Major League Baseball

2023 MLB odds: How to bet Rangers-Diamondbacks Game 3; pick, prediction

Updated Oct. 30, 2023 11:04 a.m. ET

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

The Arizona Diamondbacks will start right-hander Brandon Pfaadt — who has been a tremendous story this season — against the Texas Rangers in Game 3 of the World Series on Monday (8 p.m. ET, FOX and FOX Sports App).

On May 26, Pfaddt gave up five runs in just 3.1 innings in a 7-2 home loss to the Boston Red Sox, and his ERA ballooned to 8.37. He was sent down to the minors following the game.

He returned to the majors on June 29, then gave up six runs in two innings in a 6-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays and was once again sent down after his start.

Fast-forward a few months, and Pfaadt is slated to start Game 3 of the World Series, looking for his fourth consecutive strong postseason start.

Is there a smart bet to put down involving the D-backs' starter? Let's dive in.

Can Pfaadt find the strike zone?

While the Diamondbacks will send a starter with just a handful of career starts under his belt to the mound, the Rangers will counter with one of the most accomplished pitchers of this generation, three-time Cy Young winner Max Scherzer.

The series is tied 1-1 after the Diamondbacks got a brilliant start from Merrill Kelly in Game 2, and Game 3 has the Rangers as -112 favorites (bet $10 to win $18.93 total), while the Over/Under for total runs scored is nine.

We have a fascinating matchup here — old versus young, a Diamondbacks rookie versus a former Diamondbacks rookie.

The game itself is so interesting because of the discrepancy in experience and résumés between the two pitchers.

Scherzer, who spent the first two seasons of his career with the Diamondbacks, has not lasted more than four innings in either of his two starts since missing five weeks with a shoulder injury.

Let’s instead focus on the aforementioned Pfaadt, who has emerged for the Diamondbacks amid their postseason surge.

In just over 16 innings, Pfaadt has racked up 22 strikeouts in the playoffs, including 16 in his last two starts combined.

Not only is he trending up, but I expect the recent strong outings to perhaps give Pfaadt even more of a leash to pitch deeper into the game, thus more opportunity to rack up strikeouts.

Pfaadt's last two starts were facing elimination in Game 7 of the National League Championship Series and Game 3 of the NLCS, when the Diamondbacks trailed the series against the Philadelphia Phillies 2-0.

Those starts were only 5.2 innings in Game 3 and four innings in Game 7, but they were both must-win games, making aggressive bullpen managing more prevalent.

In a 1-1 series, coming off of some impressive starts, Pfaadt should get some slack here, and with the way he’s pitching, five or more strikeouts is doable.

After striking out 94 in 96 innings pitched during the regular season, he's fanned 22 in 16.2 innings in the postseason.

Let's go Over 4.5 strikeouts.

PICK: Brandon Pfaadt Over 4.5 strikeouts (-120, bet $10 to win $18.33 total)

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bear's Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.