Major League Baseball

Astros or Twins? Can Orioles rally versus Rangers? 5 burning ALDS questions

Updated Oct. 10, 2023 1:21 p.m. ET

Neither American League Division Series has gone as expected through two games. One underdog is a win away from a sweep. The other has been even with, if not outplayed the defending world champions. Both lower seeds are headed home.

With the Twins set to host the Astros (FOX, 4:07 p.m. ET) and the Rangers hosting the Orioles (FOX, 8:03 p.m. ET) in a pair of crucial Game 3s on Tuesday, FOX MLB writers Deesha Thosar and Jordan Shusterman assessed the most important developments thus far in the ALDS and what might be to come.

Who is in whose head more: Carlos Correa in the Astros' or Yordan Álvarez in the Twins'?

Thosar: Correa is definitely more in the Astros' heads. They know firsthand what a force Correa is in October and how much he can impact the game with his hypercompetitive attitude. Beyond Correa's makeup, though, the shortstop also knows what makes his old team tick and he's keen to reveal those trade secrets to his new club.

Yes, Álvarez has crushed three home runs in two games, including one against a Minnesota left-hander. But Twins ace Pablo López was able to figure Álvarez out, retiring him in all three of their encounters Sunday. The Twins are approaching this series like every top Astros hitter is a legitimate threat; Álvarez isn't being singled out in that clubhouse.

The Rangers are now World Series favorites. Does that track with what you've seen thus far in the postseason?

Shusterman: It's tough to argue with one of just two undefeated teams left in the postseason, but I also think it's way too early to declare them the favorites. Even with the surprisingly solid bullpen performance and relentless offensive production, I still have far more questions about how this team is going to get enough outs as the level of competition continues to rise, especially against either of the teams they'd hypothetically face in the ALCS — let alone what we've seen from the remaining NL teams not named the Dodgers. The Rangers have proven a lot in these four games. Let's give it a few more.

How surprised are you that the Twins outscored the Astros over the first two games in Houston?

Thosar: I'm not particularly surprised that the Twins have outscored the Astros for a couple of reasons. One, it's possible Houston's bats are on the colder side after their bye week during the wild-card round. And two, the Astros' pitching staff has been all over the place to start this series.

Though Justin Verlander was able to shut down the Twins despite his subpar mechanics, Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis feasted off reliever Hector Neris. Then, Framber Valdez didn't have his best stuff and ran into a red-hot Correa. The Twins have been excellent at creating traffic on the basepaths and their power, though not as prolific as the Bomba Squad of 2019, is still a major factor in their offensive aptitude.

After a game 2 loss, do the Houston Astros have a Carlos Correa problem?

How do you think the Orioles staff will try to attack this Rangers lineup moving forward?

Shusterman: The Orioles have no chance if they keep offering free trips to first base, as they have to a concerning degree over the first two games (16 walks allowed). More specifically, Baltimore needs to decide if it wants to continue pitching around Corey Seager (who has seven walks in two games).

Seager is especially dangerous at home, so I could see an argument for continuing to avoid him. If they do choose to attack him, it's just a matter of throwing quality strikes — this isn't a Juan Soto situation where Seager is up there just to take as many close pitches as possible. The dude wants to swing the bat; no qualified hitter in baseball swung at a higher percentage of pitches in the zone than Seager this season. That's both a demonstration of how ridiculously good his approach is but also a potential opportunity to get him out with the right pitches rather than just sending him to first base over and over and hoping the guys behind him don't drive him in as they have thus far.

On the other hand, it might just be easier to more effectively attack the hitters behind him. As good as they are, Mitch Garver, Adolis Garcia and even rookie sensation Evan Carter will all whiff a good amount at the right pitches. Walks aren't just bad for preventing runs, they are also especially deflating for the dugout that will need as much positive energy as possible to come back down 2-0. Throwing strikes to this team is terrifying, but they gotta do it if they wanna have a chance.

Texas Rangers just one win away from reaching the ALCS

Who's the X-factor right now for the Twins and Astros?

Thosar: For the Twins, it's Sonny Gray. And for the Astros, it's José Altuve. After Gray's five shutout innings against the Blue Jays in Game 2 of the wild-card series, I'm expecting a huge postseason performance from the veteran in Tuesday's Game 3. Plus, it's not like this is Gray's first rodeo. He owns a 2.32 ERA across five career playoff starts. We just saw how dominant the Twins are when they have a solid starter on the mound.

For Houston, Álvarez has rightly grabbed all the headlines for his clutch dingers, but Altuve continues to be the consistent cog and leadoff spark plug in the lineup. His first-inning home run in Game 1 provided a momentum shift and relief to Verlander, who acknowledged Altuve's solo shot gave him breathing room. Altuve can impact the game in more ways than one, just like his good friend and former teammate, Correa.

Who's the X-factor right now for the Rangers, Orioles?

Shusterman: Game 3 starter Dean Kremer will need to do whatever he can to avoid replicating what happened to Grayson Rodriguez in Game 2. I'm intrigued by the choice to roll with Kremer in his postseason debut over a veteran like Kyle Gibson who threw especially well in September, and hope Kremer can avoid the game speeding up on him too much and eat a few more innings to give the Orioles a chance to steal some momentum back amidst what is sure to be a rowdy Texas crowd. On offense, I'm still looking at Cedric Mullins to find his stride amidst a difficult last few months — at 0-for-8 with 3 K's, he's the lone Oriole starter without a hit so far this series.

For Texas, I'll go with everyone's new favorite piggyback pair in Andrew Heaney and Dane Dunning. It's possible Nathan Eovaldi dominates Game 3 and we don't even see them again this series, but it's clear these two are going to remain crucial in Texas' ambitions of advancing further this month. They've shown quite well so far, but these assignments aren't going to get any easier.

After being at Minute Maid Park this past weekend, what are you expecting to happen with the two games at Target Field?

Thosar: I'm expecting the Twins to feed off their fan base and the rowdy, hostile environment that will be Target Field. Minnesota skipper Rocco Baldelli echoed my thoughts in that Minute Maid Park, even with the roof closed in Game 1, just didn't get decibel-shattering the way Target Field did for the wild-card round. So, home-field advantage, paired with the expectations of Gray to shove, should deliver the Twins another win. Game 4 appears more up for grabs, with the Twins' Joe Ryan (11-10, 4.51 ERA) likely going up against Astros righty José Urquidy (3-3, 5.29 ERA), though Houston has not officially announced its starter. Verlander would be ready and waiting for a potential Game 5, so the Twins know they're best served closing this thing out before it goes back to Houston.

What's your best guess as to how the series plays out in Texas?

Shusterman: I feel like either it's coming back to Baltimore for a coin-flip of a Game 5 or it's ending on Tuesday night in a sweep. If Eovaldi looks like the rejuvenated October ace version of himself that he did versus Tampa Bay last round, I lean heavily toward the latter.

Highers seeds are now 2-6 in the LDS, despite all those games being played in their respective home ballparks. Do you believe there's a meaningful correlation between their performances and last week's five-day layoff?

Thosar: The only meaningful parallel here is that the division winners with the bye week might be rusty at the plate because of the layoff. It makes sense, after players are used to hitting every day in the regular season, that a sudden, prolonged rest period will lead to a slow start on offense. But that impact shouldn't last more than one, maybe two games.

These offenses won their divisions and got to the postseason by being the cream of the crop. If hitters are continuously pressing at the plate, whiffing, and fizzling out when it matters most, that says more about the true strength and longevity of a given team's lineup rather than their five days off.

Shusterman: Five days does feel like a long time to sit after six months of playing nearly every day. But I would need to see years and years more data on this to be meaningfully convinced that any team would legitimately rather play an additional round and risk elimination than sit at home for five days and wait for their opponent. Sorry to the Dodgers and Orioles, but how do you think Tampa Bay and Milwaukee are feeling right now?

I am receptive to the idea that the format should reward teams who won the most games — incentivizing maximum effort during the regular season is an important element of maintaining an interesting and competitive summer of baseball. At the same time, the postseason has never been about what's fair or automatically crowning the "best" teams. Recent history has given us both outcomes, anyway — "lesser" teams that get scorching hot like the 2021 Braves and juggernaut behemoths who get the job done like the 2022 Astros. We're here to be entertained, and I'm perplexed by the inclination of many to squash the possibilities of upsets; upsets are what make sports great!

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.

Jordan Shusterman is half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball writer for FOX Sports. He has covered baseball for his entire adult life, most notably for MLB.com, DAZN and The Ringer. He's a Mariners fan living in the Eastern Time Zone, which means he loves a good 10 p.m. first pitch. You can follow him on Twitter @j_shusterman_.