Can Gary Sanchez Live Up to Sky-High Expectations in 2017?
New York Yankees rookie catcher Gary Sanchez has set the bar pretty high with his historic debut. What will he do for a follow up in 2017?
Even the biggest fans of New York Yankees Gary Sanchez have to admit it’s unlikely he can maintain his insane production during the last two months of 2016 over a full season. Sanchez launched an incredible 20 home runs in just 53 games to begin his MLB career, despite never reaching that mark in any full minor league season.
There’s very little chance he can keep that up and hit 60-plus long balls next year. Luckily Sanchez is no one-trick pony. Although he’s had a reputation as something of a hacker in the past, Sanchez showed a remarkably mature approach at the plate after his call up. He walked in 10.5% of his 229 plate appearances in the big leagues this year, a significant improvement over his 8% rate in the minors.
His defense also appears to be much better than advertised. Sanchez has always had the reputation for being lackadaisical about his work behind the plate, but he drew rave reviews from coaches and teammates about his defense, particularly his otherworldly arm strength. Sanchez threw out 13 of 32 attempted base thieves (40.6% CS), and many of those who were successful were the result of pitchers like Dellin Betances who are incredibly slow to the plate.
It’s no small feat for a 23-year-old to take over handling a major league pitching staff in the middle of a season, but Sanchez handled it seamlessly. His pitch calling was notable for its aggressiveness, going right after hitters, especially inside. Even with veterans, Sanchez showed the confidence to go out and calm his pitchers down when they hit rough patches.
In their Depth Charts projections for 2016, FanGraphs predicted a .256/.314/.474 batting line with 26 homers and three WAR if Sanchez were to play 123 games this season. While it would be considered a huge disappointment by many if that were Sanchez’s 2017 production, that honestly doesn’t seem that far off to me, maybe a little low. And you know what? That would still probably make him the best catcher in the American League next year.
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Statcast data suggests that Sanchez’s power output was no fluke for what it’s worth. He ranks in the top 10 of all major league hitters with at least 15 batted balls this year with an average exit velocity of 94.6. Like his teammate Aaron Judge, who had the league’s highest exit velo, the trick is just making consistent contact and showing discipline at the plate.
In his annual end-of-season press conference Wednesday, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman was asked whether he thought Sanchez could replicate his performance down the stretch in 2017, he replied:
It’s hard to expect that and I wouldn’t expect that over the course of a six-month period next year. But I think we have an exciting everyday talent that is going to be one of the best catchers in our game as we move forward, if he stays healthy and stays committed as he’s done the last two seasons now.
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In the span of two months, Sanchez made himself the face of the most famous team in American professional sports. Every Yankees fan around the globe will now expect him to be an immediate superstar next season before he’s even completed one season in the big leagues.
Inevitably, there will be a backlash when Sanchez struggles (and he will), but there is no doubting he has the talent to be one of New York’s stars for the next decade-plus, even if he doesn’t end up challenging Mike Trout for the MVP every year.
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