Major League Baseball

2024 MLB odds: Bet on the Yankees to miss the postseason

Published Jul. 23, 2024 9:56 a.m. ET

By Will Hill
FOX Sports MLB Betting Analyst

On Thursday, June 13, the New York Yankees were 49-21 and owned the best record in MLB. They had a 3-2 lead in the bottom of the 9th inning in Kansas City after rallying from a late deficit, and were about to sweep the Royals.

However, Clay Holmes blew the save and the Yankees lost the series finale 4-3.

Was this the start of some long losing streak? Nope, the Yankees bounced right back and beat the Boston Red Sox 8-1 in Fenway Park to improve to 50-22, and at 28 games over .500, the Yankees appeared to be on pace to cruise to well over 100 wins.

But then a funny thing happened along the way.

The Yankees currently sit at 60-42, having lost 21 out of their last 32 games.

This disastrous stretch has taken place despite the excellence of Aaron Judge, who has a stat line of a .310 batting average, 35 home runs and 89 RBIs — numbers that would be MVP worthy for a full season, much less with a couple of weeks left in July.

(Side note: I wrote about Aaron Judge being a sleeper for MVP when he was struggling and had 16-1 odds in early May).

Judge’s teammate Juan Soto has been as good as advertised, with a .311 average and 25 home runs while leading the league in walks.

So, what’s the problem?

Well, everything else.

The starting pitching, which was outstanding until midway through June, has seen the likes of Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Nestor Cortes regress mightily.

The closer Holmes didn’t blow a save until late May. He’s now blown six.

Additionally, much-maligned slugger Giancarlo Stanton was having a productive season for the Yankees, hitting 18 home runs in 280 at bats with an OPS near .800 before he got injured a month ago, leaving the Yankees with very little offense around Soto and Judge.

With all of these issues, the Yankees are no longer a certainty to even make the playoffs.

The Yankees have 42 losses, and if the playoffs started today, they would be the top wild card team. But the first team on the outside looking in is the Red Sox, who only have 45 losses, meaning the Yankees' playoff cushion is not insurmountable.

The Yankees also head to Fenway this weekend, and follow that series with a trip to play the powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies.

I would think the Yankees will make some moves, get Stanton back, and start to play better. But with all the flaws this team has shown in the last five weeks, and its upcoming schedule, its lead for a postseason spot can quickly go from narrow to nonexistent.

Will the Yankees continue to swoon to the point where they actually miss the playoffs altogether? At 20-1 odds, it’s worth taking a chance to find out.

PICK: Yankees (+2000 at DraftKings Sportsbook) to Miss the Playoffs

Will Hill, a contributor on the Bears Bets Podcast, has been betting on sports for over a decade. He is a betting analyst who has been a host on VSiN, as well as the Goldboys Network.

Want great stories delivered right to your inbox? Create or log in to your FOX Sports account, and follow leagues, teams and players to receive a personalized newsletter daily!