Astros offseason primer: 5 burning questions, including how aggressively will they reload?
Reaching Game 7 of the League Championship Series would be considered a smashing success of a season for most franchises. The Houston Astros, who have made trips to the ALCS an annual tradition for the better part of a decade, are not most franchises.
For them, losing before the World Series this past October — to their in-state rivals, no less — was an especially tough pill to swallow. As a result, they entered this offseason in unfamiliar territory in that for the first time in this era of Astros excellence, Houston no longer stands out as the obvious default favorite in the AL West. The champion Texas Rangers have surged right up alongside the Astros — if not clear on past them — in the divisional hierarchy.
That's not to say Houston's roster, even as currently constituted, still doesn't stack up well. It's still a great team. But there is work to do, and the competition is fiercer than ever. Here are the five biggest questions for the Astros this winter:
1. What kind of general manager is Dana Brown?
Recall that the Astros spent the bulk of last winter without a traditional exec heading their front office, having parted ways with GM James Click shortly after raising the 2022 World Series trophy. Brown wasn't hired until late January, by which point the bulk of Houston's offseason business had already been handled. After a full season at the helm taking stock in the roster and organizational depth, Brown now has a full offseason of opportunity to make decisions and pursue transactions that fit his broader vision for the Astros.
What does that look like, though? Is it trading further from a relatively weak farm system à la the Justin Verlander deal this past summer? Will Brown pursue big-name free agents? The Astros haven't been nearly as aggressive at the top of the market as Texas recently, but it's not like they've been pinching pennies either. Their ultimate spending power will be dictated by ownership, of course, but it's Brown's job to determine which parts of the roster are most ripe for improvement. With a rejuvenated rivalry with the Rangers in full force and a crowded AL playoff picture beyond that, the pressure is on Brown to supplement this roster sufficiently to compete for not just another division title but World Series appearance and championship. That's the standard in H-Town.
2. How realistic are extensions for José Altuve and/or Alex Bregman?
The only two players to be involved in every single one Houston's seven consecutive journeys to the ALCS, Bregman and Altuve, are the last players on this roster you could ever fathom wearing another uniform. Brown himself acknowledged as much this past spring training, stating that both should be "Houston for life." And yet, baseball is a business — especially when both players are represented by Scott Boras — meaning here we sit, less than a year from both Bregman and Altuve reaching free agency as two of the best available bats on the open market. Yes, Boras clients have a substantial track record of eschewing extension offers in favor of testing the open market. But wait: Didn't Bregman and Altuve both sign extensions with Houston earlier in their careers? Indeed they did, with Altuve signing a $151 million pact before the 2018 season and Bregman agreeing to a $100 million extension before 2019, each deal keeping them in Houston through 2024. Boras negotiated the Altuve deal (see, it is possible!), but not the Bregman one — Bregman switched agencies to Boras in 2020.
These are relevant factors to consider, but it's also crucial to remember that Houston will be viewing this as a business decision. As much loyalty as we want to ascribe to these situations, the Astros will likely need to determine which of these players is the more realistic — and vital — player to retain for the long haul. I'd assume the answer is the 33-year-old Altuve considering his age and elevated status in franchise history, but the 29-year-old Bregman might be the superior bet to provide value deep into the next contract. Deals of this magnitude are challenging in any context, but the emotional weight tied to both of these players' connections to the franchise will make the negotiations all the more difficult — if they even reach free agency. With very few obvious parts of the roster in need of dire upgrading, securing at least one extension between these two could make this winter a win for Houston on its own. It won't be easy, though.
3. What is a reasonable way to address the bullpen?
With Hector Neris, Ryne Stanek and Phil Maton all hitting free agency this winter, that's a whole bunch of innings in the late stages of games that Houston will need to cover moving forward with some potentially unfamiliar faces. There's no need to fret too much — Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are still two of the best bullpen arms in the league — but getting the ball to Abreu in the eighth inning with a lead could prove more challenging if the Astros don't bolster this relief corps whatsoever. However, what they almost certainly shouldn't do is a repeat of last year's three-year, $34.5 million commitment to Rafael Montero, whose ERA more than doubled from 2022 in the first year of his new deal. More appropriate would be the pursuit of a veteran coming off a strong year seeking a sizable one-year pact; Adam Ottavino, Ryan Brasier and Jake Diekman come to mind as appealing options that could inject some certainty into this unit. Well, as much certainty as a reliever can give you, anyway.
4. What is the ideal Astros rotation by the end of 2024?
This might not seem like an offseason question, but I am fascinated to see if there are any moves made this winter that help clarify what looks to be a packed starting staff moving forward. On paper, the Astros' rotation looks about as set as any across the league. They have five returning pitchers who made at least 23 starts in 2023: Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and J.P. France, all of whom proved worthy of a spot even with the unexpected struggles of Javier and the rookie-related bumps in the road endured by Brown.
The familiar face of Jose Urquidy remains, and another reliable righty in Brandon Bielak emerged as a capable starter in 2023, as well. So, then, what should we make of the pending returns of rotation staples Lance McCullers and Luis Garcia, who are expected back from their respective elbow surgeries at some point in the second half of 2024? I do wonder how Houston's brass are envisioning the rotation shaking out — not just for Opening Day but as the season progresses — and if the current depth encourages them to use one or two of these arms as an internal solution to bolster the thinned-out bullpen, or as a trade chip to address other parts of the roster.
5. What is the most likely position to upgrade offensively?
Though Houston has yet to make any external additions thus far, there is one thing that appears certain regarding the 2024 roster: The Martin Maldonado era looks to be over in Houston, with Brown stating at the outset of the offseason that 25-year-old catcher Yainer Díaz will be "the guy" moving forward behind the plate. The veteran backstop was clearly preferred by manager Dusty Baker to get the lion's share of the reps behind the dish despite his putrid offensive production, and it was a defensible decision considering the makeup of the roster and how much the pitching staff entrusted Maldonado. Now, it seems Brown and new manager Joe Espada are ready to turn the page and let Diaz take control, which seems plenty wise as Maldonado, who turns 38 next August, enters free agency.
A full share of Díaz at-bats in place of Maldonado should make a real difference on its own. Beyond that, where else might Houston seek to upgrade? José Abreu underwhelmed in his first year as an Astro, but his contract likely keeps him entrenched with consistent 1B/DH at-bats. The two non-Kyle Tucker outfield spots would seem to be the place to look. Will Chas McCormick — who hit quite well when given the opportunity — get everyday at-bats that he strangely never quite got with Baker at the helm? How much can we reasonably still expect Yordan Álvarez to play left field versus DH? Is Mauricio Dubon an everyday center fielder or a premium bench bat? Answers to these questions will help determine how aggressive Houston will likely be in pursuing another hitter externally — though this isn't exactly the deepest class of free-agent bats.
Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.
