Braves: Mike Foltynewicz Potential 2017 Fantasy Breakout
Mike Foltynewicz is one of the many talented arms that the Braves have stockpiled. But, could 2017 be the year he breaks out?
The Braves have clearly spent the last few seasons in a rebuilding mode and that has yielded them their fair share of interesting prospects. One of the most intriguing players they acquired was Mike Foltynewicz. The young RHP has been lauded for his arm talent since he was drafted in the 1st round by the Astros in 2010. He was traded to Atlanta in 2014 in the Evan Gattis deal, but could this upcoming season finally be his time to shine?
Foltynewicz entered the league with some serious hype because of his velocity. He quickly rose the ranks of top prospect lists before debuting with Houston in 2014. His first two stints in the majors were rocky, to say the least. He posted a 5.30 ERA over 18 innings with the Astros and followed that with a 5.71 ERA with Atlanta over 86 innings in 2015.
But, he started to turn a corner in 2016. Foltynewicz finished last season with a 4.31 ERA/1.30 WHIP/111 K/35 BB line over 22 starts with the Braves. He joined the big league rotation in May, and even though he had his share of ups and downs, it was clear that he is making improvements. The most notable development was his refined approach to attacking batters and getting ahead in the count. This helped lead him to 2.6 BB per start in 2016, the lowest during his time in the majors.
Velocity is still a crux of Foltynewicz game. His average fastball and sinker velocity were 95+ mph last season. while his slider sat comfortably at 86 mph. He still wins with the heat and the improved control allowed him to maintain an 8.1 SO/9. The next step in his arsenal will be his ability to develop a consistent offspeed pitch. His changeup usage rate climbed as the season progressed and its 25% whiff rates in August and July was promising.
Even though Foltynewicz showed progression last season, it is important to note some problem areas that fantasy owners have to take into consideration. The biggest issue for Foltynewicz, is the injury bug. He missed time in June last season thanks to bone chips and was slowed in September thanks to a calf strain. He also had thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2015, which helped fix a blood clot near his rib cage that was effecting the feeling in his hand.
The bone chips can be worrisome, but once he came back from the injury his numbers did not fall off too drastically. There is also the issue of his propensity to give up the long ball. He surrenderd 18 HR last season, and 17 HR in 2015. While he was able to drop the rate, homers are still a weak spot for him as he still develops an out pitch.
The injury history and the HR issues may scare some fantasy owners off but his batted ball line does not read as though he should be somone to ignore. He posted a 21% LD, 41% GB, 37% FB, 20% Soft, 50% Med, and 30% Hard contact rates last season. The LD and FB rates are respectable, and the GB rate is a definite plus and improvement. Batters squared him up well last season and that led to the high WHIP and HR output. However, his velocity and more attacking approach could lead to such rates as batters still love to hit fastballs and they knew that they were going to see plenty of them.
Fantasy owners should be paying attention to Folty because of the high upside arm and the improved pitching approach. He has the mouthwatering arm talent and the hidden ace level potential that owners covet in the late rounds. Next season may not be the season he puts it all together for the Braves, but the indicators are there for optimism.
Mike Foltynewicz upped his GB rate, is focused on getting ahead in the count now more than ever and has two plus pitches already. He is already an SP4 of SP5 selection heading into drafts this spring sheerly off his potential. Fantasy owners should monitor him this spring to see if he is showcasing an offspeed more as that will be the pitch that takes him to the next level. Do not sleep on Folty heading into the 2017 season.
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