Major League Baseball

2023 MLB World Series title futures that offer value, plus a long shot

Published Mar. 29, 2023 2:27 p.m. ET

By Edward Egros
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

Welcome back, everyone!

When we last met, I reviewed how to bet on the three favorites to win the Fall Classic.

However, the actual list of favorites extends to just a few ball clubs. Outside of that, there are still a few squads that offer some betting good value.

So let’s dive in, with odds courtesy of FOX Bet!

Atlanta Braves: +750 (bet $10 to win $85 total)

If I didn’t like the New York Mets, I must like the Braves, right?

Right.

Their offseason was more modest than their New York counterparts, but that’s because they haven’t needed to make massive moves. Even the one off-season trade that did turn heads didn’t feel like desperation. The Braves acquired catcher Sean Murphy, giving Atlanta two solid catchers in Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud. Both these players are expected to split playing time at the position. Murphy and d’Arnaud both finished in the top ten among catchers in expected batting average last season, which keeps the Braves from having to endure a drop-off when one takes the day off.

It also means the one who isn’t playing catcher can be the DH. If you compare those same xBA with designated hitters from last season who had at least 50 innings of work, they would both be in the top 20. This lineup has a few weaknesses but does have balance.

As for pitching, Max Fried and Charlie Morton should continue to be household names in Atlanta, but Spencer Strider maybe even better in 2023. Among those who pitched at least 100 innings last season, Strider led the way with 13.81 strikeouts per nine innings. While he only has two main pitches — a 98 mph fastball and an 86 mph slider — he is only 24 years old, and strikeout numbers tend to be one of the more stable pitching statistics. Strider represents a pitching staff that should have no problem finishing with one of the better records in the National League.

These are good title odds for the Braves, especially if they start the season hot.

Atlanta Braves Season Preview: Will their new additions help win the NL East title

Ben Verlander and Alex Curry bring you everything you need to know about the Atlanta Braves heading into the season.

Seattle Mariners: +1300 (bet $10 to win $140 total)

Normally I would not recommend a squad if I didn’t think they had a realistic chance of capturing one of the top two seeds in their league. Avoiding that extra postseason series greatly increases a ball club’s chances of winning a championship.

The M’s will have a tough time dethroning the Astros this season; however, assuming they win a Wild Card spot again, they will be better positioned to make a deeper run.

Perhaps their weakest position was at second base, where, according to Baseball Reference, the M’s ranked 24th in wins above average (-1.5). Enter Kolten Wong, a 10-year vet with solid plate discipline (his chase rate ranked in the 86th percentile in 2022). Add to that RF Teoscar Hernandez, and you have a lineup that shows real promise.

Of course, it's the pitching that will carry the Mariners in the postseason. Though Robbie Ray’s 2022 season didn’t include the strikeout numbers he posted in 2021, few lefties have a higher ceiling. The Mariners will also have a full season with Luis Castillo, whose four pitches in 2022 all had expected batting averages of less than .275. The rest of the starting rotation may not have the same caliber of resume, but in a postseason series, Seattle would be a tough out.

Minnesota Twins: +5500 (bet $10 to win $560 total)

Unlike last season, every squad plays everyone else. Meaning one strong team in an otherwise weak division will not have the luxury of beating up on the same opponents to boost their record to have a chance at those coveted top two seeds.

Because this schedule change is priced into the market, there may still be value in picking a division winner from a group that may be overlooked, such as the AL Central.

This time last year, massive deals for Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton made the Twins a trendy pick to make the postseason. Why should this season be any different? Is it because of Buxton’s knee injury that caused him to miss a lot of the season? If he’s at DH to start the season, the Twins get a bat with an average exit velocity of 92.9 mph (in the 97th percentile).

Is it because of the weird circumstances that led Correa to return to Minnesota? He’s playing now, and he’s coming off a season when his work at the plate earned him a wRC+ of 140 (40% better than the league average).

Minnesota's pitching will have a good mix of youth and experience, like Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle. This group has enough to contend in the division, and +5500 to win the World Series presents incredible value.

What’s fun about finding sleepers is how volatile the MLB’s Postseason truly is. The Phillies got hot at just the right time and were two wins away from a title. Granted, the Astros were highly touted throughout the season, but there are seasons when an unknown comes out of nowhere to contend.

And this could be the year when that happens again. The Twins are definitely worth a sprinkle.

Edward Egros is a sports analytics broadcaster/writer, a sports betting analyst, a data scientist and an adjunct professor of statistics at Pepperdine University. These passions have led him to become a cold brew aficionado. Edward previously worked in local television, notably at the Fox affiliate in Dallas covering the Rangers, Cowboys and high school football. Follow him on Twitter @EdWithSports.

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