Major League Baseball

5 burning MLB questions: Division series predictions, X-factors, players to watch

Updated Oct. 6, 2023 10:02 p.m. ET

Jordan Shusterman and 3 more

Jordan Shusterman

FOX Sports MLB Analyst

Jake Mintz

FOX Sports MLB Analyst

Four wild-card series, four sweeps. That has the No. 2 seeds in more favorable matchups than the top seeds for the divisional round and reignited questions about re-seeding in the playoffs. It also means some of baseball's hottest teams are squaring off early in the postseason.

FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar, Rowan Kavner, Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz are tackling those topics and more in our weekly roundtable.

Which wild-card winner were you most impressed with?

Jake Mintz: The Diamondbacks. The Phillies were the most definitive, but we didn't learn too many new things about them. But the Snakes? Those boys were ready for the big time. They got a complete, full-team performance. The bullpen was particularly encouraging, too. I think they can give the Dodgers some trouble.

Deesha Thosar: The Phillies looked and played like the strongest team out of the wild-card group. It was complete domination from the first pitch to the last, with little doubt that they wouldn't get it done. Once again, the Phillies' offense looks like a threat, with their ability to get to starting pitching early and their tendency to come up clutch late.

Granted, this dominant wild-card performance came against a weaker Marlins club. But the Phillies have momentum and confidence at the right time. It sure looks like this is a team that goes all the way to the Fall Classic.

Rowan Kavner: After losing their grasp of the division on the final game of the regular season then flying cross-country from Seattle to Tampa Bay, the Rangers totally could have folded against a Rays team that won 99 games this year. Instead, they absolutely pummeled them. Jordan Montgomery looked like an ace. Even more encouraging, so did Nathan Eovaldi, who turned in his best start since dealing with a midseason forearm strain.

Rookies Evan Carter and Josh Jung looked ready for the bright lights. The bullpen is still a concern, but this offense can outscore any team it plays. And if Montgomery and Eovaldi continue pitching the way they did, watch out.

Jordan Shusterman: Arizona, for sure. Between the two road teams that won — an inherently more impressive accomplishment — I thought Arizona overcame more of a fight from Milwaukee compared to the absolute nothing-burger offered by Tampa Bay against Texas.

Credit to the Rangers for winning so comfortably, of course, but the D-backs had to come back in both games and then have a bunch of different relievers all step up to make that sweep happen. Their offensive contributions were also quite balanced up and down the lineup. It was a really strong showing from a team that probably would've given the Phillies more trouble had they stayed in the No. 5 seed they occupied for much of September.

Should MLB re-seed after the wild-card series in the future?

Thosar: Why not?! MLB has already made so many changes to the postseason format over the years that one more, like re-seeding, feels like it would be a welcome addition if only because, as things currently stand, we get a powerhouse matchup like the Phillies versus the Braves as early as the NLDS. That's more like a World Series, and it's unfortunate that one of those two squads — both favorites to go all the way — will be knocked out of the postseason this early. At least have them meet in the NLCS.

Kavner: Yes. Absolutely yes. Want to give the No. 1 seed a real upper hand? After the wild-card series end, let the top team in each league pick which team it gets to face. Win or lose, how much fun would it be if Houston was like, "WE WANT TEXAS!"? The Braves would probably pick the D-backs, and then all of Philadelphia would be talking about how Atlanta was scared. IMAGINE THE STORYLINES. THE INTRIGUE. THE BULLETIN-BOARD MATERIAL. It'll never happen, but that would be my vote.

Shusterman: Nah. I understand the inclination of people to look at how the NL matchups shook out and think the top-seeded Braves got hosed, but who cares? The postseason has never been about what's most fair, it's about entertainment, and anyone complaining about the current bracket can't honestly say with a straight face they'd rather watch Braves-Diamondbacks than the NL East clash for the ages we are about to witness. Also, re-seeding automatically wouldn't even necessarily guarantee the higher seed ending up with the more favorable matchup, as it would appear to this time around, regardless of the regular-season records.

Braves vs Phillies NLDS Preview: Will history repeat itself?

Mintz: A hundred percent they should re-seed. I understand that would make the bracket more complicated with all the various permutations, but we live in a world where the top wild-card team will usually have a better record than the bottom division winner (nowadays, that's the AL or NL central). Maybe I'm just biased because I want Phillies-Braves in a best-of-seven.

Which division series is most likely to go five games? Which is most likely to end in a sweep?

Shusterman: I'll pick Texas-Baltimore to go five. I think it's the best balance of two super talented teams we haven't seen much in October lately and thus the toughest to predict or lean too far in one direction. And despite everything I just praised Arizona for, I still think Dodgers-Diamondbacks is the most likely sweep on the table. I would love to be wrong and see the Snakes stay hot, but they've struggled so much at Dodger Stadium in recent years (7-31 since the start of 2019) that it'll be tough for them to start the series off strong.

Kavner: Please give us five games of Braves-Phillies. Please. That series should be absolutely electric, and we all deserve as much of it as possible. The D-backs had an offense that ranked in baseball's bottom half this year, and considering the aforementioned struggles that their top starters had with the Dodgers' deep lineup, that would seem to be the most likely sweep.

Mintz: Most likely to go five, I'll say Philly-Atlanta. They're just so evenly matched top to bottom. Sweep, I'll say Houston over Minnesota even though I'm picking Minnesota to win. I just can see a scenario where Houston wins the first two at home and then just ends it in three.

Thosar: I'm expecting both Rangers-Orioles and Phillies-Braves going five games given how evenly matched and competitive both of those series figure to be. As far as ending in a sweep? No offense to the Diamondbacks, it really is a good surprise they got this far, but the Dodgers should have this one in the bag.

Who's the player on each team in the series you're about to cover that you're most intrigued by for this round specifically?

Kavner: Bobby Miller for the Dodgers. They need another starter to step up after Clayton Kershaw if they want to make a deep October run. They'll be relying on a bevy of rookie pitchers, none more important than Miller, whose success down the stretch — he had a 3.36 ERA in the season's second half — earned him a Game 2 start. How will the hard-throwing 24-year-old handle his first postseason test?

For the D-backs, the easy answer is Corbin Carroll. He had two hits, including an extra-base hit, in each of Arizona's two wins in the wild-card series. He was 4-for-7 with two homers against Kershaw this year. If the D-backs pull off the upset, he will have played a role. That said, I think my answer is Merrill Kelly: 16 starts against the Dodgers, zero wins. If that changes, it's noteworthy. If it doesn't, that's noteworthy, too, considering he'll probably be starting two games in this series.

Thosar: Since I'm covering Twins-Astros, it's hard not to be intrigued by Carlos Correa returning to Houston after all that he's been through since he left via free agency before the 2022 season. The ankle concerns, the almost-Giants and Mets signings, jumping on Scott Boras in a hotel room, all to wind up with the Twins again and help take them to the playoffs is quite the fascinating journey.

As for the Astros, I'm curious how a 40-year-old Justin Verlander pitches this October and what adjustments he might or might not make to go deep into the playoffs.

Shusterman: For Texas, it has to be star rookie Evan Carter. I'm especially curious about what in the world it's going to take for him to bat higher than ninth. I'm not surprised that veteran manager Bruce Bochy is operating on an ain't-broke-don't-fix-it basis, but if Carter continues to hit like one of Texas' best players, his spot in the order should reflect that.

On Baltimore's side, I'll go with Grayson Rodriguez. His best start of the season — eight scoreless against Tampa Bay on Sept. 16 — was also the outing with the highest stakes, so I'm excited to see if he can rise to the occasion again.

Mintz: For Atlanta, it's Spencer Strider. Last year, he entered the NLDS hurt with diminished velocity and Philly sent him to the shadow realm. This year, he ripped the Phillies' lineup into bits, dominating them in all four of his starts. How will he respond to returning to the scene of the crime? Can't wait to watch. Add to that he's a thoughtful, cerebral dude who's fun to chat with.

For Philly, I'll say Nick Castellanos. He's always doing and saying interesting, offbeat stuff. Whether it's fake flicking off his dugout or showing major clavicle, Casty is a must-watch.

These Astros might look like last year's on paper, but haven't played like it. What concerns do you have about them as it relates to playing the Twins? Who do you predict to win the series?

Thosar: The Twins have the edge in terms of starting pitching ERA, and I'm slightly concerned about the Astros' rotation — even though those arms are battle tested — particularly with the home-run ball. The Twins have power up and down the lineup, and it will be particularly tough for southpaw Framber Valdez to silence all those lefty bats in Minnesota's lineup. I still believe the Astros, 18-5 all-time in the ALDS, will win the series.

How do you anticipate a streaking Orioles pitching staff to fare against the loaded Rangers lineup? Who do you predict to win the series?

Shusterman: As the summer went on and it became clear that the Orioles were indeed a very good baseball team, the common refrain became, "That lineup is young and talented, but do they have the pitching for October?" It was and still is a fair question to some degree, and losing Félix Bautista is a blow for the bullpen for sure. But it's important to recognize that this rotation has really come together down the stretch in an impressive way.

Orioles starters' 3.09 ERA in September ranked third in MLB, and it was an awfully balanced effort with each of Kyle Bradish, Rodriguez, Kyle Gibson and John Means all recording ERAs under 3.00 (Jack Flaherty's three clunkers really dragged down the overall numbers). This group is peaking at the right time, and while the Rangers' offense could give it some trouble, I think Baltimore's depth on the mound is actually much better than Texas' once you get past Montgomery and Eovaldi.

I'm going with the Orioles in four because I don't think you can fluke your way to this kind of dominance in the AL East — they have something special going. If you want to point to the 99-win Rays and 89-win Blue Jays falling flat on their faces a few days ago as evidence that the AL East might not be as great as you think, I hear that. I just don't think this remarkable 2023 Orioles story is over just yet.

Rangers vs. Orioles ALDS Preview: Who will pitch better?

What's the D-backs' blueprint to beating the heavily-favored Dodgers? Who do you predict to win the series?

Kavner: Running. A lot. The D-backs stole the second-most bases in the majors this year. The Dodgers allowed the fifth-most stolen bases. Back in April, Arizona took three of four at home against the Dodgers by stealing a combined eight bases in the three wins.

Of course, the D-backs first have to get on base to do that. But if they can steal Game 1 (no pun intended) at Dodger Stadium against Clayton Kershaw, they'd likely have Zac Gallen available for Game 2 against Miller to close it out, a matchup they'd have to feel good about.

Then again, the Dodgers outscored the D-backs by 25 runs in the season series this year and hit .341 against Gallen, scoring 11 runs in 10 innings versus the Arizona ace. They hit an even better .342 against Game 1 starter Kelly, who is 0-11 with a 5.49 ERA in his career against Los Angeles. I'd be stunned if the Dodgers don't advance.

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks NLDS Preview: Can D-backs create chaos?

What advantages do the Phillies have against a Braves team without any serious flaws? Who do you predict to win the series?

Mintz: It's close, but I think Philly's pitching is better than Atlanta's. No Charlie Morton for the Braves is a big deal, considering they'll have to go with Bryce Elder, who's come back down to Earth since June, in Game 3. Max Fried's blister situation is somewhat troubling because he'd likely be asked to start a Game 5. That gives Zack Wheeler a slight advantage in my eyes, even though Fried is as consistent as it gets.

I also prefer the Phillies' bullpen. The José Alvarado-Jeff Hoffman-Craig Kimbrel trio at the back end has been great, and the late addition of rookie Orion Kerkering gives them a nice boost. That being said, I'll lean Atlanta in 5. I think that lineup is just too damn deep.

This story was compiled by: Deesha Thosar (@DeeshaThosar), Rowan Kavner (@RowanKavner), Jordan Shusterman and Jake Mintz (@CespedesBBQ)