have been crushed by injuries," Blum said. "[Lance] McCullers hasn’t pitched all year, and now he’s out for the season. Luis García is out for the year after Tommy John surgery. [José] Altuve got hurt in the World Baseball Classic and now [Yordan] Álvarez is out for multiple weeks.
"Let’s give the other teams some credit, too. The Rangers and Angels have overperformed, so it won’t be easy for the Astros to just turn it on. Nobody expected the Rangers to be this good and time will tell if they can keep it up. There’s a lot of talent on that ballclub.
"I always joke around that the Angels are the easiest win total to make every year. Open 82.5 or 83.5 every year and just throw it up. Ohtani is the MVP barring an injury, and they’re doing some good things around him. I wonder if their pitching can keep up, but it’s definitely a three-team race."
The sky isn’t — and shouldn’t be — falling in New York and Houston, where the Yankees (-240) and Astros (-180) are still favored to make the MLB playoffs.
However, the Padres might be in real trouble.
The Fathers are an alarming 20-20 at Petco Park this season. And that loaded lineup we mentioned earlier? It’s scored the least amount of runs (332) in the NL West.
Sheesh.
Have the San Diego Padres finally turned things around?
"It’s been a weird year for San Diego," Blum gauged. "When you look at their lineup, you say, ‘Oh wow, they have this player and this player and this player.’ The Padres look amazing on paper, but it’s one of those scenarios where the pieces just haven’t fit and come together yet.
"Guys are coming on a little bit lately. Soto had a real tough first month, but he’s been much better. Same with Machado, and obviously Tatis Jr. is back in the mix. The Padres have a lot of brand names and big-time hitters, but something is off there.
"As for the starters, Yu Darvish and Blake Snell were nice acquisitions for the franchise, but people tend to overreact to moves like that. Darvish has a ton of innings on his arm over the years and let’s be honest, you’ve got to pay attention when the Rays are looking to get rid of somebody.
"San Diego’s preseason hype was a little too high."
If you’re looking for a bet to make, you should circle Houston.
Let’s not forget the Astros were a two-dollar Opening Day favorite to win an AL West that was supposed to be a relative cakewalk. Obviously, the Rangers and Angels have exceeded expectations so far, but there is a lot of baseball left and plenty of time for Houston to make things interesting.
Blum likes the Astros to catch up down the stretch.
"There’s still time for all three teams to get healthy and make a run," Blum said. "But I like Houston the most. [Kyle] Tucker is starting to swing the bat well and once they get Álvarez back, the production will pick back up. There’s enough young pitching there to get it going.
"The Astros (6.5 games behind in AL West) have six games left against the Angels and 10 against the Rangers. There’s enough room there to chop that lead. Houston is hands-down the best all-around team in that division. Most of that core knows how to win. Pedigree is a big deal in August and September.
"I like Texas, but it’s tough to imagine ‘em keeping this pace for 162."
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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