Odds, insight on if Shohei Ohtani can break Aaron Judge's AL HR record

Updated Jul. 28, 2023 1:23 p.m. ET

The Los Angeles Angels unicorn is a big ol' underdog to break Aaron Judge’s single-season American League home run record, but that isn’t stopping one sportsbook from taking bets on it.

BetMGM is currently dealing +1200 odds [bet $10 to win $130 total] on Ohtani hitting at least 63 homers.

Those odds imply a minuscule 8% chance of probability because it’s highly unlikely Ohtani will slug 25 more homers in the Angels’ last 59 games.

Truthfully, you should probably get higher odds.

I can promise you people aren’t running to the window to lay -5000 odds [bet $10 to win $10.20 total] on Ohtani not breaking Judge’s AL record because most bettors want to bet a little to win a lot. Think of Conor McGregor against Floyd Mayweather — people would much rather fire $100 to win $550 than bet $800 to win $100.

So while +1200 might be enticing, it should probably be +2000.

FanGraphs currently projects Ohtani to finish with around 53 homers, which would obviously have you 10 long balls short of cashing that ticket. Let’s also remember Ohtani smashed 36 homers in the Angels’ first 100 games two seasons ago. Everybody got all excited, which led to pundits claiming he was "on pace" to hit 60 before he finished the year with 46.

Close, but no cigar.

Perhaps the most important facet of Ohtani’s remaining 59 games is that the trade rumors and daily speculation appear to be over. Sure, things can change leading up to the deadline, but it's likely Ohtani stays with the Angels for the remainder of 2023, which might spearhead another offensive tear.

The odds are heavily against the Angels making a deal to get better, then dealing baseball’s best player days later. That would make absolutely no sense.

Three-time AL MVP Mike Trout will also rejoin the fold soon, which will offer Ohtani some much-needed protection in the Angels’ lineup as he chases history. Those two superstars must stay healthy if the Angels want to reach the postseason for the first time in eight years.

Ohtani acknowledged thinking about the AL home run record but agreed that staying healthy is also on his mind.

"Of course," Ohtani said. "I would like to break the record. But before all that I need to stay healthy, end the year healthy. That's the focus right now."

If you’re looking for an Ohtani-related bet to make, DraftKings is offering +700 [$100 wins $700] on the Angels making the postseason. They’re only four games out of a Wild Card spot, and clearly, the front office wants to give this group the rest of the season to see if the cream rises.

I would much rather make that bet than fire an Ohtani-Judge home run bet into the sun. Sorry to be anticlimactic, but I don’t want you wasting your money.

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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