Astros Carlos Correa: Do 2016 Struggles Cloud His Fantasy Value?
Carlos Correa did not quite live up to the expectations many had for him in 2016 for the Astros. But, how do his struggles this season,effect his 2017 fantasy value?
Carlos Correa was widely considered as the best prospect in the game leading up to his promotion in 2015 for the Astros. He did not disappoint either, winning the Rookie of the Year after his dazzling performance in only 99 games. Once drafts came around this spring, Correa was cemented as a first round value, and owners were not afraid to make the investment. But, not everything went smoothly.
In his sophomore season, he posted a, .274/20 HR/96 RBI/13 SB/76 R/.811 OPS line. This is by no means a bad performance, 20 HR/90+ RBI are great from a SS, but his season lacked the dominance that 1st round selections need to have. Consider it his sophomore slump, or what have you, but just how much does these “struggles” cloud his fantasy value?
Owners have to look at his batted ball data to see if there was a glaring area where struggled. His 22% LD rate was identical to 2015, his GB rate did jump to 50%, and his FB rate dipped to 28%. He also went less to the opposite field, dropping below the 30% mark this season.
While it seems as though based on those numbers that he was hitting more GB to the left side, it is not like he did not make his fair share of solid contact in 2016. He dropped his Soft contact rate all the way down to 16%, while maintaining a 46% Medium rate, and raising his Hard contact to 37%. He was hitting the ball harder, yet was not getting the results.
These two sets of stats conflict with each other, so there had to be another factor that prevented him from a full breakout. That one factor turned out to be his inability to handle LHP this season. During his rookie season, he hit lefties to the tune of a .274 AVG, while posting 9 HR/26 RBI. But, in 2016, LHP haunted him.
Over 174 AB against lefties in 2016, he could only muster a .236/5 HR/27 RBI/.730 OPS line. They attacked him with more breaking stuff than in his rookie year, and while he did not see a spike in his chase rate, they did weaken the contact he was able to make.
There is also the issue of the SB drop. While Jose Altuve seemingly runs at will, Correa drastically reduced his running on the basepaths. He was attempting at least five steals a month up until June, when he suffered an ankle injury, but there is no reason why he can not be more aggressive swiping bags. Look for Correa to eclipse the 20 SB mark next season, as the Astros will surely let him maximize every part of his game.
Houston will still sport a solid lineup, and Minute Maid Ballpark is still a hitters haven for right-handed hitters. There will be those owners who will overlook Correa because of his underwhelming 2016, but there is enough in his batted ball data that says that last season was his floor. He will have to remedy his LHP problem, and it will be interesting to see just what he works on this offseason to help.
Carlos Correa is still one of the most talented players in the game. Did he struggle in 2016, yes, but his production in a down season was still excellent. Add the bonus of him qualifying as a SS, and what you have is an excellent fantasy commodity. He is first round talent, that is already falling into the mid second round, do not let that happen. Start targeting Correa in the late first/early second round, and stack your team with two bonafide studs.
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