Major League Baseball

Juan Soto, Vlad Guerrero Jr. lead this season's .300/.400/.500 candidates

Published Sep. 2, 2021 12:33 p.m. ET

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Allow me to introduce you to one of my favorite arbitrary statistical benchmarks: the .300 AVG/.400 OBP/.500 SLG Club.

This is hardly a perfect science or measure of a great season for a hitter. But there’s something so clean about players who clear it. It’s a square/rectangle situation; not all great seasons are .300/.400/.500 seasons, but all .300/.400/.500 seasons are most certainly great.

What's more, reaching each of these benchmarks — particularly the first two — has become more challenging in recent years as overall offense has declined. For example, there are currently only 12 qualified .300+ hitters in baseball. If that number holds, it’d be the fewest since 1968 (yes, the Year of the Pitcher), when there were only six. There were only 14 .300 hitters in 2018, the second-fewest since 1968.

For context, there were at least 20 .300 hitters in every season from 1990 to 2013, with as many as 55 (!) in 1999.

A look at .400 OBP seasons reveals a similar trend. Not counting the shortened 2020 season, in which there were 11, there has been a double-digit number of .400 OBP qualified hitters only twice since 2007 (2009 and 2017). This after there were at least 10 .400 OBP hitters in every season from 1993 to 2007, again maxing out with 31 in 1999.

The .500+ SLG seasons are admittedly not quite as difficult to come by. Although overall offense has indeed declined, home run rates have remained comfortably high, in turn allowing for higher slugging across the league. In fact, there were 61 qualified hitters with a .500+ SLG% in 2019 — tied with 1999 for the most in MLB history.

There were only 35 heading into the final month this season, but you can still see how much easier it is to clear that benchmark.

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That said, to me it's clear that fulfilling the 3-4-5 statistical trifecta is quite a challenge and worthy of celebration. So who are the candidates to finish this season with the most aesthetically pleasing triple-slash line possible?

It’s a pretty short list. (All numbers through Aug. 31.)

Juan Soto: .298/.442/.508

The collective baseball world seems to have rallied around the understanding that this 22-year-old savant is the best hitter on Earth, and it’s about damn time. Obviously, the .400 OBP won’t be an issue here, but to get to a .300 AVG, Soto is going to have to start getting more pitches to hit! I think he’ll continue to draw walks at a ridiculous rate, but I also think he ultimately will clear .300 and join the club.

Bryce Harper: .306/.420/.594

The NL MVP buzz is growing, even as the Phillies barely hang around the wild-card race. This would be Harper’s second club season, joining his ridiculous .330/.460/.649 campaign in 2015 — when he won the MVP award.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: .313/.406/.602

Earlier in the season, we thought Vlad Jr. might be able to challenge for the Triple Crown. He still has an outside chance, but if he doesn’t get there, this wouldn’t be such a bad consolation prize. If he and Soto both join the club in their age-22 seasons, they’d be just the eighth and ninth players that young to do so in a full major-league season in the Integration Era (since 1947), joining this ridiculous list:

20-year-old Al Kaline in 1955
20-year-old Alex Rodriguez in 1996
21-year-old Eddie Mathews in 1953
21-year-old Albert Pujols in 2001
21-year-old Mike Trout in 2013
22-year-old Bryce Harper in 2015
22-year-old Mickey Mantle in 1954

Jesse Winker: .307/.395/.560

One of the breakout stars of the season, Winker has been on the injured list since Aug. 16. If he can come back strong (and accumulate enough at-bats to qualify), he’s got a great chance.

Here are a few others who have an outside shot to join the club.

Freddie Freeman: .293/.388/.503

This would be Frederick’s third full 3-4-5 season after he pulled it off in 2016 and 2017, and it would be his fourth if you count his shortened NL MVP season in 2020, when he hit .341/.462/.640. This would be especially impressive considering Freeman’s slow start this year. He was hitting .224/.349/.435 on June 9!

Aaron Judge: .296/.386/.538

The Yankees’ season overall has certainly been a roller coaster, but Judge has been consistent all the way through. We might never see a season like his 2017 again, but he’s still tremendous.

Bryan Reynolds: .299/.381/.514

Yeah! Bryan Reynolds! This would take some work in September on the OBP front, but honestly, I’m rooting for Reynolds. It would give Pirates fans something to celebrate during this final stretch, beyond a favorable pick in the 2022 Draft.

Another cool thing about the 3-4-5 benchmark? We can use it as a measure of players at other levels.

With the help of the ultra-handy MiLB leaderboards at FanGraphs, we can search for the prospects having this kind of special season at the plate.

Here are some of the most fun candidates, broken into two groups.

1) Super famous prospects you’ve probably heard of who are living up to the hype:

— SS Anthony Volpe (Yankees): .300/.432/.608 in 437 PA
— OF Zac Veen (Rockies): .306/.402/.519 in 433 PA
— C Adley Rutschman (Orioles): .289/.401/.506 in 432 PA
— 2B Nick Yorke (Red Sox): .329/.417/.520 in 374 PA
— 3B Jordan Walker (Cardinals): .317/.391/.526 in 304 PA
— OF Julio Rodriguez (Mariners): .335/.441/.548 in 263 PA

2) Lesser-known hitters having monster seasons whose names you might want to remember (and draft in your dynasty leagues):

— INF Jose Miranda (Twins): .336/.397/.572 in 473 PA
— OF Matt Fraizer (Pirates): .315/.392/.571 in 442 PA
— 1B Vinnie Pasquantino (Royals): .316/.403/.585 in 437 PA
— 1B/3B Dustin Harris (Rangers): .334/.420/.549 in 400 PA
— OF Joey Wiemer (Brewers): .293/.397/.531 in 395 PA
— INF Jonathan Aranda (Rays): .333/.421/.551 in 368 PA
— SS Josh Smith (Rangers): .311/.423/.549 in 282 PA
— OF Jairo Pomares (Giants): .359/.406/.665 in 276 PA
— 1B/3B Jhonkensy Noel (Indians): .365/.407/.615 in 226 PA

It’s 2021. There is no shortage of ways to measure a hitter’s overall production and understand his value. But I’ve always enjoyed this shorthand way of glancing at a hitter’s stats and seeing those three comforting numbers: .300/.400/.500.

And now, I hope you will, too.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in Maryland but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.