Beat the Atlanta Braves now ... or never?
All the buzz surrounding the 2023 Atlanta Braves is valid: They might be one of the best baseball teams of all time.
Ronald Acuña Jr. recently became the first player in MLB history to crush 40 home runs and swipe at least 50 bags (and probably 70). Spencer Strider owns the highest single-season strikeout rate of all time and the second-best WHIP in the majors this year. Matt Olson comfortably leads the big leagues with 53 home runs and 134 RBIs. Atlanta is on the precipice of being the first team to ever slug over .500 for a season, and its pitching staff tops the National League in strikeouts.
That's how you clinch a playoff spot in early September and earn the best record in the game.
While the Braves have looked strong — really, much better than everyone — all summer, they quietly suffered a couple of blows this past week: Veteran right-hander Charlie Morton will miss the NL Division Series with a sprained right index finger, while southpaw ace Max Fried is also dealing with a recurring blister issue that has him on the injured list.
In a repeat of last season, the Braves will enter the playoffs with a compromised rotation. And, just like in 2022, it won't matter much if they win all year long only to bow out early in the postseason. Suddenly, the club that just clinched its sixth consecutive division title and second straight 100-win campaign looks vulnerable in a shorter playoff series. Baseball can be cruel like that.
While Fried is expected to be back for the NLDS, the best-case scenario for the 39-year-old Morton is he'll be available in the NLCS. The Braves, of course, will have to get there first, a challenge they were unable to overcome in 2022.
Around this time last season, Fried dealt with an awful virus that caused him to lose 15 pounds between his last regular-season outing and his NLDS Game 1 start against the Phillies. Strider, then in his rookie year, sustained an oblique strain last September and, though not fully recovered, started Game 3 against the Phillies. Down 2-1 in the series, it was up to Morton to send Atlanta to a pivotal Game 5. But Morton allowed three earned runs in two innings to the potent Phillies as the 101-win Braves crumbled in Game 4 and were eliminated from the postseason.
So much for a title defense. The 1998-2000 Yankees remain the most recent franchise to win the World Series in back-to-back years.
Once again, Atlanta is on track to face Philly in the best-of-five NLDS, which begins Oct. 7. The Phillies first have to get through next week's wild-card round, where they will host a less talented opponent (likely either the Diamondbacks, Cubs or Marlins) after clinching the NL's No. 4 seed Tuesday. In either of those scenarios, the Phillies will be favored to advance and take on the Braves, who will have been waiting — and perhaps even cooling off.
Last year, the Braves won the NL East before resting for nearly a week and waiting for the wild-card series to conclude. It certainly seemed like that week off was detrimental to the once-dominant offense that scored the third-most runs in 2022. The menacing Phillies outscored the Braves 24-13 in the NLDS and, at the time, they weren't even viewed as Atlanta's biggest threat. That label belonged to the Dodgers. This year, the Phillies are believed to be the thorn in Atlanta's side — not just because of last year's playoff meeting, but also because they're more formidable than they were while winning the NL pennant.
Moreover, legitimate doubts surround Atlanta's rotation strength heading into the NLDS.
Fried's blister could be resolved in these next couple of weeks, but keep your eye out for the possibility of the issue resurfacing in between playoff starts. Game 2 will probably belong to Strider, who has already blown past his previous career high in innings pitched, albeit in a spectacular, strikeout-heavy season. Last year, Strider gave up five earned runs in 2.1 innings against the Phillies in his lone postseason start. The 24-year-old has much to prove this October, and he's set up to be Atlanta's Game 5 starter should the series stretch to that point. But it would be in the Braves' best interests to wrap up the NLDS in four games to avoid the season resting on Strider's worn shoulders — on short rest.
Now, Atlanta has more depth in its rotation than it did last October, even with Morton's injury. But this is a group that is currently scuffling. Kyle Wright has a 9.90 ERA in three September appearances since finally returning from lingering shoulder issues. He's already been relegated to the bullpen and isn't likely to get a postseason start.
With Morton out, Bryce Elder will likely start Game 3. He was one of baseball's best pitchers in the first half but has a 5.49 ERA since July. The second-year right-hander has been roughed up in each of his past three starts, the last of which being Tuesday as Atlanta fell behind 6-0 before rallying to beat a Cubs team fighting for its playoff life. Elder's previous start came against the Phillies and lasted just 3.2 innings after Nick Castellanos tagged him for two home runs. Philadelphia got a fresh, good look at Elder and should feel confident facing him in a postseason setting.
This is a Phillies offense, mind you, that ranks second in OPS and home runs since Aug. 1 (behind the Braves in both categories). While Atlanta doesn't have a true weakness on paper, its starters have a 4.46 ERA versus Philly this year and 4.25 against everyone else. (The Braves' bullpen has been better versus the Phils — 3.47-3.84 — but it's not the most intimidating bunch.)
Really, the Phillies should be encouraged, borderline feasting, at the idea of facing this ailing pitching staff sooner rather than later. The best time to beat the Braves is in the NLDS anyway, when only three wins are needed to eliminate them. Atlanta will likely only get stronger in the NLCS with a fully healed Morton, a potentially blister-less Fried and a Strider with more playoff experience.
This Braves juggernaut has been virtually slump-proof, never losing more than four straight games all season. So, forgive me for being skeptical of any one team beating Atlanta four times in one week.
The Braves haven’t so much as tripped in their 2023 journey to a title. But there now lie some potential divots on their title path — and their biggest challenge all year could be right around the corner.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
