Chicago Cubs: Over/Under on key players' stats for 2017
The hot stove isn’t particularly warm right now, so let’s do some stat predicting for key Chicago Cubs players for the 2017 season.
Each year FanGraphs releases Dan Symborski’s ZiPS projections. Taking into account a great many factors, these ZiPS projections basically give a realistic estimation of what each individual player will do in 2017. Using this, I’ll give you my over/under on these projections for some of the key cogs on the Chicago Cubs’ roster.
For batters, I’ll give you my over/under for home runs and batting average. As for pitchers, we’ll keep it simple and just look at ERA.
Let’s get started!
Rizzo
Batting Average: .280
I’ll take the over on this one. Anthony Rizzo has solidified his position as the undisputed leader in the Cubs’ clubhouse, and that role has translated well to the field, too. I see another big year at the plate for Rizzo, somewhere around .290 again.
Home Runs: 33
Under seems to be the safe bet here, so that’s what I’ll go with. But not by much. Rizzo matched his career high in home runs last season with 32, and that’s what I see him doing in 2017. I take him at an even 30 for next year.
Russell
Batting Average: .248
Addison Russell has not quite matured into the hitter that many think he can be, but at only 22 years old, that’s alright. He has plenty of time to get there. Russell may not have been consistent at the plate throughout the year, but he did get timely hits, as his 95 RBI in 2016 shows. I think he finishes the year right around .245.
Home Runs: 19
Maybe a bold call, maybe not, but I’m going to say over. Russell has emerged as one of the league’s best power-hitting shortstops, and I see a continuation of that in 2017. Still blossoming as a hitter, I’ll guess he finishes with 26 homers next season.
Bryant
Batting Average: .274
Over. This one seems easy to me. The 2016 NL MVP is just going to keep getting better and better. Last season Kris Bryant showed an ability to hit to all areas of the field, something he didn’t really do during his rookie campaign. I think he’s even better in 2017. I’ll say .309.
Home Runs: 33
Another fairly easy call, I think. I’ll say over, and I’ll predict an even 40 from the young slugger next year.
Heyward
Batting Average: .257
This might be my boldest prediction, but I’m saying over, and I feel rather confident about it. Jason Heyward had an abysmal year at the plate, but I think he comes back new and improved in 2017. He’s already been putting in work to improve his swing. He’ll be considerably more reliable next season. Mark him at .266.
Home Runs: 12
Heyward’s career high in home runs came in 2012 when he hit 27 for the Atlanta Braves. Aside from that, he’s never come close to matching that number. At 27 years old, some believe Heyward still has 20-home run potential, but I don’t see it happening. I’ve got him hitting 9 long balls in 2017.
Schwarber
Batting Average: .243
This is a fun one just because Kyle Schwarber is such a fan-favorite. This will be Schwarber’s first full season, assuming he stays healthy, so it’s hard to know what to expect. I’m going to say over, but not by a lot. I’ve got him hitting about .250 next year, which would be perfectly fine if he mashes a bunch homers.
Home Runs: 28
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As I said, Schwarber’s value is in his power, and I think that power will be in full demonstration in 2017. If Schwarber can play a full year, I think he finishes somewhere in the neighborhood of 43 home runs.
Contreras
Batting Average: .264
Willson Contreras was something of a spark plug for the Cubs in 2016 after he was called up from Triple-A Iowa. He was adamant that once he was called up, he would stay up. Contreras was impressive both at and behind the plate, but perhaps what was most impressive was his attitude. The rookie went full speed at all times and had a fiery edge to his game. I think he hits .273 in 2017.
Home Runs: 14
Contreras has impressive power, and with more playing time, I think we’ll see a lot of it. I have Contreras hitting an even 20.
Baez
Batting Average: 254
I’m going to say over and put him right around .265, but this one is tough because we just don’t know what kind of playing time he’s going to get. If Javier Baez was an everyday player, I think he’d be a .285-ish hitter, but with Ben Zobrist playing a majority of his time at second base, Baez probably won’t be an everyday starter just yet.
Home Runs: 19
Again, this depends on how much playing time he gets. As a regular, I think Baez has the ability to consistently be a 30-home run guy. I’ll say under for right now and put his 2017 home run total at 17.
Zobrist
Batting Average: .267
This seems just about right, but I’ll say under and put him at .265. Ben Zobrist’s numbers are never flashy, but he’s about as consistent and reliable as they come. More of the same in 2017.
Home Runs: 14
Zobrist has decent power from both sides of the plate, but his power numbers don’t jump off the page. I’ll say over and put him at 16.
Lester
ERA: 3.08
After an up and down first year with the Chicago Cubs in 2015, Jon Lester turned on the jets in 2016, even gaining Cy Young consideration. Lester will be entering his age-33 season, but he’s still got plenty left in the tank. I’ll guess he turns in a 2.90 ERA.
Arrieta
ERA: 3.02
This is an interesting one. There have been talks of an extension, but it’s unknown whether that will happen before the start of the season, or at all, for that matter. If an extension doesn’t happen soon, this will be a contract year for Jake Arrieta, and he’ll have to impress if he wants to get ace-type money. I think he’ll find more consistency in 2017, finishing with a 2.85 ERA.
Hendricks
ERA: 3.21
It was somewhat of a fairy tale year for Kyle Hendricks, and I think the clock strikes midnight in 2017. This isn’t to say he’s going to completely fall off. Quite the contrary, actually. I think he’ll continue to be one of the better pitchers in the league, but with a more modest 3.05 ERA.
Lackey
ERA: 3.84
I hate to say it, but I think John Lackey‘s age will be more apparent in 2017. There’s nothing too tricky about his game. He pounds the strike zone and challenges you to do something with it. I have him at about 3.98.
Montgomery
ERA: 3.98
I think Mike Montgomery will finish with a better ERA than 3.98, but how much better depends on whether or not he ends up in the bullpen or the rotation. The consensus at the moment is that he will be the fifth starter, but I’m not convinced of that just yet. I think the Cubs will find themselves a young arm before the season starts. If he’s in the pen, I have him finishing with a 2.80 ERA. If he does end up being a starter, I have his ERA at 3.56.
That’s what I’ve got. 2017 should be another fun season for the Cubs, and a repeat could be in the cards. Be sure to let me know where you disagree and what you think.
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