Atlanta Braves: Is 2017 a make-or-break year for trio of young pitchers?
May 31, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Matt Wisler (37) reacts in the dugout after being removed in the eighth inning against the San Francisco Giants at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Everybody loves potential. Eventually, though, it has to turn into results. Is this a make or break year for Atlanta’s young pitching?
The Atlanta Braves used a league-high 16 different starting pitchers last season. While a whopping 10 of those have found new homes, not all of the remaining six are guaranteed to be a part of the team’s future.
Of that six, Julio Teheran seems like a good bet to retain his role as staff ace, Josh Collmenter projects to be a solid swingman, and Joel De La Cruz may or may not see some low-leverage innings at some point during the season.
Meanwhile, the other three – Matt Wisler, Mike Foltynewicz, and Aaron Blair – have far less clarity and much more at stake in 2017.
The Trio So Far
The group of young, high-upside arms arrived in Atlanta via three different trades during the team’s recent fire sale:
Each of them is also a veteran of top prospect lists, saw extended time in the majors last season, and failed to pitch his way into a guaranteed rotation spot for 2017.
Foltynewicz debuted for the Astros back in 2014, pitching exclusively out of the pen. Though after joining the Braves organization, he has been used primarily as a starter. Over the past two seasons he’s appeared in 40 games (37 starts) and sported strong peripheral stats (8.06 K/9, 2.74 BB/9).
Unfortunately, he’s struggled to keep the ball in the yard (1.50 HR/9) and proven prone to blowouts (he’s allowed five or more earned runs in 11 of his 37 career starts). He will pitch all of next season at age 25.
Wisler debuted in 2015 and has spent more time than the others as a regular member of the rotation. He made 19 starts in his rookie season (109 IP) and bumped that up to 26 in 2016 (156.2 IP). In both seasons he made a single relief appearance.
To date, he sports a career earned run average of 4.88 (ninth worst among active pitchers, min. 250 IP). He will pitch all of next season at age 24.
Blair just made his debut in April of 2016. He spent the first two months of big league career as a regular member of the rotation but got absolutely pounded over 11 starts (0-5, 7.99 ERA, 5.15 K/9, 5.15 BB/9). After a lengthy stint in the minors, he returned to make four more starts down the stretch.
While there was a hint of improvement towards the end of the season, it would have been difficult for him to pitch much worse than his first half. He did end the year with an excellent outing against the Tigers (6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 10 K). He will turn 25 in May of 2017.
That’s what they’ve done so far but what does next season hold for these three young hurlers?
Jul 21, 2016; Denver, CO, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz (26) on the mound following giving up a three run home run to Colorado Rockies right fielder Carlos Gonzalez (5) (background ) in the sixth inning at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Pecking Order
Of the group, Foltynewicz has done the most to ensure his place in Atlanta’s long-term future. While his overall numbers don’t jump off the page, he has shown the ability to be dominant when his full repertoire is firing on all cylinders.
He provided key innings during Atlanta’s second-half hot streak and has actually demonstrated the best control of the trio (at least at the major league level). He has to be considered the early favorite to secure the fifth rotation spot behind Teheran, Colon, Dickey, and Garcia.
Wisler would figure to be the next man up. He has the superior big league results and an additional year of experience. While his performance with Atlanta has certainly provided some doubts about his ability to compete at the highest level, he did showcase better control and fared a bit better with damage control than Blair.
Finally, despite ending the year with a stellar performance (against a Detroit team battling for their playoff lives, no less), Blair brings up the rear. That isn’t necessarily a knock against his long-term outlook. The burly righty out of Marshall just has a shorter track record of success in the majors.
Roadblocks
At least for the upcoming season, the organization has shown a reluctance to allow those young pitchers to shoulder the bulk of the workload.
They’ve already added a pair of former Cy Young winners (R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon), traded for a third veteran starter (Jaime Garcia), and continue to be linked to high-profile names like Chris Archer. Those current (and potential) additions will, by necessity, cut into the number of available starts for Atlanta’s stable of young arms.
Of course, it’s important to note that these will not be permanent roadblocks. Dickey, Colon, and Garcia are all on one-year commitments. It isn’t as though the team went out and acquired three pitchers who project to remain with the team long-term. There’s still a path for all of team’s experienced youngsters to spend ample time in Atlanta (more on that in a bit). However, at least for the time being, John Coppolella and company have made that path rockier.
Next Wave On Their Heels
While the newly-added vets may provide the most salient threat to the starting hopes of Folty/Wisler/Blair, another, perhaps more serious threat awaits them.
During the aforementioned fire sale, Atlanta acquired more than just the trio we’ve been harping on so far.
That doesn’t even mention Lucas Sims, the longest-tenured top Braves prospect, who may finally be ready to reach the majors in 2017.
In Atlanta’s deep system, there are plenty of others who will hopefully challenge for a rotation spot down the line (Kolby Allard, Mike Soroka, Ian Anderson, Kyle Muller, Joey Wentz, etc.) but they are far enough away to not pose an imminent threat to last year’s big league holdovers.
May 28, 2016; Atlanta, GA, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Aaron Blair (36) leaves the field after retiring the side against the Miami Marlins during the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Last Chance at a Good Impression
Unfortunately for Foltynewicz, Wisler, and Blair, their inability to capitalize on their time in the majors thus far may come back to haunt them. They’ve now been given a very small window to prove their worth.
Dickey, Colon, and Garcia will likely claim many of the available starting opportunities this season while fresh blood like Newcomb, Fried, Toussaint, and Sims will push for those same opportunities in 2018.
Whoever claims the fifth starter role out of spring training (in what what will be at least a five-way battle with our trio plus Collmenter and John Danks) could be pitching not only for his fate in 2017 but his overall future with the club.
While opportunities to make spot starts and showcase one’s talents were plentiful last season (see: 16 different starting pitchers), there’s no guarantee that that trend will carryover into 2017. The addition of two workhorses (Dickey and Colon) and a guy who made 30 starts in 2016 (Garcia) make it unlikely.
Silver Lining
If there’s a glimmer of hope for the our young pitchers, it’s that Atlanta has made purging the roster an annual tradition.
If any of the team’s veteran additions pitch well, they’ll be virtual locks to end up the trading block. While the Braves could benefit from having seasoned professionals mentor their budding pitchers, they’ll probably part with any of the three if a contender comes knocking.
Also, even if they were to resist the urge to trade their vets, it’s practically unheard of to have a full rotation’s worth of pitchers make it through the season unscathed. The looming threat of injuries and ineffectiveness is a constant. There may not be as many spot start opportunities but there will almost certainly be some.
Further, many of the prime competitors for those opportunities (Rob Whalen, John Gant, Williams Perez, and Tyrell Jenkins) are no longer with the team. When those openings arrive, Foltynewicz, Wisler, and Blair will have the first chance.
More from Tomahawk Take
Only Time Will Tell
So, what does any of this even mean?
It means that the Braves currently employ at least three pitchers who, despite their respective struggles, still possess tremendous talent and who could each become a contributor at the big league level. It also means that those three pitchers have a lot to prove in the coming season.
When Atlanta was in the tear-down/bottoming out stage of their rebuild, players were allowed to work through poor performance and attempt to right the ship. As they gradually move towards contention, the opportunities to play through rough patches will begin to dry up, especially for unestablished players.
That may be abrupt and harsh, especially for a guy like Blair – whose 70 big league innings are hardly enough to draw any meaningful conclusions. On some level, though, it’s just the nature of the beast. The team invested heavily in pitching as part of their talent-acquisition efforts. Now, it’s time to separate the wheat from the chaff.
I’m rooting for all three – Foltynewicz, Wisler, and Blair. They’ve experienced varying levels of success but each shown at least flashes of promise. However, if they don’t deliver on that promise in 2017, after its inaugural season, they may only appear in SunTrust Park as visitors.
