Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: How to bet Astros-Rangers Game 3; ALCS pick, prediction

Updated Oct. 18, 2023 12:54 p.m. ET

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

With two games in the books for MLB's American League Championship Series, the series now shifts to Texas — well, Arlington, more specifically — as the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros will match up in a pivotal Game 3 to determine who advances to the World Series.

The Rangers continue their remarkable run (they are 7-0 this postseason) as they won both games in Houston and now lead the series 2-0.

When they take the field for Game 3 on Wednesday night (8 p.m. ET, FS1 and FOX Sports App), it will be just their second home game in these playoffs as they have done the majority of their damage on the road.

Cristian Javier will get the start on the mound for the Astros, but the headline here is Rangers starting pitcher Max Scherzer.

The three-time Cy Young Award winner and future first-ballot Hall of Famer will pitch for the first time since Sept. 12. The Rangers are small -130 favorites (a $10 bet pays $17.69 total) with the Over/Under set to 9.5.

It's very hard to have an opinion on any of those offerings without trying to forecast just what we'll see from Scherzer. He did face Houston on Sept. 6 but struggled to keep the ball in the park, giving up three home runs in just three innings in a 12-3 loss, allowing seven runs.

Scherzer made another start on Sept. 12 and then was placed on the injured list with a shoulder injury. He was then left off the roster for the ALDS.

Everyone is wondering the same thing right now: how healthy is he? We saw Scherzer with the Mets last year return from an oblique injury that landed him on the IL late in the season and then struggle when he returned, culminating with a postseason loss to the Padres in which he yielded four home runs.

With all of that concern being noteworthy, this is still Max freaking Scherzer, and if he's healthy, he can help put the defending champs in an 0-3 hole and on the brink of elimination.

Admittedly, I don't have much conviction on what we'll get from Scherzer or even how long he'll pitch, so let's try to find another angle I feel stronger about betting.

Derek Jeter and David Ortiz preview Game 3 of the ALCS

Will Rangers pitch to Alvarez?

Greg Maddux was once asked what it was like to pitch to Barry Bonds, and Maddux amusingly claimed that it was easy.

He explained that if Bonds came to the plate in an important situation, Maddux would simply walk him because recording 27 outs was necessary to win a baseball game, and Bonds was unlikely to provide any of those 27.

We're not at the vaunted "Bonds-level" treatment with Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez ... yet.

Alvarez hit two home runs in Game 2 against the Rangers, bringing his postseason home run tally to six in just as many games. At some point, the Rangers may decide to pick their fights elsewhere in Houston's lineup and just walk Alvarez.

That wasn't an optimal option in Game 2 because the Rangers scored four early runs and were nursing a multi-run lead throughout the game, meaning Alvarez was pitched to in situations where nobody was on base, and he wasn't the tying run.

Considering the recent home-run binge by Alvarez, I'm not sure the Rangers will be as brave against the terrifying lefty in Game 3.

An intentional walk cashes this bet for us as the Rangers may decide to take their chances with somebody else, anybody else, and let Alvarez walk to first base as opposed to watching him trot around all the bases.

Alvarez drawing at least one walk is a bet I'm making for Game 3.

PICK: Yordan Alvarez Over .5 walks (-105 at time of pick, bet $10 to win $19.52 total)

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.