Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: How to bet Rangers-Astros Game 6; ALCS pick, prediction

Published Oct. 22, 2023 1:26 p.m. ET

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Before we get to Game 6 of the American League Championship Series, we should take a moment to appreciate how great Game 5 was, as Friday provided us with one of the more exciting and memorable days in recent postseason history.

Few things in sports are as dramatic as a late-inning home run that changes the outcome of a playoff baseball game, and we got a couple of them on Friday night.

José Altuve took the Astros from the brink of elimination to one win away from the World Series with his three-run homer in Game 5, giving Houston a 3-2 series lead.

A few hours later, Arizona Diamondbacks outfielder Alek Thomas hit a two-run shot that tied Game 4 of the NLCS and helped tie that series.

With the Philadelphia Phillies winning Game 5 Saturday night, both World Series participants from last year are now in the same position, up 3-2 in the series, heading home with a chance to clinch in Game 6, with another chance at home in Game 7 if necessary.

A rematch of the previous World Series is now not only possible but exceedingly likely – something that hasn't happened since 1977 and 1978 when the Yankees defeated the Dodgers in six games in back-to-back years.

Will the Astros clinch on Sunday? Or will the Texas Rangers force a Game 7?

The pitching matchup for Game 6 is a rematch of Game 2, with Nathan Eovaldi going against Framber Valdez.

Let's dive into my best bet for Game 6 (8 p.m. ET Sunday, FOX and FOX Sports App).

In Game 2, Eovaldi added to his growing reputation as a big-game playoff pitcher with nine strikeouts over six solid innings, including escaping a bases-loaded, nobody-out jam.

But I like the Astros to win Game 6 because one thing that gives me confidence is that they had their chances against Eovaldi in Game 2 as they had seven baserunners over those six innings, including a pair of homers.

On the other hand, Valdez had an ugly stat line and failed to make it through three innings, but did get a lot of swings and misses (six strikeouts in 2.2 innings). Also, I noticed much of the damage against Valdez was on soft hits and a throwing error, which helped Texas score four runs in the first.

Justin Verlander talks his pitching performance, Astros comeback

The elephant in the room for this game, and this series so far, is that nobody can win at home. What makes it even more bizarre is the Astros have been like this all season, and it has gotten more emphatic in the playoffs, as they were 39-42 at home during the regular season and 51-30 on the road, and are now 1-3 at home in the playoffs, but a perfect 5-0 on the road.

Astros manager Dusty Baker was asked for his theories about this unusual trend and had none to offer. I'm with Baker, I don't get it, and I can't begin to explain it.

That said, I'm going back to why I picked the Astros before the series – bullpen and experience. The Astros had the sixth-best bullpen ERA this year while Texas was 24th, and we're starting to see over a long series that the Rangers may not have the depth in pitching to get 27 outs over a seven-game series.

The Astros are starting to feel like fictional horror movie villains Michael Myers or Freddy Krueger – impossible to put down and invulnerable to seemingly any adverse circumstance.

I expect the Astros to win Game 6 and advance to their third straight World Series.

PICK: Astros moneyline (-120) to win Game 6 (bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.