The Cincinnati Reds are impressively clawing their way into playoff contention
By Jake Mintz
FOX Sports MLB Writer
It’s time to start paying attention to the Cincinnati Reds.
It wasn’t supposed to shake out this way. Once it became apparent to the baseball-watching world a few months into the season that 1) the San Francisco Giants were an inexplicably good baseball team and 2) the National League East consisted of five Little League teams, everyone started penciling in two NL West squads — from among the San Diego Padres, Los Angeles Dodgers and Giants — for the NL wild-card game.
Before the start of play July 1, the Padres had a 6.5-game lead over their closest competitors — which, hilarious as it seems now, were the Chicago Cubs — for the second wild-card spot. The Reds, then a game under .500 at 39-40, were staring up at a seemingly insurmountable 8.5-game gap.
That night, the Reds walked off against the Padres, sparking a hot stretch that has yet to subside.
Now, just six weeks later, the Reds are within sniffing distance of the once-untouchable Padres, only 1.5 games back Wednesday morning, despite a tough Tuesday night loss to the now-lowly Cubbies.
How in the world of Aristides Aquino did this happen?
On one hand, the Padres have really struggled, putting up an 18-22 record since July 1. But it takes two to tango, and Cincinnati has done the requisite dancing. The Reds have caught absolute fire lately, putting together a 26-16 record in that same span.
For the past handful of years, the Reds have been caught in a middle ground of mediocrity. Last season, they had fantastic starting pitching, but their offense was generally abysmal, which killed them in their brief postseason showing, in which they scored a total of zero runs in 22 innings in the first round against Atlanta.
But this season and especially over the past six weeks, the Reds' lineup has taken a monumental leap forward.
Jesse Winker went from good to great, as did Nick Castellanos. The pair of All-Star outfielders has slugged 27% of Cincy’s homers this season.
Kyle Farmer, who felt like a throw-in in that 2018 Puig/Kemp Dodgers deal, has the most hits in baseball since the All-Star break. Rookie backstop Tyler Stephenson has been a top-10 hitting catcher in MLB.
Even Tyler Naquin has 14 homers.
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But throughout the scalding summer stretch that has thrust the Reds back into contention, there have been two gentlemen whose phenomenal performances at the plate have stood out above all others: Joey Votto and Jonathan India.
Let’s start with the rookie. Despite his being the fifth overall pick out of the University of Florida in 2018 (four picks ahead of Kyler Murray – lol), there wasn’t any indication that India would be one of the Reds' best hitters this soon.
Heading into this season, he ranked toward the back half of the top 10 on most Reds prospect lists and had played only 34 games at Double-A back in 2019. And despite hitting well at the team's alternate site in 2020, India never got the call during the COVID Cup.
It took some time for the 24-year-old second baseman to find his rhythm in the bigs this season, but India has been incredible since July 1, posting a 1.024 OPS with 10 homers over that time. Plus, his perpetually wet locks and facial hair situation give him big Captain Jack Sparrow vibes.
With just a month and change left in the season, he’s currently the front-runner to bring home the NL Rookie of the Year Award.
Votto being good at hitting, on the other hand, is nothing new. The beloved franchise icon has been doing this for a while (Votto made his MLB debut one day before my 12th birthday). But over the past few years, it seemed like the sad realities of Father Time were chipping away at the Canadian renaissance man.
After a good — not great — season in 2018, during which he hit only 12 homers (but still led MLB with a .417 OBP), Votto was undeniably average the past two seasons.
But to the delight of baseball neutrals everywhere, the legend known as "Joey Moppo" has successfully turned back the clock. He’s walking less than you’d typically expect from the future Hall of Famer, but at the ripe old age of 37, Votto has rediscovered his power stroke, knocking a jaw-dropping 15 homers since the All-Star break.
His explanation for the power surge? Votto says he’s simply trying to hit home runs every time.
Same here, dude.
On the pitching side of things, the Reds haven’t been quite as dynamite as they were in 2020, but they’ve benefitted from the very simple fact that none of their starters is terrible.
Luis Castillo, who was supposed to be the ace, sucked for the first few months, but he has figured it out recently. Tyler Mahle quietly has the 10th-most strikeouts in baseball. Sonny Gray has been ... fine. And rookie neck-tat icon Vladimir Gutiérrez — who I once saw house two steaks and a plate of sushi at a food truck in Santo Domingo — has been well above average in more than 85 innings of work.
But if we’re looking at a potential starter for a winner-take-all NL wild-card game (and that’s the whole point of this article), it has to be Wade Miley.
Built like a neckbeard, the 34-year-old veteran has been the Reds’ best pitcher by a wide margin this year. In a world that revolves around velocity, Miley has been defying the odds by relying on an 85 mph cutter that he throws 48% of the time.
The six National League starters with ERAs lower than Miley's all have average fastball velocities over 94, and three of the six throw at least 96 mph. Whether Miley’s soft-tossing magic would work against, say, the Dodgers’ juggernaut lineup in a one-game playoff remains to be seen.
But if it comes to that, you have to think he’d be the guy for Cincy.
Even though the Reds still trail the Padres by 1.5 games, they’ve got one enormous card up their sleeve: their remaining schedule. Cincy has four games left against each of the ghost-town Cubs and the haunted-house Washington Nationals, nine against the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates and seven against the cellar-dwelling Miami Marlins.
All in all, the Reds play 27 of their remaining 41 games against teams below .500.
The Padres still have nine games left against the Dodgers, 10 against the Giants and three against the Houston Astros. They play 31 of their last 40 games against teams above .500. Sure, those 19 games against the two teams above them in the NL West could completely rejuvenate the Padres, but they could also sink them.
Over the course of a long MLB season, strength of schedule usually evens itself out, but we're talking about an enormous difference between two clubs battling it out for the same spot. Think about it like this: With your season on the line in the final week, would you rather play a three-game series in San Francisco or Pittsburgh?
No offense to Pirates ace JT Brubaker, but the answer is pretty obvious.
So buckle up, folks.
Just like everyone else, I came into this season guns blazing on the supersonic San Diego Padres and effectively wrote them into the postseason before a game was played.
I’m still bullish on the Fathers, especially with Fernando Tatis Jr. back in the fold, but the scorching Reds have made the Padres — and all of us aboard the brown-and-yellow bandwagon — rethink the race for the second NL wild card.
Jake Mintz is the louder half of @CespedesBBQ and a baseball analyst for FOX Sports. He’s an Orioles fan living in New York City, and thus, he leads a lonely existence most Octobers. If he’s not watching baseball, he’s almost certainly riding his bike. You can follow him on Twitter @Jake_Mintz.
