Major League Baseball

Cody Bellinger's surge spurred Cubs to buy at trade deadline. Should they buy his comeback long term?

Published Aug. 10, 2023 11:29 a.m. ET

NEW YORK — Cody Bellinger looks different now.

No, it's not just the bear-covered Cubs apparel he's embraced since December. It's not him switching his uniform number, either. His familiar perpendicular batting stance, resembling a goalpost, has been adjusted, tinkered with, and, ultimately, reformed. Changes were necessary after the strength and flexibility of Bellinger's front shoulder and back leg diminished from injuries sustained as a homegrown star for the Dodgers — after he shockingly devolved from one of baseball's best hitters to one of its worst almost overnight.

"With my day-to-day work, I feel the most consistent that I've ever felt," Bellinger told FOX Sports this week. "Through those injuries, I learned a lot. I was learning about my body a lot and I think that's really helping me this year. And I can see it helping me for the rest of my career."

Bellinger and the Cubs believe they have unlocked the next phase of his mystifying MLB journey. Chicago, in fact, had enough conviction in Bellinger's comeback to double down on it last week and become buyers rather than sellers at the trade deadline. The about-face — from both him and them — has been one of the sport's best stories this summer. The Cubs' commitment to the center fielder/first baseman, meanwhile, is one that suggests another one could be coming in the offseason.

Bellinger's free agency might prove to be as fascinating as how the rest of his season plays out.

In just a few short months, the Cubs will have to decide on whether to make a competitive offer for the Scott Boras client. Bellinger and the club have a mutual $12 million option for 2024, but there's no way the 28-year-old slugger exercises it. With few quality bats on the market and Bellinger returning to his All-Star form, he'll have multiple suitors lining up for his services this winter and could command a nine-figure deal. Given the depths to which he sank over the previous three seasons, there also will be some hesitancy to spend big on the former MVP.

That's where the evaluation process will be especially interesting for the Cubs. They've seen firsthand the life-altering changes Bellinger has made, from his diet to his sleep and workout schedule. How he consults with a personal trainer and chef, having increased his calorie intake to add 15 more pounds to his 6-foot-4 frame. How his workouts are specifically attuned to his injury-impacted body. How he's stopped beating himself up mentally over mistakes.

All of it has Bellinger feeling as strong as he did in his best days as a Dodger.

"I think all the injuries are going to bless me for the next 8-10 years of my career. I really do," Bellinger said. "What I've learned through the whole process and where I'm at now, I just think I've benefited from it, I've learned from it, and I'm better because of it."

The next chapter of Bellinger's career is understandably on his manager's mind. When I asked David Ross what indicates Bellinger can maintain his current level of play for the rest of season, and for years to come, the fourth-year skipper was pumped to express this crowd-pleasing remark:

"Well, he's not going to be good unless he stays in a Cubs uniform."

Once the laughter died down, it was evident how much Ross not only cares about Bellinger's future, but how much he trusts in his turnaround.

"I think the stuff about Belli that you learn as you watch is his mental toughness," Ross said. "Whether he's having success or failing, he's the same guy every single day."

Sure, it's fair to question if Ross would offer anything but glowing remarks for a player with a 145 OPS+. But the sentiment throughout the organization seems to be Bellinger's bounce back isn't a fluke. It's already changed the complexion of the Cubs' season. Just three weeks ago, they were 8.5 games back in their division and the wild-card race and sure to be offloading veteran assets for prospects. Bellinger, though, was in the midst of his best month in years and the lineup eventually joined him as Chicago entered August the hottest team in baseball. The surge was so great that it prompted the front office to not only take Bellinger off the trade market but surrender prospects to acquire the top available hitter in Jeimer Candelario.

The Cubs' playoff push is as unexpected as Bellinger's resurgence — except to them. His willingness to make adjustments since arriving in Chicago, behavior he wasn't known to exhibit with the Dodgers, has his coaches convinced this reformation is real.

"I think he's identified — we've talked about a number of things like health, putting on weight, and finding the best version of himself with his swing and his timing, and then having that confidence," Ross said. "But what keeps him afloat even when he's struggling is the hand-eye. The ability to play pepper — not strike out, hit the ball the other way, put the ball in play — is really valuable. I don't think we talk about that a whole lot."

Playing pepper has increased Bellinger's hand-eye coordination, and in turn improved his timing in the box. It's something the Cubs identified early. Bellinger began working with hitting coach Dustin Kelly within two weeks of signing in December, thanks to each spending their offseasons in Arizona. They learned that the key to Bellinger's quicker reflexes comes from his setup. When Bellinger stays on his backside a little longer, it leads to better control of the zone.

"He's always going to step in the bucket," Kelly told FOX Sports. "His hips move incredibly fast. But the way he creates a lot of that torque is the way his hips work, and he keeps his shoulders really square. We've always identified that, I kind of knew that from the Dodger days. But getting his setup into that spot and working from there was a really big key for him. And then it just really became, be really consistent. Make sure that the setup is almost exactly the same all the time."

That approach explains why Bellinger has been particularly good with two strikes. In fact, only MLB batting leader and reigning AL batting champion Luis Arráez has been better when down to his last strike. Entering Wednesday, the league as a whole was hitting .171/.248/.271 (.235 wOBA) with two strikes. Bellinger was at .304/.343/.446 (.340 wOBA).

It's night and day from 2022, when Bellinger's .141 mark with two strikes was 27 points below MLB's average. Even in his 2019 MVP campaign, Bellinger was nowhere even near the top-20 averages with two strikes. That version of Bellinger had a very different hit profile — he was looking to drive everything — en route to slugging .629 and 47 home runs. The current iteration is much more situational, as evidenced by the lefty flashing his lowest career strikeout rate (15.4%) in 2023.

"He's added more to his game," Kelly said. "He still has the power, he still has the slug, but I think he's added some of the two-strike, and he's added some of the bat-to-ball and that's carried him in some stretches where he hasn't felt great. And as he gets deeper into counts, he's able to down his swing a little bit, or downshift. It's not like a contact only, put the ball in play. He still has an aggressive swing that he can really flatten out."

Many hitters are feel-oriented, swayed by their senses on a given day and how the matchup looks against that game's pitcher. But Bellinger has been able to find success since returning from the injured list in June by being more mechanical. His priority is remaining consistent in his movements, day in and day out. By listening to his body, the remaining factors in the box stay the same no matter the opponent, the ballpark he's playing in, or the temperature that day. It might seem like a simple approach, but patience and diligence have admittedly not always come easy to Bellinger.

The numbers demonstrate that his work behind the scenes is paying off. He's one of just four players this season with at least 15 home runs, 15 stolen bases and a .300 batting average, joining the likes of Ronald Acuña Jr., Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani. Bellinger owns the third-best OPS (1.133) in baseball since July and was recently named the NL Player of the Month after producing nearly identical numbers (.400 average, eight home runs, 24 RBI, 1.122 OPS) to AL recipient Ohtani (.282 average, nine home runs, 14 RBI, 1.152 OPS).

Neither Bellinger nor the Cubs have let up since the calendar flipped to August — Chicago sits 0.5 games back of a playoff bid and 2.5 back in the NL Central — which should make for a gripping finish to the season. While their brief union couldn't be going better, a reunion this winter would require some tough decisions.

Aside from the money, where exactly would he play? The organization's No. 1 prospect, Pete Crow-Armstrong, is expected to make his MLB debut as soon as next year. Regarded as one of, if not the best defensive prospect across the minor leagues, PCA will almost certainly slot in at center field once the Cubs call him up. Seiya Suzuki, meanwhile, is seemingly locked in at right field for the next few years. Bellinger could move to first base regularly, but that takes away from the former Gold Glove winner's defensive value. It'd also block top prospect Matt Mervis.

Finally, can Bellinger really sustain this rebound?

On the one hand, it’s reasonable for the Cubs to think so, especially given how Kelly and the rest of the staff have tapped into a different style of offensive prowess from the seventh-year veteran. It’s also understandable for them, or any front office, to question if one revived season (in a walk year, no less) promises more of them. The dilemma springs to mind the Dodgers, the gold standard for player development, non-tendering Bellinger last winter while intimating he needed a change of scenery after posting a 75 OPS+ over the previous three seasons.

"(It was) not necessarily feeling like the underlying talent had changed as much as just what the odds were of us being able to unlock it together," Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said of Bellinger in April. "Just with the same voices and not having a great feel for what would be different to make it a bet that we felt great about for 2023."

It took only a few new voices and a few months for Bellinger and the Cubs to unlock that talent again. It might be tougher for them to figure out whether this second city should be his baseball home.

Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.