Chicago Cubs: What could the Cubs lineup be on Opening Day?
Chicago Cubs fans already experienced Christmas this year with the World Series victory. If the team has a chance to repeat, the lineup must step up.
There is no doubt that a new pressure now envelopes the Chicago Cubs. Coming off a year in which pitching and defense led the team to its first championship since 1908, the focus turns to repeating that performance. But, the team cannot rest their hopes on what got them to success in 2016.
To this point, few major changes have occurred on the Cubs’ roster. The loss of Dexter Fowler and Aroldis Chapman opens the door for Albert Almora, Jon Jay, and Wade Davis to play significant roles.
A hole in the starting rotation still remains, yet is expected to be filled by Mike Montgomery. And, while there is hope for Kyle Hendrick to repeat his 2016 performance, it cannot be counted on. Just look at the performances of Jake Arrieta the last two seasons.
The defense should still be stable as many of the starters from last year return. Left field is a concern. Much of that depends on who plays the position. And that may depend on who plays second. On the positive side, the Cubs still have depth. The negative? How do they use it to their advantage?
If the Chicago Cubs wish to repeat as champions of the NL Central, NLCS, and the World Series, it is the offense that needs to step up and perform with consistency. What could the potential lineup look like? Here is one option:
Leading off for the Cubs
Fact: It will be near impossible for the Chicago Cubs to replace Dexter Fowler. His ability to get on-base was crucial to the team’s success. Add to that his positive attitude and defense, the hole left is large. This is why President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein acquired Albert Almora Jr.
Question: Is Almora ready to take over the starting role? He showed glimpses of potential in 2016, offensively and defensively. His batting average and slugging percentages were on par with Fowler’s. And he showed aggressive base running intelligence in the World Series. Still, is he ready?
Enter Jon Jay. Signed to a one-year contract, Jay provides a stop-gap if Almora needs time. With a career split of .287/.352/.384, his ability is similar to that of Fowler’s, though the power numbers are lower. Furthermore, Jay does not strikeout, nor walk, at the same rate of his predecessor. The concern? Jay is coming off of two straight seasons in which he played 90 games or less. But, he is a veteran with experience leading off. That is valuable.
MVP in important role
An All-star. A player with an on-base percentage over .380. He plays infield and outfield. Hit 30+ doubles and 3 triples. And he earned an MVP award.
The World Series MVP Award.
The crafty Ben Zobrist spent a good portion of last year batting fourth. This year, if the team stays healthy, Zobrist would be best suited for the second slot. He works pitchers, takes walks, hits all fields, and runs the bases well. If Jay and Almora get on base in front of him, Zobrist can move them to scoring position with a high degree of success.
And, he is a switch hitter. That sets up the rest of the lineup well. While he may not be playing second base all the time, now that Javier Baez seems ready for everyday playing, his bat is too valuable to the team. Manager Joe Maddon trusts him and will put Zobrist in the lineup daily.
The Avenger
If his play in the postseason proved anything it was that he can hit. And, if he is healthy and ready to play defense, Kyle Schwarber will push the Chicago Cubs lineup from good to stellar. The powerful lefty adds a dimension to the team that few others can boast. Not only does he hit home runs, he scores. In 2015, Schwarber had 57 hits, 16 of which were home runs. He scored 53 times.
More than that, he is wisely aggressive. He is not afraid to take a chance. That pays off sometimes, although we all remember a time in the World Series when it didn’t turn out well. Yet, for his brief career, Schwarber postseason average is .364 with five home runs. That is the best on the roster.
Jay and Zobrist get on, look out. We could be saying “Schwarber Smash!!” a great deal this year.
Cleaning up
Kris Bryant made huge strides last year. Not only did he show his power, he hit for average. If the progress continues, Bryant’s numbers in 2017 will be prodigious. It is possible that he leads the majors in runs, home runs, runs batted in, and average. He was close in several categories in 2016, and with the potential lineup next year, pressure will be on pitchers to make decisions.
Hitting Bryant fourth makes sense. He hits for power, and batting cleanup will provide ample chances to prove that. It also gives Bryant opportunities to walk or hit with runners on base. Even with Fowler ahead of him in 2016, batting second prevented score chances for Bryant. However, he still knocked in 102 runs. Imagine innings with Zobrist and Schwarber on base, one out, and Bryant at the plate.
The potential is scary.
The Nightmare Continues
Is it possible to have a lineup in which the leader of the team bats fifth? Even a power hitting, strike-zone aware, left-handed first baseman? One that was a solid MVP candidate?
Yes. Yes, it is. And it is beautiful.
Think about it. Anthony Rizzo bats fifth, after Schwarber and Bryant. Each provides protection for the other. All can hit for average. They have significant power. But, it also presents a lefty-righty-lefty portion of the lineup that strikes fear in opposing pitchers.
You can easily switch Rizzo and Schwarber in the lineup, but there is value in this setup. With Zobrist ahead and Bryant behind, Schwarber is in prime position to see pitches with runners on. He is not as proven as Bryant and Rizzo, so hitting third will give him chances to hit.
Rizzo in the five spot lengthens the lineup, making pitchers run the gauntlet. And, with runners on base, he knows how to adjust to what he is given and score runs. Finally, he takes walks and runs the bases well.
The Prodigy
No one is talking about him, but he will play a massive role on the 2017 Chicago Cubs roster. Willson Contreras will be the starting catcher. He is still learning the rotation, but his ability to throw runners out cannot be understated.
What is not discussed as much is his offense. As a rookie, learning new pitchers and being asked to play other position, Contreras posted a .282/.357/.488 split in 2016. That is one of the best on the team. Additionally, he hit 10 of his home runs off of right-handed pitchers.
Batting sixth in this lineup is great for Contreras as he should get many chances with runners on base. Can the young catcher be patient and control his aggressiveness while at the plate? If he does, look out.
Don’t Call It a Comeback
Or, do call it a comeback. It needs to be a comeback. After a video surfaced today, signs point to improvements at the plate for Jason Heyward. Truly, it could not get much worse.
Heyward is not small. You would think a man that is 6’5″ and 240 pounds would show some power, or at least the ability to smoke line drives. He didn’t. It seemed like he hit weak ground balls to second base over and over again in 2016.
The Chicago Cubs got the worse offense Heyward had to offer. It was his defense that kept him in the lineup. That will not be the case in 2017. The team must see a Heyward that is closer to his 2015 performance at least. If they get 2012 Heyward numbers, there will be no stopping the Cubs.
Look for a rebound season, with an average closer to .260, 15+ home runs, and 30+ doubles.
Comfort Zone
It is not a demotion, but a promotion. While it may not seem like that, it is.
Addison Russell can produce offensively, as evident by his 21 home runs and 95 runs-batted-in in 2016. Even with that, his average was low. And while the Cubs do not need him to hit .290, any improvement is welcome.
Batting in the eighth spot of the order does two things for Russell. First, in 2016, his splits in this spot was .333/.397/.450, his best of any position in the order. He seemed comfortable there and was successful. It also places him in a spot to either start a rally if no one is on base or move runners to third. If all goes well, Russell gets the Cubs back to the top of the order.
This is a spot for Russell to prove he can hit. It also gives the Cubs an option that no other team in the Major Leagues can boast: a hitter in the eighth spot that can hit 20+ home runs.
The Total Package
It is a thing of beauty, isn’t it. The potential for getting runners on base, moving them over, hitting for power, and scoring an obscene amount of runs. And, it is balanced.
L Jon Jay CF
S Ben Zobrist 2B
L Kyle Schwarber LF
R Kris Bryant 3B
L Anthony Rizzo 1B
R Willson Contreras C
L Jason Heyward RF
R Addison Russell SS
It is not perfect and will rely on individuals improving from previous years. There is no Javy Baez, and that decision will be the hardest of them all. Does Maddon take out Zobrist or Schwarber in favor or Baez? Or even Addison Russell?
There are no givens. Pitchers will have to make hard decisions on how to manage each at bat. One mistake can snowball into crooked numbers in a heartbeat.
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