Major League Baseball

2024 MLB odds: 'Yankees-Dodgers World Series would be a real needle mover'

Updated Jun. 16, 2024 1:03 p.m. ET

It’s been 43 years since the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees met in the MLB World Series. Republican president Ronald Reagan operated inside the Oval Office, the average price of gasoline was $1.35 and "Endless Love" by Diana Ross and Lionel Richie sat atop the Billboard charts.

My, how things have changed.

The present-day editions of the two baseball superpowers are destroying nearly everything in sight. Los Angeles (42-28) already holds a six-game lead in the NL West and New York (50-22) is on pace for 103 victories.

They’re both heavy favorites to win their respective leagues and if the betting math wins out, the Dodgers and Yankees will collide on baseball’s biggest stage for the record-breaking twelfth time in Major League history.

Sign me up.

"That would be a big improvement from last year’s World Series," Circa Sports sportsbook director Chris Bennett told FOX Sports. "The Diamondbacks were such a dud in terms of bringing excitement. If we can have Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts in the World Series, we’ll be stoked."

"It should be a net positive, too, although so much of the betting handle comes down to the individual games and what people believe from an opinion perspective. You can have two great teams and two superstar pitchers, but not much betting interest because people can’t find a bet to make. It’s hard to predict the handle for a hypothetical best-of-seven series.

"That said, a Yankees-Dodgers series would be a real needle mover for player props. That’s where interest would climb. You’ve got three superstar players in each lineup, and we would look to post as many props as possible."

I try not to get too far ahead of myself when writing stories like this, but big brands sell in sports. It’s why we flip on the television in mid-June and talking heads are analyzing the Los Angeles Lakers and Dallas Cowboys.

Annoying as it might be, it’s just the way it is.

If you’re looking for non-household names, look no further than the Yankees’ starting pitchers. Gerrit Cole hasn’t thrown a pitch this season and New York’s rotation boasts a collective 2.84 ERA, best in baseball.

Luis Gil (2.04), Clarke Schmidt (2.52) and Carlos Rodón (2.93) all have ERAs under three and the Yankees are 30-8 when that trio takes the mound.

Sheesh.

"Two things stick out about the Yankees," Bennett said. "The lineup and bullpen aren’t a surprise, but Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt are. Those guys have been absolutely dominant this season, and they were both projected to be backend starters at best during Spring Training.

"Nobody is pitching better [than Gil] right now."

Bennett’s shop is already down to +225 [$10 wins $22.50] on the Yankees to win the American League, an extremely respectful price this early in the season. Then there’s the Dodger number. Circa plowed Los Angeles through the 2-1 benchmark to its current odds at +175 [$10 wins $17.50] to reach the World Series.

That was Tiger Woods’ price at golf majors in his prime.

"If you don’t win your division, you play that extra series and the path gets tougher," Bennett explained. "The Dodgers are a massive favorite to come out of the NL West, while the Yankees have a small division lead over the Orioles. That’s why we’re shorter on the Dodgers to make the World Series.

"We did take a Yankees’ World Series bet at 9-1 a while back, though. We never felt we were dealing a number that was too high. I moved off that 9-1 price and have moved down further since the Yankees are in good position to be the No. 1 seed. We’re currently at +550, and we’re in a good spot."

Circa doesn’t let you parlay futures, but if you plugged their pennant prices into a parlay calculator, a Dodgers-Yankees World Series would pay +794. You might think that’s a rip-off, but DraftKings and FanDuel — books that allow you to parlay futures — are offering +712 and +544, respectively.

Moreover, that hypothetical parlay with Circa’s odds (+794) implies around a rather-slim 11 percent chance the Dodgers and Yankees both reach the Fall Classic.

"Even though I’m in the business of oddsmaking and knowing prices, I don’t think of anything in terms of a percentage," Bennett said. "I think about what a team’s pennant odds should be and their probabilities to be a one or two seed. Then they must win two series, so you calculate that probability.

"It seems like there’s a pretty good chance both the Dodgers and Yankees will be a one or two seed in their respective leagues and be favored in each playoff series. So if that works out to 11 percent, so be it."

I usually throw Bennett a curveball at the end of our chats because it’s always fun to wind him up and let him go on the baseball betting topic du jour. I know Dodgers and Yankees futures don’t phase him, but other things do.

Naturally, his main enigma this year didn’t disappoint.

"Mine’s easy because I just dealt with all the market moves [Thursday]," Bennett admitted. "It’s Garrett Crochet for the White Sox. You look at his last nine starts, and he’s right there with Luis Gil for best pitcher in baseball.

"Yes, the White Sox keep losing games, but they’ve been more competitive lately. They’ve blown a bunch of late leads over the last month and lost. So that dynamic of pricing a superstar pitcher on a bad team with a bad bullpen makes for interesting betting markets.

"You’ll notice the White Sox first-five inning price is much different than the full game price when Crochet pitches because of his dominance. These are the things that keep me going during such a long season."

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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