Major League Baseball

2025 MLB free-agent rankings: Top 10 pitchers

Updated Feb. 21, 2024 6:30 p.m. ET

While Juan Soto will serve as the headliner of the 2024-25 crop of free agents, a plethora of aces could also be finding new places next season.

The class of top arms could get even more stacked if 22-year-old Japanese sensation Roki Sasaki gets posted, Gerrit Cole opts out (the Yankees can void that by adding a 10th year to his deal at $36 million) or Justin Verlander turns down his player option in 2025, which will kick in if he pitches 140 innings this year.

In addition, both Nathan Eovaldi and Ryan Pressly have vesting options; Clayton Kershaw and Michael Wacha have player options; Robbie Ray, Lucas Giolito and Sean Manaea have opt-outs; and Freddy Peralta, Merril Kelly, Craig Kimbrel and Giovanny Gallegos are among the pitchers with club options.

Needless to say, next year's class brings a number of possibilities. To keep it simple, we won't include pitchers with options or opt-outs. These are the top 10 pitchers currently under contract who are tracking toward free agency in 2025:

THE STUDS

1) Corbin Burnes, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Age entering free agency: 30
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.46 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 179.1 IP, 191 K, 4.0 WAR

If only everyone's "down year" could end with the lowest WHIP in the league. Burnes saw his strikeout rate dip and walk rate elevate last year, but any serious concern was exaggerated. He found his form in the second half with a 2.71 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in 14 starts after the break, and he continues to be among the models of consistency at his position. Since 2020, the former Brewers ace ranks fifth in innings pitched and ERA and second in strikeouts and FanGraphs' WAR among all qualified pitchers.

Burnes is coming off three straight All-Star appearances and has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting four straight years, winning the award in 2021. His age, talent and reliability will make him the most coveted pitcher in free agency next year. Before then, the Orioles hope he can be the final piece to carry them where they hope to go in 2024 — and, perhaps, that they can convince him to stick around under new ownership. Still, as a Scott Boras client, I wouldn't anticipate an extension before he hits the market.

2) Zack Wheeler, RHP, Philadelphia Phillies
Age entering free agency: 35
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.61 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 172 IP, 172 K, 4.5 WAR

The only reason he's not No. 1 here is his age. Wheeler will turn 34 this May but remains one of the best pitchers in the sport. Ignore the 3.61 ERA — by fWAR, he was the most valuable pitcher in baseball last year. Under the hood, his peripheral numbers suggested he was pitching much better than the surface-level statistics indicated. And come October, there was no one better. He went 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA in the playoffs, striking out 35 with just three walks over five appearances (four starts). In Philadelphia, his ace potential has been fully realized. The Phillies just let Aaron Nola reach free agency before the two sides came to a new agreement. Don't be surprised if the same happens for Wheeler next winter.

Phillies' Zack Wheeler records eight K's in six IP against Diamondbacks

THE (HEALTH-PERMITTING) HEADLINERS

3) Max Fried, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Age entering free agency: 31
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.27 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 129.1 IP, 118 K, 2.8 WAR

Next year's free-agent pitching class is not short on talent. It is, however, short on elite left-handed talent. Fried will be the best southpaw on the market, but a clean bill of health this year will go a long way toward determining the kind of payday that awaits. Since debuting in 2017, he has thrown more than 180 innings just once — in 2022, when he finished second in Cy Young Award voting.

Last year, he was limited to 14 starts due to hamstring, blister and forearm injuries. He still went 8-1 with a 2.55 ERA, holding opponents to a .109 average against his curveball and posting his best whiff rate since 2018. He continued inducing the soft contact that has helped him to a combined 2.66 ERA since the start of the 2020 season. In that time, though, there are 39 starters who have pitched more innings than him. That uncertainty could explain why he hasn't been among the litany of players the Braves have extended. Still, teams will be hard-pressed to find another starter who possesses Fried's command.

4) Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Age entering free agency: 30
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.56 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 154.1 IP, 150 K, 3.3 WAR

There's no pitcher in baseball with more at stake this season. At his best, Buehler has proven capable of headlining a rotation and handling the most pressure-packed moments with aplomb. In 2018, his 6.2 scoreless innings in a tiebreaker game against the Rockies secured a division title. That October, he bested the Brewers in Game 7 of the NLCS to send the Dodgers to the World Series, where he fired seven scoreless innings in his lone start against the Red Sox. A year later, he allowed just one run in 12.2 innings over two NLDS starts in his first All-Star season. In 2020, Buehler's six scoreless innings in an NLCS elimination Game 6 against the Braves kept the Dodgers' championship season alive.

He continued checking more boxes in 2021, leading the majors with 33 starts and crossing the 200-inning threshold for the first time while going 16-4 with a 2.47 ERA in a second All-Star campaign. But the increased workload, including short rest that postseason, might have caught up to him. He never looked right in 2022, posting a 4.02 ERA in 12 starts before needing a second Tommy John surgery and a flexor tendon repair. As he gets set to turn 30 in July, plenty of suitors will be keeping an eye on his comeback after being out of action since June 2022.

5) Max Scherzer, RHP, Texas Rangers
Age entering free agency: 40
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.85 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 135.2 IP, 149 K, 2.4 WAR

The three-time Cy Young Award winner underwent back surgery to treat a herniated disc in December and will likely start the 2024 season on the injured list. His journey from New York to Texas has been marked mostly by pain. Scherzer battled back from a teres major muscle strain that sidelined him for more than a month late last year in an effort to help the Rangers in the postseason, only to allow seven runs in 9.2 playoff innings. He departed his World Series start when his back locked up after three frames.

Scherzer finished the season with a respectable 3.77 ERA, but it came with diminished whiff and strikeout rates and without the elite command that helped him to a 2.29 ERA the year prior. How much is left in the tank — and how much further does he want to push his limits — as the future Hall of Famer gets set to turn 40 in July?

6) Shane Bieber, RHP, Cleveland Guardians
Age entering free agency: 30
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.52 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 148.1 IP, 151 K, 3.0 WAR

Although not in the exact same boat as Buehler, Bieber has his own questions to answer about his health and how his stuff will play. His market might look a lot different than one would expect from a player who just four years ago was a 25-year-old Cy Young Award winner. Even two years ago, Bieber finished seventh in Cy Young voting while posting a 2.88 ERA and throwing 200 innings. But an extremely inauspicious 2023 season followed. He was hit harder than ever before and failed to generate swings and misses.

In his 2020 Cy Young season, he was averaging 94.1 mph on his four-seamer while whiffing opponents at a 40.7% clip. Last year, he was throwing in the low-90s with an abysmal 24.2% whiff rate. An elbow issue limited him to two starts in the second half, so perhaps a clean bill of health can get him more closely resembling his previous ace form.

THE RELIEVERS

7) Clay Holmes, RHP, New York Yankees
Age entering free agency: 32
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 61 IP, 67 K, 0.4 WAR

Even if none of them end up commanding Edwin Díaz or Josh Hader money, a horde of difference-making relievers will hit the market next winter — and Holmes looks to be the headliner. Though his track record isn't particularly long, and ZiPS is not particularly high on him, few relievers in the sport have been better since he went to New York in 2021. His sinker keeps the ball in the ballpark, he has weapons in his slider and sweeper to attack both lefties and righties, and he just produced the highest strikeout rate of his career. The Yankees might not want to let both Holmes and 29-year-old Jonathan Loaisiga hit free agency, particularly after dealing Michael King. But if they do, expect plenty of interest.

8) Tanner Scott, LHP, Miami Marlins
Age entering free agency: 30
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 66.2 IP, 93 K, 0.9 WAR

He doesn't possess the track record of two other closers on this list, but there were few relievers better than Scott last season. His Statcast page is about as red as it can get. In a breakout year in the Marlins bullpen, Scott cut his walk rate in half and finished the year as baseball's only qualified reliever with a strikeout rate over 33% and a walk rate under 8%. Righties couldn't figure out his slider. Lefties couldn't handle his fastball. His 104 strikeouts trailed only Félix Bautista and Matt Brash for the most among MLB relievers. Another season like that, and he might end up the most coveted reliever on the market.

9) Paul Sewald, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Age entering free agency: 35
2024 ZiPS projections: 3.60 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 55 IP, 66 K, 0.4 WAR

Relievers with a hard-hit rate and a strikeout rate that rank in the league's best 5% don't grow on trees. At 33 years old last year, Sewald's .310 expected slugging percentage was the lowest mark of his career. And while his season ended on a sour note against the Rangers, he was lights-out up until late October, playing an integral role in the Diamondbacks' run to the World Series. Sewald has a track record of success, ranking 10th in the majors in saves since 2021, and could immediately fill in as a team's new closer.

BEST OF THE REST

10) Charlie Morton, RHP, Atlanta Braves/Kenley Jansen, RHP, Boston Red Sox

The 10th spot includes two players in the event Morton decides to hang it up after this year. In the twilight of their careers, both Morton and Jansen are still plenty impactful. At 39 years old last year, Morton got more strikeouts with his curveball than any pitcher in the sport. Jansen, at 35, made his first All-Star team since 2018. Though his strikeout rate dipped and hard-hit rate increased, the Red Sox closer averaged the highest velocity on his cutter (94.3 mph) since 2014. Neither pitcher will command a hefty sum, but they're representative of the breadth of pitching options available next winter.

Also considered: Mets RHP Luis Severino, Giants RHP Alex Cobb, Orioles LHP John Means, Pirates LHP Aroldis Chapman, Braves LHP A.J. Minter, Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta, Tigers RHP Jack Flaherty, Rangers RHP José Leclerc, Guardians RHP Scott Barlow, Astros RHP Kendall Graveman, Blue Jays LHP Yusei Kikuchi

Rowan Kavner covers the Dodgers and MLB as a whole for FOX Sports. He previously was the Dodgers' editor of digital and print publications. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.