Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: How to bet Rangers-Astros Game 7; ALCS pick, prediction

Updated Oct. 23, 2023 12:17 p.m. ET

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

There are no sweeter words in sports than Game 7.

For all the upsets and unpredictability this postseason has given us, we have not yet had a winner-take-all deciding game until now.

The Rangers fell behind early in Game 6, and the Astros looked poised to break the game open and advance to their third consecutive World Series.

But the Rangers held the Astros to just one run in the first inning before tying the game on the first pitch of the second inning, taking the lead in the fifth, and holding off an eighth-inning Astros rally to even the series.

Both teams went 90-72 in the regular season, with the Astros winning the AL West on a tiebreaker, while the six games in the ALCS have yielded a 3-3 split.

Essentially, 168 games haven’t been enough to determine the superior team, so it all comes down to game No. 169.

The pitching matchup is a rematch of Game 3. Max Scherzer goes for the Rangers, and the Astros will counter with Cristian Javier. The Astros are small -125 favorites, and the Over/Under for runs scored is nine.

Game 7 — which can be seen at 8 p.m. ET on FOX/FS1 and the FOX Sports App — will send one of these teams to the World Series and the other team home. Let’s try to find a winner.

Houston Astros, Texas Rangers will play a Game 7 with a World Series berth on the line

The theme of this series has been home-field disadvantage, as Alex Rodriguez cleverly put it. The road team is now 6-0, and in the history of North American sports, there has only been one seven-game series where the road team won every game (the 2019 World Series between the Nationals and the Astros).

In that series, Scherzer started Game 7 on the road, in Houston, just as he will tonight.

Scherzer will be elected into the Hall of Fame as soon as he is eligible, five years after finishing his brilliant career. I’m just not sure if he can get through the five innings he’d need to get over this number of outs recorded.

His start in Game 3 was his first in about five weeks, and he was sharp early on, breezing through a scoreless first. However, things quickly unraveled for Scherzer, as he allowed seven baserunners and five runs over four innings, including a home run. One of his last outings before he missed the end of the regular season with a shoulder injury was also against the Astros, and he lasted just three innings, allowing seven runs and three home runs.

Scherzer is one of the greatest pitchers of all time, but at his age and coming off of an injury, I am skeptical of how effective he will be. It’s Game 7, and every pitcher on the roster is available, including starter Jordan Montgomery, who can likely give them a couple of innings. The leash will be short on Scherzer, and I expect an outing similar in length to his Game 3 start, where he recorded 12 outs and was done after four innings.

Let’s go Under here.

PICK: Max Scherzer UNDER 13.5 outs recorded

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.