Major League Baseball

Astros find a hero in Framber Valdez as Red Sox lose control of unpredictable ALCS

Updated Oct. 21, 2021 12:01 p.m. ET

By Jordan Shusterman
FOX Sports MLB Writer

Be honest: After Game 3, did you think we’d be seeing another ALCS game in Houston this week, let alone one in which the Astros are the team one win away from the World Series?

Forty-eight hours ago, the Boston Red Sox felt like a runaway train. Their emphatic victory in Game 2 had snatched home-field advantage away from Houston as the series flipped back to Beantown. The off-day on Sunday seemingly did nothing to slow down the momentum, as Boston promptly went up 9-0 early in Game 3, just as it did in Game 2.

Leads of 9-0 are not supposed to be built so quickly and casually, let alone in the postseason, but this Boston offense did not seem to care for precedent. It went back to its trusty playbook from Game 2 and once again ran the highly effective "grand slam" play, this time with Kyle Schwarber at the center of the action:

It wasn’t just that the Red Sox's offense looked unstoppable. It was that the Houston pitchers seemed completely overmatched, with no obvious antidote available anytime soon. It felt like no matter whom they rolled out there, he was bound to be walking off the mound earlier than planned to the delight of the Fenway crowd.

But an exaggerated run differential has no impact on the size of a series lead, and so Boston went into Game 4 with a modest 2-1 lead, even if it felt like 200-1 and another trip to the Fall Classic seemed imminent.

When Alex Bregman homered off Nick Pivetta in the top of the first, it was a good reminder of how quickly the Astros might be able to flush Games 2 and 3. But Boston came ready to hit, too, and Xander Bogaerts stuck right back in the bottom half.

Then, for the next six innings, a welcome sight: a close, competitive baseball game. After back-to-back blowouts, the tension of the one-run game was even greater than normal. The Red Sox had grown so comfortable with these monstrous leads that holding a one-run lead felt like an impossible task. Jose Altuve, as he has time and time again in his postseason career, made sure that was exactly the case:

Still a tie game, though! Things were tied going to the ninth ... and then all hell broke loose. It was certainly not Laz Diaz’s best night behind the dish, and Nathan Eovaldi did not get a call on a high curveball to Jason Castro, allowing Castro to deliver the go-ahead RBI:

The floodgates opened after that, with Houston piling on an additional six runs to achieve a final tally — 9-2 Astros — that failed to encapsulate how close the game was for eight innings. Series tied.

And so Game 5 arrived with more expectations of fireworks at the plate from both teams. On reputation, you might've expected a pitching duel between Chris Sale and Framber Valdez. Based on how they’ve looked recently, though, it seemed we’d be in for another shootout. Instead, we were treated to one of the best pitching performances of the entire postseason courtesy of Valdez:

Besides Rafael Devers, who tagged Valdez for a huge solo homer in the seventh and a single with a 113.7 mph exit velocity in the fifth, the seemingly unstoppable force that Boston’s offense has been all postseason was confidently tamed by the 27-year-old southpaw. This tremendous outing stood out even more in the larger context of starting pitching this October, as bullpen games have become all too familiar and starters have been pulled earlier than ever.

Valdez is a unique pitcher who relies heavily on a mid-90s sinker and a high-spin curveball to produce an outrageous amount of ground balls, rather than whiffs. In fact, his 70.3% ground-ball rate during the regular season was the highest on record for a starting pitcher.

Game 5 was no different: Fifteen of his 24 outs were recorded on the ground, including two double plays. He was masterful from start to finish, and Dusty Baker let him ride nearly all night, even as the Astros’ lead continued to widen.

It’s worth mentioning that Yordan Alvarez carried Houston's offense Wednesday, but an Astros hitter putting on a one-man show is always more a matter of "who" than "if." They have so many good hitters that at least one is always going to show up. On the pitching side, however, with Lance McCullers Jr. out, it was becoming very difficult to imagine any Astros starter delivering a performance like the one we saw from Valdez — and that’s why this win is all about him.

Undeniably, it has been a difficult couple of games for Boston, but the Red Sox can take solace in two facts: 1) They’ll have their ace, Eovaldi, on the mound for Game 6 on Friday. 2) The last time the Astros returned to Houston with a 3-2 series lead was the 2019 World Series ... and we all know what happened then.

But if we’ve learned anything from this series so far, it’s that we know nothing. Whatever you’re feeling about the ALCS right now, recognize that it might become moot faster than you can say "Framber." Such is the beauty of the MLB postseason.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He lives in D.C. but is a huge Seattle Mariners fan and loves watching the KBO, which means he doesn't get a lot of sleep. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.