Major League Baseball

Astros' dynasty is not over, but they need to take a hard look in the mirror

Published Oct. 25, 2023 1:30 p.m. ET

HOUSTON — The Houston Astros' dynasty is not over — far from it, in fact. Not only have they made seven consecutive appearances in the American League Championship Series, but they are just two Game 7 wins away from reaching five straight World Series.

That said, this franchise needs to take a hard look in the mirror if it wants to keep its championship window open for as long as possible.

Texas' seven-game ALCS win over Houston rubs salt in Astros fans' wounds, not just because of the Rangers doing it, but how they did it, dredging up painful memories of the 2019 World Series.

Houston's defeat at the hands of the Washington Nationals four years ago marked the first time in MLB, NBA or NHL history when a team lost a seven-game playoff series by losing all four home games despite winning every game on the road. The 2023 ALCS marked the second time it has happened.

MLB on FOX analyst and frequent "Flippin' Bats" podcast guest John Smoltz reminded me recently that when he was on the broadcast for Game 7 of that 2019 World Series, he told viewers to remember what they had just seen, because it would never happen again — only to be proven wrong four years later by the very same franchise.

Now the question becomes why or how the same team could fail in this way twice in just a five-season span. Regardless, it's embarrassing for this organization to fail so badly at winning in front of its home fans — and not just in the playoffs. The Astros were 39-42 at home this season, a big reason why they won only 90 games despite having the third-best record and top run differential in baseball on the road.

We talked to quite a few Astros fans in our pregame meetup, and not only were their nerves and anxiety high, but none of them were certain the Astros could pull the ALCS out at home. Nobody had an explanation for why this team could not win at home. It's not their job to figure it out, but it's certainly on the Astros, as the issue has now prevented them from winning two more championships.

That might sound like a high standard to hold the organization to. But when you make seven ALCS appearances in a row, it's the standard you've set for yourself.

I have no problem saying this dynasty isn't over. The Astros, after all, are one LCS appearance from tying the 1990s Braves' record of eight in a row.

But here's a suggestion for addressing their struggles at home, which should be one of the offseason's biggest priorities: Tear down that relatively tiny batter's eye in center field and make a bigger one, much closer to what the Rangers have up the road at Globe Life Field.

Next, reload the roster. This is something Houston is the best in baseball at doing. Just look at this past offseason, when the Astros knew they needed to shore up first base and brought in José Abreu, a former MVP who was great this October. It feels like every time this team needs to adapt or grow or be better in a situation, owner Jim Crane and his front office (the top of which has shifted several times over the last five years) do a great job of reloading.

The biggest roster hole that needs to be addressed this offseason is in the starting rotation. Yes, the Astros got Justin Verlander back from the Mets at the trade deadline, but they need to add more this winter. I have no doubts they will do just that.

The Astros might also need a new manager if the report of Dusty Baker retiring is true. Bench coach Joe Espada is well-regarded and has been rumored as a managerial candidate for years, but I have no idea what is going to happen in that regard.

The good news for the Astros in this crucial offseason is that they do not lose many pieces, certainly none from their core of Verlander, Framber Valdez, José Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and, of course, Yordan Álvarez. Those guys are all staying. That's a big reason why I am not betting against this team in 2024.

However, this team cannot rely much on its minor-league depth to reload — there are currently zero top-100 prospects in their organization, a stark departure from the loaded farm systems of the past. That is how the Astros built this dynasty in the first place — from within. Now, they are unable to do so, which is usually one of the first signs of a closing championship window.

I don't know how long the window will last. It could be one more year, or it could be five. But we are starting to get the sense that it is closing.

Regardless, I'm excited to see what Houston does this offseason. As everyone in that organization knows, this ALCS was a downright embarrassing showing. But I believe the Astros will be back.

Ben Verlander is an MLB Analyst for FOX Sports and the host of the "Flippin' Bats" podcast. Born and raised in Richmond, Virginia, Verlander was an All-American at Old Dominion University before he joined his brother, Justin, in Detroit as a 14th-round pick of the Tigers in 2013. He spent five years in the Tigers organization. Follow him on Twitter @BenVerlander.

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